snowlover2

That area of storms around Kankakee IL has been persistent. Looks like radar is estimating close to if not over 8" southeast of Kankakee.

Wasn't expecting a possible watch this far south.

Quote

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0940 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN  
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF OHIO.  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 307...  
 
VALID 270240Z - 270415Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WHICH IS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS FROM  
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN, AND CONTINUES TO SAG  
SOUTH. LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS AND/OR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE  
NEEDED.  
 
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND MEASURED SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN  
ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MOST DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN  
ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS  
LINE. HOWEVER, DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND SIGNATURES ALOFT, IT DOES  
NOT APPEAR THE STRONGER (70+ KT) WINDS SAMPLED BY KIWX AT 3-4KFT ARE  
REACHING THE SURFACE BASED ON THE RECENT 52 MPH WIND GUST AT KVPZ  
WHICH WAS AT THE APEX OF THE BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
STRONGEST WIND SIGNATURE BASED ON RADAR. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT  
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE,  
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT  
TO REACH THE SURFACE.  
 
THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND A STRENGTHENING  
LOW-LEVEL JET (NOW >50 KTS PER KIWX VWP BETWEEN 1-2 KM) SHOULD  
SUSTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THEREFORE, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE TIMING OF A  
NEW WATCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IWX CAN LOCALLY EXTEND WATCH 307 IN  
THE SHORT TERM, BUT EVENTUALLY THE LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH SOUTH  
AND EAST OF THE IWX CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A NEW WATCH IF  
SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTS AS EXPECTED.  
 
..BENTLEY/EDWARDS.. 06/27/2020

Yikes!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
927 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

* Until 1015 PM EDT.

* At 927 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Paw Paw,
  moving east at 55 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and
           businesses will have substantial roof and window damage.
           Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kalamazoo...           Portage...             Vicksburg...
  Galesburg...           Mattawan...            Schoolcraft...
  Climax...              Richland...            Comstock Northwest...
  Westwood...            Gull Lake...           Alamo...
  Fulton...              Augusta...             Oshtemo...
  Comstock...            Scotts...              Cooper...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 307  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN INDIANA  
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OHIO  
LAKE ERIE  
LAKE MICHIGAN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM  
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS  
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE EVENING, AS ACTIVITY NOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN  
LAKE MICHIGAN BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT,  
THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED, AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60  
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF BENTON  
HARBOR MI TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT MI. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.

New tornado warning just west of Rockford.

Watch is up.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 305  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
135 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
LAKE MICHIGAN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL  
900 PM CDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON, BEGINNING IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND  
SPREADING EASTWARD. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DISCRETE  
CELLS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO, THOUGH  
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER CLUSTER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH ISOLATED  
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS EARLY, AND  
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH  
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN ANY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70  
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR  
RAPIDS IA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RACINE WI. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.  
 

Marginal for most of the southern sub on new day 2.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0101 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO  
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY  
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF  
SURROUNDING STATES ON SATURDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S. IS  
EXPECTED SATURDAY, AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT  
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LEADS TO A LARGE EXPANSION OF CYCLONIC FLOW  
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, DOWNSTREAM  
RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL  
CANADA, STILL FURTHER EAST, SOME AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IS  
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.  
 
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD  
IN A TRAIN-LIKE MANNER, FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A VERY WEAK/ILL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED  
TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STATES AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE WEST, A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL  
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY,  
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  
   
..EASTERN OHIO TO LONG ISLAND  
 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,  
WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST, WITH RESPECT TO  
DIAGNOSING THE THERMODYNAMIC QUALITY OF THE AIRMASS. STILL, GIVEN  
ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, AND WEAK COLD FRONT  
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS --  
POSSIBLY IN MULTIPLE EPISODES -- WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE EVENING. RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS  
APPARENT, AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN 15%/SLGT RISK FOR WIND ACROSS THIS  
REGION.  
   
..OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS  
 
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MODERATE WESTERLY  
MID-LEVEL FLOW TRAVERSE THIS REGION, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS -- IN THE  
VICINITY OF A WEAK/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE AREA.  
AN AMPLE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION  
TO SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND MARGINAL HAIL, SUPPORTING THE  
INTRODUCTION OF 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.  
   
