snowlover2

0z GFS

0z NAM and 3K NAM

0z NAM for part 1.

WAA up for parts of west central IL through tomorrow morning.

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some serious bombogenesis on the 18z GFS.

That wouldn't be a terrible track a couple months from now.

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Interesting CIPS... there are a few big fall outbreaks in there, a couple smaller ones and quite a few that produced no severe wx in the region.  Take your pick lol.  

I'd probably lean away from the bigger ones toward one of the smaller ones at this point given the concern about instability/mid level lapse rates.  Usually it's sort of hard to reverse the mid level lapse rate problem on the models once it's there.  Maybe pure advection can drive the temps up above guidance and help out the instability a bit.

SPC talking about it some in the day 4-8.

Quote

..D5/FRIDAY: OH AND MS VALLEYS  
 
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. A STRONG  
CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS A RESULT WITH SEVERE  
STORMS POSSIBLE FROM IL/IN INTO LA/MS. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE EXTENT OF THE  
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER ASCENT AND BETTER  
DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH (I.E. FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH  
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST) OF THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
(ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS). AREA OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THE FAVORABLE  
DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS DIFFER AMONGST THE GUIDANCE  
AND MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IS NEEDED BEFORE DELINEATING ANY AREAS.

Well sure feels like fall now. Has to be about 25-30 degrees cooler now than this time yesterday. Only 58 right now.

Dayton hit 94 breaking the monthly record of 93.

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% introduced across central IA later. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE available, along with half decent turning in the low levels. Just hinges on discrete/semi discrete activity. 

They did add a 5% tornado area but from NE KS to SW/South Central IA.

Enhanced added to the IA/IL/MO border area for hail although a 5% tornado area added also.

Quote

..KS TO LOWER MI  
 
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION  
REGIME ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN IL. ROBUST  
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING  
ACTIVITY BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO  
ADVECT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS, A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH  
MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A  
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN KS TO THE IA/IL/MO  
BORDER AREA.  
 
DESPITE NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCY, GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY  
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPING  
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE IA/IL BORDER  
AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BULK OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
MAY BE ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER FROM CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHERN  
WI, SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
THE FRONT AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE  
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN IL TO THE DRYLINE  
INTERSECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE  
SHOULD RESIDE NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER REGION WITH MORE SCATTERED  
COVERAGE BACK INTO EASTERN KS.  
 
LOW TO DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL  
SUPERCELLS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE  
INTO MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL  
WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD WITH SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS  
EXPECTED AS WELL. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND AN ENLARGED  
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, CERTAINLY A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY  
SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE AND RELATED  
CAMS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHER-END TORNADO COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WITH  
CYCLOLYSIS EXPECTED, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD BE A  
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW  
TORNADOES, WILL DOUBLE-UPGRADE FROM LESS THAN 2 PERCENT TO A 5  
PERCENT AREA WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

41 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 

WxBell's map actually looks quite a bit like the Dec '04 event, and/or winter of 1917-18. I'd give you both credit. Also, iirc, 2-14-07 was pretty big across OH? 

Northern parts yes. Also almost forgot March 7,8  2008. Most of the northwestern half of OH were under a blizzard warning receiving 10"+.

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Ohio(mainly the western/northwestern portion gets the bulk of the storms since 1864) is really due for a major bomb. The last real one was 1993 on the eastern edge of the state. Before that you had 1978, 1965, 1950, 1918, 1913, 1894, 1864.

Actually 2004 pre Christmas dropped 20"+ across the western half of the state so arguably that was the last real big one.

New day 1.

A few counties in NW IN just added to current watch. That seems pretty telling that it's not going as far south as expected.

The new day 3 disco is short but with strong wording calling for a MCS with possible destructive winds because of extreme instability and also saying upgrades being likely in later outlooks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

1630z SPC OTLK ramped up TOR probs significantly in W IL and extreme SE IA... 5% at 1300 to 10% hatched on 1630z... hatched wind added to 30% on 1630z OTLK as well

And the disco mentions an upgrade to moderate risk might be needed later.

An enhanced area has been added to central IL for tomorrow on new day 2.

Warning just west of me with a 61mph winds reported at the Dayton Airport.

17 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further

You are correct. It was a tornado watch from MO/AR to KY/TN. There were 2 PDS severe thunderstorm watches to the west of that earlier that morning.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2009/ww0267.html

Also mentioned possibly a derecho.                     

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN
   AND NORTHERN WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes
   and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from
   central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon
   to evening.

   ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
   Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of
   multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and
   evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast
   to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal
   flow regime across the northern states.

   A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by
   warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic
   zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier
   this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late
   morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by
   the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a
   strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day
   cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust
   boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an
   increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind
   gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging
   wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by
   guidance.

   The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass
   (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD
   through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads
   surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface
   cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through
   early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this
   cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm
   development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation
   occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant
   threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60
   kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist
   thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold
   pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating
   MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI.
   Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense
   bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant
   severe wind gusts

Moderate risk now for parts of MN/WI with a 15% tornado area.

12 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Speaks for itself.

Still the one from yesterday. Seems odd they didn't update it today.

Latest from CPC has a high excessive heat area now for the mid MS Valley area.

On 7/9/2019 at 7:42 PM, CoachLB said:

Westward expansion of the extreme heat areas on todays outlook.

2 hours ago, CoachLB said:

GFS/Euro both showing DP's getting into the 80's across a decent chunk of the sub which would certainly help verify this.