cny rider

3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

I feel bamboozled. 

Don't get suckered in by these storms.

If the low heads for Jamestown and there isn't a new surface low forming on the coast, these never work out for us.

Sometimes there is front end snow but inevitably you end up dry slotted, 33F and drizzling.

31F with a mix of sleet and freezing rain.

The roads are rapidly acquiring a treacherous glaze.

1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yep.. But tread very cautiously!!!!

I live right above the lower number 7 on this map.

We shall revisit at 2 pm tomorrow when it is 33F and drizzling......

1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Thinking this storm has a high bust potential...."noses of warm air" usually end up over-performing around here with these modeled tracks....

3 inches on my point and click.

I am definitely betting the under.

32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We need a major pattern shift. It’ll come at some point

Typically around April 1. 

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

With the good ol' sizzle SW winds Sizzlecuse, the least wintry-temperature place of Upstate NY, is already at the forecasted high of near 50 degrees. Always, ALWAYS warmer here than forecasted and only a degree or two cooler than the heavily metropolitan NYC/Long Island. The Newark of New York.

I just got back from a glorious bicycle ride.

If it’s not going to snow this isn’t a bad way to be.

The Sabres and the Bills have come up on the short end of some horrible officiating this week.

How do you not call PI when Diggs gets mugged in the end zone and then get baited into calling imaginary PI on Wallace?

Just brutal.

30 minutes ago, Polarbear said:

Yeaaa...Ill try to keep it as short as possible..
For the 10+ yrs ive lived here we had always been friendly, talked maybe 1 or 2x's a month.  We helped each other with simple little projects around our property's You know neighborly stuff.. I live out in a rural area, one neighbor to my east and nothing to my west or across the street for 1/2 mile.
We left to get take out dinner on a Sat about 430, with my gf car in the driveway, Noted my neighbor outside working in the yard per usual. I have a sunroom where we leave the dogs when we are gone with a doggy door to come in and out and I have about about 3/4 of my 1.5 acre lined with PetStop invisible fence. Which they were trained on and never EVER left the yard.
So we came home about 615 saw my neighbor was gone and immediately knew something was up as the pups didnt come out to greet us. Her dog was there, obviosuly mine was not. Spent the next several hrs til about midnight looking around the area. Well about 1000 my neighbor came home so I went right over to talk to him.
Tell him that Hogan was missing and did you see anything.
He said "oh no I've been gone since mid afternoon"
Me- Really cause I saw you when we left at 430 and I think I saw you on the main rd like 5 mins before we got back.
Him- No I was shopping in Rochester(noted that he had nothing in his hands for shopping) YEa, I dont know probably the coyotes called him over the fence and attacked him.(if anyone knew my dog you'd know that would never happen. He wasnt much for other animals like Im not to most people, almost like he was introvert like me) This also struck me as odd cause that seemed like 0-100, also found it odd that he never commented hope ya find him, let me know if you need any help etc. just the coyote comment.
At this point he was obviously trying to get away from me and inside. Turning around I noted what seemed like fur on him. HE only has cats and one thing about Hogan is he would shed 24/7/365.
Fast forward to next morning I slept maybe an hr and at 330 I go outside to walk around and see if I can hear anything. I eventually took a causal stroll past my neighbors escape looking around the interior and the back seat was covered in what sure looked like fur. Regrettably I didnt take a photo not knowing if it would do me anything good or get me in trouble.
Spend all morning with both families out looking for about 6hrs and nothing. As the morning wore on and I was talking more about my interaction with said neighbor the more suspicious I got. About 1 pm I sent everyone home because I didnt know what else to do. The night before I was convinced he wasnt in the area because he just didnt have that much ambition but i was even more convinced by noon Sunday.
I hadnt eaten in over a day by this point and need comfort food(pizza/wings) As im pulling out the driveway my phone rings and it was the microchip company calling to say they had just gotten a ping on his chip(I had reported him missing to them earlier in the morning) at the Verona animal shelter in Rochester. ABout this time I got a call from said shelter as well. I couldnt believe it and made the lady text me a picture of him. As the crow flies its about 34 miles to where he was found in someones back yard who called it in. It was not a great area of the city either. I wonder if he was hoping he become a bait dog or something...
He was missing his collar with his tags but the 250 dollar collar with the invisible fence receiver was still on him(probably hoping it was shocking him)
Anyways I got him back the next day, called troopers told them everything and plead my case.It'd be pretty brave to drive by and just  come into a driveway and swipe a dog with cars in the drive. Plus the dogs dont lay in an area thats visible from the rd when driving by. In 11.5yrs Ive been here ive had maybe 3 pull in and turn around so that opportunity seems unlikely. I even told them about the fur in the car.
Plus why wouldnt you take both dogs!! TO which I figure Hogan was familar with this guy and would like go right to him where as Maggie didnt know him really and was more like to bark and retreat. It seemed really convenient and stupid that he was found in Roc right where he had just come from.  The few other houses in the area are either older people or younger families with their own dogs.  Everything just seemed to come back to him. The trooper pressed him but he wouldnt confess( I wasnt there but thats what the trooper came back and told me) Also commented how he got really weird when the trooper said we had got Hogan back. But without any confession or video I was SOL... I did go through his garbage that week looking for the collar but no luck.
Anyways ever since then if he's out walking or in his yard and Im driving by  he will look down or away when I get close enough. He stops mowing his yard if I start to mow mine. The other day he just turned around and stared at the wall of his garage as I drove by real slow. MY goal is to make him as uncomfortable as possible going forward. I've of course got a few cameras now and im in the process of getting even more...
 