 

New day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN  
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST  
IOWA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST  
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID MISSOURI VALLEY  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT  
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID  
MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A  
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE TODAY,  
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN  
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL  
FIRST INITIATE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
IT APPEARS THAT A LINEAR MCS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS CONVECTION  
ORGANIZES AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE SCENARIO IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN, THE SETUP SHOULD  
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  
MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE ALONG A  
CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION SHOULD  
MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF DUE EAST, ALONG THE INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES TO NEAR CHICAGO AND THEN  
EASTWARD TO NEAR DETROIT. THE NAM IS FORECASTING A 40 TO 50 KT  
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 21Z. THIS  
FEATURE, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX AT LOWER LEVELS, SHOULD  
ACT AS A REAR INFLOW JET TO THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS WILL HELP  
ANY LINE SEGMENT TO OBTAIN BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AND ENHANCE THE  
WIND POTENTIAL. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF  
THE MCS SHOW VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND VERY  
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE  
FOR WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. SOME UNCERTAINTY  
EXISTS CONCERNING THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH EXTENT OF THE WIND DAMAGE  
THREAT BUT HAVE USED MODEL CONSENSUS TO PLACE AN ENHANCED RISK IN  
THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED  
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THIS SHOULD BE THE LESSER OF THE  
TWO THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINEAR MCS SHOULD REACH  
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO BY EARLY EVENING.  
 
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY, A POCKET OF  
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MID  
MISSOURI VALLEY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH MULTICELLS ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF THE FRONT.  

Enhanced area added on updated day 2.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2020  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG  
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES  
 
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN IL NORTHWESTWARD  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL WI INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AIDED BY ENHANCED  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN APPROACHING  
UPPER TROUGH, WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH THIS FRONT,  
NEAR AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT. THE WARM FRONT OVER THE  
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY AS THIS WEAK LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING MID TO UPPER  
60S DEWPOINTS IN TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (OR POSSIBLY JUST REINVIGORATION OF THE  
EARLY PERIOD STORMS) IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE MORE  
MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR  
ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE LOW, WITH THE APPROACHING  
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.  
 
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS FORCING TO RESULT IN QUICK THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. LINEAR CHARACTER TO THE  
FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO  
AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE. CONSEQUENTLY, A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER  
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY  
LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST WI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN  
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT/BRIEF  
LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADOES. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY  
WITH ANY EARLY, MORE CELLULAR STORMS OR AS A RESULT OF STORM  
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE LINE.  
   
..MID MS/MID MO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
 
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID MS  
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT, BUT ABUNDANT  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S) AND  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS)  
WILL HELP SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  
   
 
   

 
..MOSIER.. 06/25/2020

New day 2 maintains a large slight risk from MI southwest to SE NE/NE KS. They mention that if enough destabilization can occur after morning activity, a more organized bowing type wind threat could evolve requiring an upgrade to wind and categorical risk.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1254 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2020  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED  
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE  
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY, AS  
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A POSITIVELY TILTED,  
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL CROSS THE  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO  
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A MORE  
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MANNER, AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE LINGERING OVER KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A  
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND/ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING  
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  
   
..MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS TO THE GREAT LAKES  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION  
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  
AS DIURNAL HEATING DRIVES AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, NEW STORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, FIRST OVER  
THE WISCONSIN VICINITY AND THEN STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE  
COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS.  
 
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE  
REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS -- LIKELY EVOLVING  
LOCALLY INTO FAST/EASTWARD-MOVING BANDS. ALONG WITH HAIL POTENTIAL,  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY TO BE THE FAVORED SEVERE RISK. DEPENDING  
UPON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AREA IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION, A MORE  
ORGANIZED/BOWING-TYPE WIND RISK COULD EVOLVE, WHICH COULD REQUIRE  
HIGHER WIND PROBABILITY/GREATER CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER FORECASTS.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- SPREADING  
AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK, BUT  
WITH SEVERE RISK LIKELY WANING GRADUALLY AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES  
WITH TIME.  
   

 
..GOSS.. 06/25/2020  

Slight risk added to a good chunk of the northern half of IL.

Quote

..ILLINOIS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO TO WESTERN INDIANA  
 
HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A WIND-RELATED CATEGORICAL  
SLIGHT RISK. DECAYING OUTFLOW AND PREVALENT CLOUD COVER COMPLICATE  
THE SCENARIO SOMEWHAT, BUT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA  
AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 277  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
245 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA  
EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY  
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO  
LAKE ERIE  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM  
UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75  
MPH LIKELY  
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS INDIANA IS EXPECTED  
TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL STORM  
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO OHIO. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE  
SOLID SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM  
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND  
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, SOME SIGNIFICANT. A  
TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60  
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST  
OF TOLEDO OH TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI OH. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.  
 

