snowlover2
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Posts posted by snowlover2
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Far northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A long-lived bowing MCS, that appears to have peaked in terms of intensity and amplitude of significant severe wind gusts, will likely produce scattered damaging winds and isolated significant severe gusts as it spreads into Lower Michigan and Indiana this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Muskegon MI to 20 miles south southwest of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426...WW 427...WW 428... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27050. ...Grams
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Boone County in north central Illinois... * Until 345 PM CDT. * At 255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Loves Park, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Candlewick Lake and Timberlane around 305 PM CDT. Poplar Grove around 310 PM CDT. Capron around 320 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Caledonia. -
Only change from SPC on 20z outlook was to trim the west side of the risk areas where storms have already passed.
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Watch coming for SW MI/IN.
QuoteMesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower MI into northern/central IN and far northwestern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101928Z - 102100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A substantial severe wind threat will likely increase this afternoon across parts of southern Lower Michigan and into northern/central Indiana with a line of storms moving quickly eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...A bow echo will continue moving rapidly eastward across northern IL and far southern WI this afternoon while producing widespread damaging winds of 70-100 mph. The airmass across southern Lower MI and northern/central IN continues to destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures having warmed into the mid to upper 80s, and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Steeper mid-level lapse rates observed on the 18Z ILX sounding have likely spread over at least the western portions of southwestern MI and western IN. Resultant MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg and around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support the maintenance of the severe bow echo as it moved eastward across these areas this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, some 75+ mph, will likely produce numerous to widespread damaging winds, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with circulations embedded within the line. This substantial severe wind risk is expected to increase within the next couple of hours, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued to address this threat. ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/10/2020
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New tornado warning in south WI.
QuoteBULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 226 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Green County in south central Wisconsin... Western Rock County in south central Wisconsin... * Until 315 PM CDT. * At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Monroe, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Janesville, Beloit, Brodhead, Orfordville, Footville, Newark, Magnolia, Hanover, Leyden, Afton, Juda and Avon. -
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Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL...including the Chicago metro Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 101836Z - 102030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for widespread and destructive damaging wind gusts of 70-100+ mph and perhaps a tornado or two will continue as a line of storms moves quickly eastward across northern Illinois. This line will likely impact the Chicago metro area around 2000-2030Z (3 to 3:30 PM CDT). DISCUSSION...The bow echo over eastern IA has developed a comma head structure on its northern flank and very large rear-inflow jet, with measured wind gusts of 97 and 112 mph recently reported in the vicinity of Cedar Rapids IA. The 17Z sounding from DVN observed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. These lapse rates combined with strong heating of a very moist low-level airmass is supporting 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE downstream of the bow. The 25 kt of effective bulk shear also observed on the 17Z sounding is somewhat marginal for storm organization. Regardless, with the bow echo already very well developed/organized, confidence remains high that a swath of widespread, destructive damaging winds of 70-100+ mph will sweep eastward across northern IL and vicinity over the next hour or two. If the current fast eastward motion of the bow (around 60 kt) holds steady, then the widespread damaging wind threat will increase across the Chicago metro area by 2000-2030Z (3 to 3:30 PM CDT). In addition to the substantial straight-line wind threat, some increase in the tornado threat may be developing on the northern flank of the bow, where mid-level rotation has recently been noted. Other cells have also formed ahead of the line across far southern WI and northern IL along a weak warm front, and this convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2020
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Couple of tornado warnings in SW WI on the north side of the bow.
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Probabilities for the watch.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (90%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:
Ohio governor tested positive but is currently asymptomatic
https://www.whio.com/news/local/gov-dewine-tests-positive-coronavirus/TSZIR6U735GZBGCORZ3TQ2SH6Y/
Second test he took this afternoon came back negative.
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Looks like parts of IN/OH could see heavy rain to start the month.
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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:
Statewide masking order goes into effect in Indiana on Monday for people over 8 years old. I am not sure where that particular number is coming from. I know there is some data out there to suggest that kids over age 10 and especially over age 15 are better at spreading the virus than younger kids.
Ohio goes under a statewide order at 6pm today for 10 year olds and older. Obvious exceptions for medical conditions and eating and drinking.
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Confirmed tornado over Eau Claire WI.
QuoteSevere Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 843 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 WIC017-035-220200- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200722T0200Z/ Chippewa WI-Eau Claire WI- 843 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES... At 843 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Eau Claire, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Lake Wissota around 850 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Bateman, Eau Claire Airport and Seymour. -
New tornado warning east of the other one.
QuoteBULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 418 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Christian County in central Illinois... Southeastern Sangamon County in central Illinois... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 418 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over White Oak, or 12 miles east of Virden, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * These dangerous storms will be near... Kincaid, Edinburg, Bulpitt and Jeisyville around 430 PM CDT. Taylorville around 435 PM CDT. Stonington around 445 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Sangchris Lake State Park, Sicily, Willeys, Roby, Sharpsburg, Berry, Owaneco, Tovey, Taylorville Airport and Glenarm. This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 84 and 89. -
Tornado warning just south of Springfield IL.
QuoteBULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 403 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 403 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Auburn, or near Virden, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Divernon around 410 PM CDT. Springfield and Pawnee around 415 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Glenarm, Thayer and Lowder. This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 90. -
Tornado warning west of Kokomo IN.
