snowlover2

Wasn't expecting a possible watch this far south.

Yikes! BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 927 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 927 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Paw Paw, moving east at 55 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Kalamazoo... Portage... Vicksburg... Galesburg... Mattawan... Schoolcraft... Climax... Richland... Comstock Northwest... Westwood... Gull Lake... Alamo... Fulton... Augusta... Oshtemo... Comstock... Scotts... Cooper... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage.

New tornado warning just west of Rockford.

Watch is up.

Marginal for most of the southern sub on new day 2.

New day 1.

Enhanced area added on updated day 2.

New day 2 maintains a large slight risk from MI southwest to SE NE/NE KS. They mention that if enough destabilization can occur after morning activity, a more organized bowing type wind threat could evolve requiring an upgrade to wind and categorical risk.

Slight risk added to a good chunk of the northern half of IL.

Kinda surprised it won't be a tornado watch.

Here's the disco.

I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio.

58mph winds at Dayton airport. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 453 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0443 PM TSTM WND GST KDAY DAYTON COX APT 39.90N 84.22W 06/09/2020 M58 MPH MONTGOMERY OH ASOS

ILN sounds really concerned about tornado potential tomorrow even mentioning being alert for strong tornado. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main story Wednesday will be increasingly unstable airmass meeting up with a negatively tilted shortwave heading up the ridge axis currently in place over the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front/dry line will slice through the forecast area during the late afternoon hours. Timing of this line of convergence is still a bit uncertain with the guidance. Have bracketed the time of peak concern to be from 18Z through just after 00Z, with a quick end to the precipitation behind the main line along the front. Based on several emerging mesoscale factors, including SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and 20-30kts of 0-1km bulk shear, there is growing concern for severe storms with damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes as well. In fact, STP values exceeding 3 in west central through central Ohio provide some alert for the potential for strong tornadoes during the late afternoon through early evening hours. Main question will be coverage for storms, as well as how long the storms remain discrete along the front.

T-storm warning just went up for Cincy area along that band.

Enhanced area added for tomorrow for parts of MI/OH

No 10% on new day 1 and they also trimmed away the slight some in IL.

Also a 5% tornado area for SEMI and west OH.

You have to remember with Ike there was the unexpected mostly sunny skies to the south/east of the track which aided in the stronger winds. Would be pretty hard to get another Ike scenario unless that happens.

Updated day 2

Slight risk up for IL/IN on new day 2.

End of the 0z HRRRv4 shows numerous cells in east IN and a line forming in east MO.

It was September 2008.