cny rider

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened.

We hit -9F the morning after Thanksgiving here.  I mused to my wife that we might have set our low for the winter in November.  It's very possible.

The change over to snow already on the Tug is encouraging but I'm still betting big on the under for this event.

Just too warm.

You're a good man.

I hope you get to visit Tug Hill some time and enjoy the real thing in all its glory.

Beautiful fluffy snow here in central Otsego County, falling at a moderate rate.

Eyeballing about 1.5 inches so far on the patio.

I like our chances for jackpotting here.

My last few trips to Toronto I decided I couldn't take the traffic any more.

The solution I found is take the QEW to just outside Hamilton, park at the Aldershot GO station and take the train to Union Station.

Blissful compared to the drive.  Sit on the train and read in relative peace.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It crashes as it develops, but that is a Catskills and Dacks event. Not SNE.

We'll post plenty of pics for you guys and gals.

Nice shot!

We had slightly less snow here in central Otsego County but still enough to whiten the ground and cover the porch.  There was also some nasty black ice on the driveway and the roads.

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Colors really starting to blossom here, went up to Watertown the other day to some awesome colors, caught me off guard lol I may have to take my first trip to the Adirondacks to see beauty at its best..

I’d say for my part  of CNY this year is a fail for foliage.

More  than 50% of the leaves already down and colors have been underwhelming to say the least.

Mostly muted yellows and browns.

Im not sure why.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There are no feather legged freaks in my flock.

My Brahmas are taking serious offense to this comment......

I'm getting pessimistic on fall foliage here in upstate NY.

So far we have had a lot of red and sugar maples just turn yellow/brown and lose their leaves rapidly.

Nothing else is really showing much color.  We usually reach peak at my place just after Columbus Day weekend and I don't see it happening this year.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks wet across Eastern New York. I'll be in Lake Placid, hopefully don't get too much rain need to climb some peaks!

That’s funny, we are coming home tomorrow morning after 5 days in Keene Valley.

We lucked out for hiking weather.  No days lost to rain.  

Took our kids up Giant, Porter, Cascade and Indian Head.  We brought passports anticipating heading to Montreal if it rained but it never happened.

The drought is definitely noticeable up here, compared to home in Otsego County where we have had plentiful rainfall.

Lots of dry brown dead grass up here, and the streams are all low.

Counting the minutes to the cold front tonight.

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First check on area this season....looks like we're in the middle of the pack though skewed a little more toward the lower melt years in the post-2007 environment. We're about 30k above 2017 and about 150k below 2014.

2012's freefall was already well under way...2018 is currently 500k above 2012 at this point. There's still time though....for example, 2007 was still only 25k lower than 2018 at this point, but it went nuclear over the next 10 days losing nearly 1.5 million sq km of area...an average of about 150k per day. Not sure 2018 has the weather forecast in its favor to do anything like that.

 

For anyone new in here, we usually track SSMI/S area in June because it has a much higher correlation to the minimum extent in september than June extent does. The reason is meltponding...the SSMI/S sensors get fooled by meltponding so the area concentration falls. Because of this, it is giving us a measurement of meltponding which is an excellent predictor of minimum ice extent. I'll usually make a prediction of final minimum extent and area based on the area numbers at the end of June. They have worked quite well over the years with a notable exception in 2016.

Thank you for that explanation re:  tracking area in June.

4F here this morning.

Went through the woods to check on our pond yesterday.  Big mistake going without snowshoes.  A foot of dense snow pack on the ground.  

About 5 inches fresh here.

I don't know if any of you cross country ski but these are the best conditions we have had in years.  The last 2 weeks have been great, and today is off the charts.

4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Precip is falling, but not quite sure of the type, lol!  Precip shield is blossoming as well, pretty rapidly I might add, to our South and East, and I'm pretty confident that we will see some heavier returns cross the area some time this evening, through the overnight.  Nam's composite reflectivity data really doesn't match up with the current surface map nor does the H850 LP.

Yes the precip over PA is solid with a good amount to the west.....I'm not counting this one out, based on the current radar picture.

BGM went up to a WS warning for us in Otsego County and one tier of counties to our west.

Fun times!

We skied Plattekill today.

Outstanding conditions, powder everywhere.  Felt like we were in Utah.

14 inches settled on the ground here in Hartwick.

That band over the Catskills is just sick!