Holy s**t that's an awful story.

I'm glad you got your dog back.

25 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Well said. And with Covid dramatically changing how the world does business and speeding up the transition to e-commerce and telecommuting, the Upstate region stands to benefit significantly and I could definitely see many areas of Upstate transitioning to a knowledge-based economy going forward given our relatively low cost of living along with the other factors you mentioned. 

We’ll see how this plays out in the rural areas.

My county (Otsego) just showed another decline in population in the 2020 census.  That’s two decades in a row now.

Our schools have declining enrollment.  Businesses struggle to survive and in particular the last 2 years, many haven’t.

We can’t find enough workers, skilled and unskilled alike, to support our health care facilities, schools, and businesses.

Something has got to change or it’s going to be tumbleweeds here soon.

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

To my surprise I woke up to about an inch of paste. I'll take it

Same here.  Sloppy.  Drove off our hill into the valley and there is nothing.  

8 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Their vaccination checks are a joke. Literally look at the front of your vax card for one second, don’t ask for ID to confirm your identity, don’t look at the back of the vaccine card. I feel like I could have shown them my tops bonus card and they would have said good to go. 

I'm going to the Rangers game at MSG Saturday night.  I'll report back on how the security is there.

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Constantly putting citizens in a state of anxiety... they're awful.

It's best for everyone to stop watching the news..

This right here is the key, especially with it causing you anxiety.

Decide how much you want to consume and stick to it.  For me it's an hour two in the morning reading newspapers online and Bloomberg. 

After that, I don't pay attention.  

Find better things to do and don't let it get to you.

11 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Appreciate you sharing your experience. I'm fully vaccinated and I've contemplated getting the booster shot. Haven't gotten it yet. Might, might not, I just haven't made that decision.

I am tired of the mask mandates and lockdowns overseas. At this point, we should be able to go out in public at our own discretion. It's fatal to keep dragging this out. The lockdowns have done nothing to help at this point. Time to let people do what they want. Can't control it. I'd rather take risks and not continue to allow the government to restrict personal freedom.

What limits are you experiencing?

Honest question.

I go wherever I want, whenever I want.  I can mask if I want, and not mask when I want.  Except for work where I am stuck with a mask (healthcare).

My life is pretty normal and has been for over a year.

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Bills had a solid game, really going to suck if we lose White. Looked like an ACL issue. Going to need him against the Pats and Bucs.

I'm not sure that game told use much about the Bills.

The Saints are so depleted by injuries, that are nothing like the Saints team that took the field week 1.  I don't know if that Saints team could beat the Jets right now.

