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Tyler Penland

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Everything posted by Tyler Penland

  1. Tyler Penland
    Worth noting for the northern mountains at least the 3km NAM was a good improvement on snow. Basically no rain along the front just a snow squall. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  2. Tyler Penland
    The HRRR is on drugs. Has Boone to -12 at the end of its run with a -39 wind chill. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  3. Tyler Penland
    Yep pretty dry. Looks like a decent amount of moisture at 850mb behind the front. Should keep the NWFS going for a little while. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  4. Tyler Penland
    Looking at the 3km NAM a quick change to snow with the actual frontal passage appears pretty likely. I'm concerned it'll be a bit moisture starved but ratios will go from 0-100 real quick. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  5. Tyler Penland
    New minimum for Boone on the 12z GFS is -7. I'm curious to see if this verifies or not. The Euro is about 10 degrees warmer. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  6. Tyler Penland
    The CMC has been harping on this for several runs now. It's the most amped and is mostly rain except some zr/ip in the mountains.
  7. Tyler Penland
    The GFS has been trending in the right way for the past couple days. I think Met pointed out the CMC is actually beating the gfs/euro in the long range. Here's hoping. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  8. Tyler Penland
    Coldest run of the GFS for Boone yet. From 33 to 1 from 6-12z Friday and down to -1 by afternoon. Bottoms out at -3. Ive actually never seen below zero temps so that would be a first for me. Brrrrrrrrrr Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  9. Tyler Penland
    Negative. I peeked outside earlier to check when I seen them. Was hoping for flurries. Probably getting eaten up by the dry air. Currently 29/22. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  10. Tyler Penland
    Worth noting the NWFS on the backside looked better on this run of the GFS. I think border areas over 5k easily get a foot. Gonna be wringing a lot of moisture out. I'm also interested to see if this trends towards a temps-outrun-the-precip deal with a change to snow before the main frontal band actually moves out over the mountains. That cold push is SHARP. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  11. Tyler Penland
    Yeah the 3k looks weird. Not sure why it isn't kicking more moisture up. Issue is a wicked dry slot in the mid levels but the 12km and 32km don't have that issue. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  12. Tyler Penland
    New NAM coming in drier. Still really really close. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  13. Tyler Penland
    Classic case of globals severely underestimating the northern precip shield. Nothing has changed since 2014 with that trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see totals go up even more. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  14. Tyler Penland
    And the Sat/Sun system can very very easily trend in our favor as well.
  15. Tyler Penland
    6z GFS another small improvement with this little wave on Christmas. It won't be much but could give a lot of the region some light snow on Christmas Day itself. Edit: actually a significant improvement at 500. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  16. Tyler Penland
    I've actually got some flurries right now. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  17. Tyler Penland
    Yeah seems to have taken a tiny step in the right direction but I might be seeing things. That next wave also has my attention for the 25/26. The 500mb charts look completely different for that one from 18z to 0z. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  18. Tyler Penland
    Even with these cutters the NW flow on the backside means business. Obviously not great the farther you get from the border but I think most everyone here would still do decent. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  19. Tyler Penland
    I'm not sure how many times the Euro has to bury waves out west incorrectly before people realize it's really not that great at it, especially day 5-7. I swear 75% of the other thread just wants something negative to latch onto. I've peeked in there a couple times, that kind of roller coaster emotion would not be good for my health lol Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  20. Tyler Penland
    Not if some of these model runs have anything to say about it. Nothing says crap roads like a foot of snow followed by multiple days well below freezing.
  21. Tyler Penland
    Also seeing stations in Blowing Rock up towards Deep Gap falling towards freezing pretty quick. Several stations sitting at 32.7 right now. Also of 2045 First stations around Aho just dropped below freezing. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  22. Tyler Penland
    Watching the temperature swings during these wedge systems is fascinating. We sit right on the edge and have had the temp bouncing like a ball since mid afternoon. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
  23. Tyler Penland
    Also that's a crazy deep Christmas trough on the 18z GFS. Nearly sub-zero across the mountains.
  24. Tyler Penland
    RNK really downplaying any ice potential across NW NC and south/central VA tomorrow night. NAM is way overdone as usual but I have a hard time believing its going to bust that badly further north in areas where it shows predominately a snow/sleet event over a large part of VA. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Regardless might be a slick commute in on Thursday morning along the NW escarpment.
  25. Tyler Penland
    Yeah I'm not completely ruling this out. It would definitely be a localized event but the 12km develops a weak surface low which is just enough to drag lower DPs in from VA. Could spell trouble from Blowing Rock up through Mt Airy during the morning commute Thursday. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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