snowlover2

3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid afternoon...as the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!

It was September 2008.

38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Forgot to attach the 3 km NAM before

Nice looking band going through IN/OH/MI.

Looks like 12z Euro just misses a phase. Cristobal just a little too quick.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't mind the faster timing.  Might as well maximize the wind potential around here with some diurnal assistance.

Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that.

Updated day 2 remains the same but there is a mention of possible increase in probs being needed for lower lakes area.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION...THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...THE OHIO  
VALLEY...THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, AS WELL AS ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS, AND ACROSS  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
AMPLIFIED, NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (CURRENTLY EAST OF  
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST) IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH  
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND CONSOLIDATE WITH TROUGHING OVER QUEBEC,  
WHERE A DEEP EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL LOW MAY EVOLVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY  
TO TREND MORE ZONAL, BUT REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
TO THE WEST, STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ZONAL, AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S, FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS AN EMBEDDED LOW  
AMPLITUDE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.  
BORDER, THE WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO SPLIT DOWNSTREAM, WITH A WEAKER  
BRANCH OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER  
MISSOURI VALLEY.  
 
BENEATH THIS REGIME, MODELS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF WARM ELEVATED  
MIXED-LAYER AIR (EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN)  
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND MID  
ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY.  
THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE  
PRECEDED BY MOISTENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IT  
APPEARS THAT A COMBINATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO  
THE MID 60S+ ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY  
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSOURI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE MAINTAINED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGHING  
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION  
 
AT LEAST SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW  
(30-50+ KT) IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY  
GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL AS IT MIGRATES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IMPULSE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT DOWNSTREAM  
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR  
RE-INTENSIFICATION, AND THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,  
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING  
THE EXTENT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE PRIMARY  
UNCERTAINTY RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF 15 PERCENT SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES. IF MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP,  
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED.  
   
..MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY  
 
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK, MODEST, BROADLY  
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE  
TO THE EVOLUTION OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM  
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC  
PROFILES EXHIBITING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE  
PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND  
WIND IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  
   
 
 
..KERR.. 06/02/2020  
 

44 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

1630 update: 30% hail probabilities trimmed away from us, 5% TOR removed, but hatched area added to 30% wind.

Enhanced area also expanded into west MI.

New day 2

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST  
STATES/DELMARVA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA.  
   
..OVERVIEW  
 
AN EXTENSIVE WEST/EAST ZONE OF SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED  
ON WEDNESDAY, INFLUENCED BY A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA, AND A  
SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS.  
   
..NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS  
 
A BELT OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL  
INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH  
AND/OR SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT. THIS INCLUDES WESTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. OTHER  
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS IN VICINITY OF NORTHEAST  
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT LEAST ISOLATED  
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
STRONG WIND GUSTS PROBABLE. INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THERE IS  
THE POSSIBILITY THAN AN MCS OR AT LEAST SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS COULD  
PERSIST AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR THE  
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. IF SO, A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT.  
   
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES  
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATED BELT OF STRONG  
CYCLONICALLY CURVED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT (40-55 KT AT 500  
MB) WILL OVERLIE A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING FRONT. THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, AND  
THIS CONVECTION AND RELATED CLOUD COVER CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY 1)  
REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND 2) A PREFERRED  
CORRIDOR OF ANY HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
THAT SAID, MODERATE BUOYANCY (UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS  
PLAUSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH OF ANY RESIDUAL  
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY  
INCREASE/INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE EFFECTIVE  
FRONT. THE STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND 40+ KT EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH  
WELL-ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS AND  
SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO  
REMAIN VEERED IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH COULD YIELD A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
   
..MIDWEST INCLUDING MISSOURI TO OHIO  
 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT,  
WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION (3000+ J/KG MLCAPE) EXPECTED  
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  
SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NOT  
BE OVERLY STRONG, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ROUGHLY 20-30 KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS  
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL.  
 