Kinda surprised it won't be a tornado watch.

4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Day 1 moderate introduced, wind driven

Here's the disco.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER  
MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN REGION. SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL THREAT ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE.  
   
..LOWER MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG UPPER LOW  
OVER NORTHEASTERN KS, SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH  
LATE-EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT  
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED  
AS STRONGEST 500MB FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO  
THE DOWNSTREAM POSITION OVER CENTRAL IL BY 18Z, THEN SOUTHERN LOWER  
MI BY 11/00Z. AT 0530Z, REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE LIFTING QUICKLY  
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IT APPEARS THE WAVELENGTH  
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER  
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS IN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER  
MI BY 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING  
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THERE  
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 18-20Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS  
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, IT APPEARS A MIXED STORM MODE WILL EVOLVE  
WITH SUPERCELLS, SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS, AND CLUSTERS ULTIMATELY  
MATURING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES 12HR  
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 120-150M WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION  
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE AN UPWARD-EVOLVING  
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. MEAN STORM MOTIONS AROUND 45KT ARE  
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE MLCAPE (2000  
J/KG) WILL ENSURE ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED  
WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD SEVERE,  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS. SOME  
TORNADO THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  
 
FARTHER EAST, STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL  
AID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD  
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE STRONGLY FORCED, BUT  
ADEQUATELY SHEARED FOR AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.  
 
..DARROW/NAUSLAR.. 06/10/2020  

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight.

I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio.

58mph winds at Dayton airport.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     KDAY DAYTON COX APT     39.90N 84.22W
06/09/2020  M58 MPH          MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS

ILN sounds really concerned about tornado potential tomorrow even mentioning being alert for strong tornado.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main story Wednesday will be increasingly unstable airmass
meeting up with a negatively tilted shortwave heading up the
ridge axis currently in place over the East Coast. At the
surface, a cold front/dry line will slice through the forecast
area during the late afternoon hours. Timing of this line of
convergence is still a bit uncertain with the guidance. Have
bracketed the time of peak concern to be from 18Z through just
after 00Z, with a quick end to the precipitation behind the main
line along the front.

Based on several emerging mesoscale factors, including SBCAPE
values of 2000-3000 J/kg, 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and
20-30kts of 0-1km bulk shear, there is growing concern for
severe storms with damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes as
well. In fact, STP values exceeding 3 in west central through
central Ohio provide some alert for the potential for strong
tornadoes during the late afternoon through early evening hours.
Main question will be coverage for storms, as well as how long
the storms remain discrete along the front.

T-storm warning just went up for Cincy area along that band.

Enhanced area added for tomorrow for parts of MI/OH

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN  
INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINIA, AND NEW YORK WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
AS REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL -- PROGGED TO BE CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN AT  
THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO, A  
NEGATIVELY-TILTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT  
LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FLANKED BY RIDGES ON EITHER  
SIDE, ONE OVER THE WEST AND A SECOND OVER THE EAST THAT WILL BE  
GRADUALLY SHUNTED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END  
OF THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS A  
SYNOPTIC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH TIME, IN RESPONSE TO THE  
ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGHING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO  
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL  
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN SHOULD CROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
   
..LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO VICINITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST  
 
AS THE REMNANT LOW WHICH WAS CRISTOBAL SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, A COMPACT LOW/VORT MAX -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE  
UPPER TROUGHING -- IS FORECAST TO MAKE AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY  
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM -- AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- ADVANCE ACROSS LAKE  
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO THROUGH THE DAY,  
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FORCING  
FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY  
AFTERNOON. STRONG -- BUT SOMEWHAT  
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS PROGGED  
ACROSS THE REGION, YIELDING SHEAR THAT WILL FAVOR  
FAST-MOVING/ROTATING STORMS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS, AND  
ATTENDANT RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE, AS WILL A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH  
TIME, AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED, AS STORMS  
SHIFT EAST TO LAKES HURON AND ERIE, AND ACROSS OHIO INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS, WITH AN EVENTUAL WANE IN WIND RISK EXPECTED WITH TIME.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON  
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES. WEAKER  
SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS LESSER SEVERE RISK,  
THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH  
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

No 10% on new day 1 and they also trimmed away the slight some in IL.