The White injury could be the biggest thing that happened last night.

Next week is what it's all about:  The Patriots!

12 hours ago, tim123 said:

So much for vaccine working. Lol

The vaccine works.

It’s the humans who don’t get it who are dragging this out for all of us.

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone get the booster yet? Any side effects?

I had it last week.

Minor stiff neck and sore arm.

Which was fine with me because the second dose of Moderna  had made me feel miserable for 24 hours with fatigue and body aches and a fever.

For Moderna at least I think the half dose makes it easier.

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

Unfortunately, the boosters were not 'tuned' for Delta. They are basically the same as the first doses. However, I read some of the data and it appears that a 'boost', especially for those with weaker immune responses to the original vaccines, can bring the efficacy back up into the 80s% range for Delta.

Think about this for a moment, there is some good news about the Delta variant. Because it's so contagious, it's taken over 95+% of the new cases. It would take an even more contagious version to overtake it OR a variant that is majorly resistant to the current vax - BOTH of these scenarios can be prevented by getting every available vaccine to large 3rd world populations to prevent the India-level event that spawned Delta (I don't particularly like the WHO, but they are absolutely right about this one). Every wealthy country should be flying BUS LOADS of vaccines to these areas EVERY DAY.

If all stays status quo in the world, Delta will burn out and COVID 19 will finally be behind us by end of mid-Spring (my guess).

Can I get an AMEN?

I love your optimism and I hope it goes this way but I have my doubts.

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone know how to check weather conditions for each game this season? I've gone to every game except Miami and only remember the home opener being somewhat nice out. It has been windy and moderate/heavy rain every other game. Our RBS suck so it puts us at a massive disadvantage. I love going to games in the snow, but think ill be voting for a dome with the new stadium.

I can't tell if our RB's really suck or if it's the offensive line being so bad that kills the run game.

The RB's are typically getting wrapped up right at or even before the line of scrimmage.

And on defense:  I can't tell you exactly what Star does on every play, he's kind of a quiet guy but he has a huge impact.  The defense is so much better particularly against the run when he is in there.

14 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

Time to start hitting the panic button, or just a bump in the road?

I'm close to punching the panic button.

The offensive line is a sieve.  Josh is handling that poorly.

And one stupid undisciplined penalty after another.  What happened to "the process"?

The Bills were so putrid today nobody can bear to even speak of it here LOL.

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

Only about 1/2" of snow last night, but it stuck to everything, including roads.  cny_rider, bike ride this morning?

I have the day off so no commute to work.  But I probably would have had to drive.  It looks slick in front of our house.

Were the ground frozen this would be a fantastic day for fat bike riding on the trails.

But it's all so muddy now.

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

While we def are looking at the storm for the start of Tgiving week and hoping for wintry weather. There are more implications to the overall pattern than meets the eye. Whether it's rain or snow, or no storm, we need that deep trough that neg tilts to materialize. That trough is a good representation of a cyclonic wavebreak that fuels the development of the -nao mid to late tgivng week.

First frame we can see the deep trough starting to neg tilt. Can also see the ridge building out ahead of the neg tilt trough

neg tilts some more, more ridging building up into southeast Canada

finally, cylconic wavebreak completed. Note the massive ridge built into Davis straits

Why would you look at dynamic tropopause pressure as opposed to say 500 mb?

Thanks.

Really enjoying your posts.

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

About 1" on elevated surfaces overnight.  Roads were fine.

Same here.

The pines and spruce have a mid-winter look.

2 hours ago, matt8204 said:

When the refs are as bad as they've been in some matchups, it's only natural that people start to wonder if these games are on the level.  That "taunting" penalty last night was an abomination, especially at such a critical juncture in the game.  The league needs to revisit the rule in the offseason.  

I think waiting for the offseason is waiting too long.

I would get the officials all on a conference call this week and tell them to cut the crap taunting calls out now.  For the sake of the game and the rest of this season.

53 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Bills game was horrific.  Worst game I’ve had to watch in years… Offense looks lost…

That was an absolute S***- Show.

The offensive line might as well have stayed in Buffalo and skipped the trip.