..GUYER.. 06/02/2020

Eastward shift of the enhanced area on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE  
POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
   
..MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES  
 
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH  
ALONG THE AB/SK BORDER, EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MT. SOUTHERN EXTENT  
OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY  
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE, THEN ADVANCE INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI - INTO SOUTHERN MN - SOUTHEASTERN SD  
BY 18Z, THEN DRAPE ITSELF FROM CENTRAL WI - MN/IA BORDER - CENTRAL  
NE BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS  
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH 22Z BUT CONVECTION  
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT A FEW HOURS  
EARLIER WHERE SHORT-WAVE FORCING IS MORE NOTABLE. LATEST CAMS  
SUGGEST ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE OVER EASTERN  
SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST ALONG/NEAR THE  
FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHERN MN. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION INTO CENTRAL WI AND THERE IS INCREASING  
CONFIDENCE THAT EARLY-AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE  
ADVANTAGE OF THIS DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY AND INGEST MOIST/UNSTABLE  
BOUNDARY-LAYER INFLOW. IF SO, ROBUST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY  
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A  
FEW SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL COULD  
OCCUR, BUT MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OTHERWISE, IF AN  
MCS EVOLVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WI INTO LOWER MI AFTER SUNSET, POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO  
NORTHERN OH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

Updated day 2 sees the enhanced area expanded more into central WI and a touch south into northern IA.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME  
EAST-CENTRAL SD INTO FAR NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE  
GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
AN ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL NORTHERN-STREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/IMPULSES MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES ATOP A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..SD/NE INTO LOWER MI  
 
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE MID-MO  
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TO  
PERHAPS NEAR 70 F ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER  
MI INTO CENTRAL MN AND SOUTHEAST SD MIDDAY TUESDAY. STRONG HEATING  
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8  
C/KM) WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES FROM  
2000-4000 J/KG. MEANWHILE, A BAND OF 35-45 KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR  
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR A TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTHEAST  
SD EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.  
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT STORMS INITIALLY  
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (SOME POTENTIALLY BIGGER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER), AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH IS ENHANCED NEAR  
THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, A COUPLE OF  
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF INITIATION AS FRONTAL  
FORCING INCREASES, AND AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/COLD POOL PRODUCTION  
BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN  
IA, FAR SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WI/MI DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
   
 
   
..LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY  
 
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN NY/PA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING  
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY  
AFTERNOON, AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG THE EASTERN  
EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO  
NORTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA/NY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS  
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 06/01/2020  
 

Day 3 has a slight risk over a large part of the southern sub.

Quote

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0242 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST  
STATES.  
   
..NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS  
 
A BELT OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION  
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS  
VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST  
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND AT LEAST  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE. INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS COULD  
PERSIST AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR  
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
   
..MIDWEST INCLUDING MISSOURI TO OHIO  
 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT,  
WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION (3000+ J/KG MLCAPE) CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF  
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING  
FOR ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NOT  
BE OVERLY STRONG, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ROUGHLY 20-35 KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS  
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.  
   
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES  
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATED BELT OF STRONG  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERLIE A  
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING FRONT. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS PLAUSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH SEVERE  
STORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING  
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND 40+ KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH  
SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE  
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
..GUYER.. 06/01/2020

An enhanced area has been added to southern MN and parts of west WI on the new day 2. Severe storms could be possible again on Wednesday farther south across IL/IN/OH.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST INCLUDING EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY  
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR  
SPANNING FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN.  
 
A FLATTENING/STRENGTHENING BELT OF NORTHERN-TIER WESTERLIES (50+ KT  
AT 500 MB) WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER VICINITY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH AROUND 70F  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED NEAR A WSW/ENE-ORIENTED FRONT THAT  
WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN  
EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED CAPPING WILL  
TEND TO HINDER DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE  
OTHERWISE CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR THE FRONT AS  
INHIBITION ERODES BY TUESDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO  
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY  
MID/LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF  
POTENTIAL EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LEAD TO  
SOME TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES. REGARDLESS, AN INCREASE IN  
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE  
FRONTAL ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR (30-45 KT EFFECTIVE) WILL BE MAXIMIZED  
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS  
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT 2+ INCH) SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY.  
HOWEVER, STORMS WILL LIKELY CLUSTER/ORGANIZE AND GROW UPSCALE DURING  
THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE DAMAGING WIND  
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY  
REACH THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
 

One year ago at this time we heard the words for the first time ever from ILN, this is a TORNADO EMERGENCY for Montgomery County!!!

Tornado watch up across central IA.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 229  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
120 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL IOWA  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL  
800 PM CDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN  
MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, POSING A  
LOCALIZED RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES  
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MASON CITY  
IA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE  
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did something happen to tropicaltidbits?

It's weird for me because on my laptop I can initially go to the site and go to GFS but when I go to change to another model or setting I get a message saying can't reach the page. If I go on my phone and go to the site there is no problems.