Quote

 
   
..WESTERN KY/IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD JUST TO  
THE WEST OF SAINT LOUIS, AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD WI/UPPER MI  
OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER, LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS ARE  
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY, AND WILL REACH IL  
THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF 40-50 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND THE  
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT  
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE  
DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE RICHER MOISTURE  
PLUME WHERE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD, WHICH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE  
FORMATION OF MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO SMALL  
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  
   
 

9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

New Day 2 has a slight in Eastern Lower MI, new day 1 expands the slight slightly 

Also a 5% tornado area for SEMI and west OH.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO  
LOWER  
MICHIGAN...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW  
YORK...WEST VIRGINIA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN  
INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINIA, AND NEW YORK WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..LOWER MI, OH AND NORTHERN KY INTO WV, NY AND PA  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MID MS  
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, AND INTO ONTARIO BY  
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LOWER MI  
INTO OH, EASTERN KY AND TN, AND ACROSS AL AT 00Z.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST, CONTRIBUTING  
TO MUCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT  
FALLS WILL ALSO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AIDING  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER LOWER MI, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH  
AS KY. A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WITH SRH  
LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.  
 
DURING THE DAY OVER NORTHERN NY, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE INCREASED SRH IN THIS AREA WILL  
CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO BUT STORM  
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
OTHERWISE, STORMS ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD PERSIST EASTWARD  
ACROSS PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING, BENEATH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, BUT  
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good representation there of the increased lag between Cristobal and the trailing wave.

Not looking like an Ike type scenario as far as winds from tropical remnants, but probably still going to be better than 95% of remnant systems in the Midwest in that regard.

You have to remember with Ike there was the unexpected mostly sunny skies to the south/east of the track which aided in the stronger winds. Would be pretty hard to get another Ike scenario unless that happens.

Updated day 2

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2020  
 
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE MIDWEST AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF  
THE MISSOURI, MID MISSISSPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO  
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER PARTS OF  
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
THE DAY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES  
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
WHILE CRISTOBAL -- INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH TIME, A COLD  
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL NOW DEEPENING  
AS A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
WILL LIKELY HAVE SURGED TO A POSITION FROM THE LOW  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS  
GULF COAST.  
   
..MID MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
 
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED  
TO RESIDE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS/TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EARLY IN  
THE PERIOD, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A VERY  
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST  
QUADRANT OF THE LOW, WILL RESULT IN A LARGE/BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST  
LOW-END WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A DIURNAL UPTICK IN RISK SHOULD OCCUR  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS  
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE IL/IN AREA. WEAK LAPSE RATES,  
BUT VERY MODEST HEATING SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WITH  
HEIGHT WITHIN THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD TO SUPPORT A RELATIVE  
INCREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT LEAST SOME RISK WILL LIKELY LINGER  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
   
 

Slight risk up for IL/IN on new day 2.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1254 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2020  
 
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FROM SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF  
THE MISSOURI, MID MISSISSPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND  
EVENING, WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED WIND  
DAMAGE. HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS,  
WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS  
OVERNIGHT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL, SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL CONTINUE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS MO AND IL DURING THE DAY, ENHANCING LIFT AND  
SHEAR PROFILES, AND BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH.  
MEANWHILE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
BY 00Z, AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WITH RAPID  
HEIGHT FALLS.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE FROM MO  
INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH 00Z, WITH A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY FROM LOWER MI  
INTO SOUTHERN WI. WINDS ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY VEER OVER THE MS VALLEY  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE, THEN BACK AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS THE  
MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES.  
 
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE BEST AREA OF STORM  
POTENTIAL AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR A  
FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY WITH TORNADO THREAT FROM THE MID MS  
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREAS, WITH A DAYTIME THREAT ACROSS NE AND  
KS NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH.  
   
..IL...IN...WESTERN KY...PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES  
 
STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHERN MS AND TN INTO  
KY, IL AND IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING ROTATION. MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST SRH  
(OVER 300 M2/S2) WILL BE OVER WESTERN KY, EASTERN IL, AND MUCH OF IN  
BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO LOWER MI AFTER 00Z  
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STORMS  
SCATTERED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, BEGINNING IN THE MORNING OVER  
NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN, THEN RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTH.  
 
OVERNIGHT, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN, AND MAY SUPPORT  
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
   
 

End of the 0z HRRRv4 shows numerous cells in east IN and a line forming in east MO.