HRRR is right never. Except tonight when it drew the rod up the azz line perfectly to the southwest .
3 severe warnings last 4 days
.14 total from all 3
If you look at many of the ensembles (Aifs) as an example. They build a WAR along the East coast. It’s not gonna be 100 but looks solidly above normal . I mean it’s back into the 90’s later next week
That kind of shows the concerns. Very narrow area of big rains . With sharp cutoff not far north . Convective processes gonna F with models until Monday morning runs . Hopefully an inch here
Hopefully HRRR is wrong with the storms tonight missing here to the south and instead we actually get some rain . If that happens and they get crushed 5-10 miles SW I may light fireworks into neighbors windows. For now radar looks semi promising