Can't believe it's been a year already. Don't think I've ever had such a quick change of emotions like that night. Went from not worrying much to getting a little nervous as tornado warnings got closer to very nervous as the tornado really wound up near Trotwood to scared shitless as I hear this is a Tornado Emergency! First time I feared for my life from a tornado since I knew it would be very close. Luckily for me it stayed just a half mile north of me. Started to breath again only to see another confirmed tornado near Vandalia headed SE toward me. Really long night and one i'll never forget.

40 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It is 84 in Dayton, 6 degrees isn't impossible

It is when you have cloud cover and pop up storms in the area. In fact it dropped to 83 and light rain which means game over as far as 90 goes.

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are forecast 90 today, so no.

Yeah 90 not happening. Honestly at this point i'd be a little surprised if it got to 88.

Just saw this on FB from Eric Elwell(well respected met in Ohio). He says it was from west WI today and appears to be an upside down funnel.

19/12/5

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
 
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT, WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, WILL BE NOTED  
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
   
..NORTHERN IL  
 
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO EASTERN IA  
BY 18Z, THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT EJECTS INTO SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY  
EVENING. 50KT 500MB SPEED MAX SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MO  
INTO NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND  
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.  
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 60S SURFACE DEW  
POINTS WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS IL INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE  
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN IA  
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, WHILE DOWNSTREAM, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL  
WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE  
SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS A RESULT, MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD  
EXCEED 1500 J/KG WITHIN A SHEARED REGIME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  
LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON NEAR THE IA/NORTHWESTERN IL BORDER THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD  
THE CHICAGO METRO BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES  
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
   
 

17 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Tornado Warning just SSW of Columbus. Nice little embedded sup in a multi-cell cluster. Radar indicated atm.

Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed.

Slight risk for tornadoes just added for SW OH /N KY.

Quote

..OHIO VALLEY  
 
A MOIST PRE-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL  
KENTUCKY INTO OHIO AHEAD OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER  
ILLINOIS. SCATTERED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS ARE ONGOING AT  
MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BREAKS PRECEDE THIS  
ACTIVITY. MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR  
GRADUALLY STRONGER UPDRAFT INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG (GENERALLY EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR 30-40 KT), MODERATELY STRONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS  
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRANSIENT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOWING  
SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD  
OCCUR ASIDE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

End date should likely be changed to the 18th with the eastern sub seeing heavy rain and possible severe tomorrow.

Quote

..OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLIANS  
 
A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD MAKE ONLY SLOW  
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER IL AND VICINITY ON MONDAY. A RELATED SURFACE  
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY OCCLUDING WHILE SHIFTING TOWARDS  
EASTERN KY/TN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND VICINITY.  
MODESTLY ENHANCED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING BOTH  
UPPER LOWS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NC/SC. LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AHEAD OF  
AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
AND MUTED DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT  
INSTABILITY FROM OH INTO EASTERN KY. EVEN SO, THE FORECAST  
COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) AND 25-30 KT  
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT  
ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS  
STORMS FORM INTO SMALL CLUSTERS/BOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A  
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF OH/EASTERN KY WHERE  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER.  
 
SOMEWHAT BETTER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY FORM BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AHEAD OF THE  
SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW. THESE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY  
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC/NC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHILE  
POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS CASTS DOUBT ON GREATER STORM  
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION, WITH HIGHER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES NOT  
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

New day 1 introduces a slight risk for tornadoes for E IL/W IN.

Quote

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION  
 
A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AND  
INTO IL OVERNIGHT, ENHANCING LIFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH 40 KT  
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND COOLING ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING  
FROM CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MS RIVER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT, A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO IL, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON  
BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS. FARTHER NORTH, A WARM FRONT  
WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION ALONG A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO CLEVELAND.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE  
DAY, BOTH IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM  
WESTERN IL INTO MO. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE  
FRONT, AND STORMS SHOULD SOLIDIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
AS STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS, AND A FEW MAY  
PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE  
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS FAVORABLE.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS, LIFT WILL NOT BE AS  
FOCUSED, BUT A MOIST AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE  
SURFACE TROUGH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WEAKLY VEERING  
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE MAINLY OF  
STRONG WIND GUSTS, THOUGH WEAK ROTATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT BENEATH  
25-30 KT 850 MB FLOW.  
 
DAYTIME STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHERN OH AROUND 18Z  
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HERE, SBCAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG,  
WITH WEAKLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A  
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.

Tornado warning NE of Peoria.