QuoteSevere Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 215 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 INC015-023-157-211845- /O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200721T1845Z/ Carroll IN-Tippecanoe IN-Clinton IN- 215 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...EAST CENTRAL TIPPECANOE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES... At 215 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Lafayette, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Mulberry around 220 PM EDT. Rossville around 230 PM EDT. This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 166 and 172. -
They expanded the slight risk for tomorrow to now include se MI, most of Ohio and most of central IN.
Quote...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region... A shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Sunday accompanied by a cold front. By 12Z Sunday the front should extend from a surface low in Ontario, southwest through the upper Great Lakes and central Plains. This boundary will move east and southeast during the day, likely extending from the lower Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. A moist boundary layer with upper 60s to around 70 F dewpoints will reside in the pre-frontal warm sector, contributing to moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, mainly across portions of MI. It is possible some of this activity might pose an ongoing threat for a few strong wind gusts, but it will most likely weaken during the morning. Additional storms are expected to develop along the cold front and residual outflow boundary across the OH Valley region. This area will reside south of stronger winds aloft with weak vertical shear expected. However, the thermodynamic environment may be sufficient for a threat of isolated locally strong wind gusts with multicell lines and clusters during the afternoon.
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Got the very rare PDS T-storm watch for a good chunk of MN.
QuoteURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 535 PM until 100 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...An intense linear-type complex of storms is expected to evolve into a derecho this evening and produce widespread/significant damaging winds as it accelerates east-southeastward across the region. Isolated large hail is also possible, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out, particularly near the warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles north of Mobridge SD to 45 miles east of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
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No real change on the updated day 2 but they do mention that an enhanced area will likely be needed.
QuoteDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms should occur Saturday across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the main hazards with these storms, some of which could be significant. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Upper Midwest through Great Lakes areas... An MCS will likely be ongoing over a portion of the Great Lakes region, most likely from upper MI into WI, with trailing outflow boundary extending farther southwest into southern MN. Meanwhile, farther upstream, a progressive shortwave trough will reside over the northern Plains with accompanying cold front likely extending from eastern ND southwestward through western SD. This front will continue east and likely extend from northern MN through eastern SD, central NE into northeast CO by early afternoon. The atmosphere in vicinity of and south of the outflow boundary and east of the cold front will likely once again become very unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by rich low-level moisture and steep lapse rates. Initial thunderstorms will most likely develop near intersection of the cold front and remnant outflow boundary from southeast SD into southwest MN. This region will reside within belt of stronger mid-level winds supporting 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. Discrete supercells will be likely with a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes possible as well. Eventually storms should evolve into an organized MCS with an increasing threat for damaging wind, some of which could be significant. Considerable uncertainty still exists regarding where tonight's MCS and outflow boundary will have the most impact on Saturday's pre-storm environment. Will therefore leave as SLGT risk for now. However, an upgrade to enhanced will probably be needed for a portion of this region in upcoming day 1 outlooks. ..Dial.. 07/17/2020
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SPC has expanded the moderate risk area into northwest WI and the enhanced across the rest of north WI into the UP of MI. They even say in the disco that a derecho appears possible.
QuoteDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A significant severe weather event is possible this evening and tonight over parts of North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin. Widespread damaging winds are possible. ...ND to WI/Upper MI... Morning water vapor loop shows fast westerly flow across the northern tier of states, with an embedded low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern MT. Southerly low-level winds are present across the Dakotas, with local VADs showing 20-30 knots at 1-2km. These winds are helping to transport 70s surface dewpoints northward, yielding an axis of MLCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg later today from central ND into western MN. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this afternoon as forcing overspreads the returning moisture, with a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado over western/central ND. All guidance lends confidence that these storms will congeal into one or more bowing structures by this evening over eastern ND. Storms will track rapidly eastward at 40-50 knots across parts of MN and into northern WI and upper MI overnight. Given the very favorable thermodynamic profiles in place, the strong westerly flow aloft, and the consistent model guidance, it appears possible that a derecho will occur this evening and tonight from ND to WI - with the threat of a corridor of widespread and significant damaging winds. Have expanded the MDT/ENH risks eastward into parts of WI/Upper MI where the bowing complex appears most likely to track late tonight. Have also expanded the ENH southward into more of central MN due to uncertainty of how far south the MCS might develop.
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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
12z Euro was ridiculously hot south of I-80. It actually has maxes near/over 110F for a few days in eastern MO.
Color me skeptical about that magnitude of heat. There were a few isolated spots in the Ohio Valley that hit 110F back in 2012, but you need pretty extraordinary dry conditions to pull that off.
It actually is backing off the extreme heat especially the farther east you go. It's been showing temps around 100 for all of Ohio but the 12z is now showing low/mid 90's for most except far northeast with temps in the upper 70's/low 80's. Wouldn't surprise me too much to see it back off a bit more.
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Pretty big change in the 0z runs (GFS, GGEM) starting next weekend as far as heat goes. To this point they were showing the heat lasting to the 19th-20th area. Now both are showing the center of the ridge over the rockies instead of the plains with a trough over the lakes/ov. Now only showing highs in the 60's and 70's. This would be much welcomed relief.
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92 in Dayton today. 4 days in a row of 90+ and counting. No clue what the longest streak of 90+ days is.
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8 year Anniversary of the 2012 Derecho is today. One of those events you never forget.
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That area of storms around Kankakee IL has been persistent. Looks like radar is estimating close to if not over 8" southeast of Kankakee.
August 10 Severe Weather
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Tornado warning north side of Chicago.