snowlover2

Tornado warning north side of Chicago.

Only change from SPC on 20z outlook was to trim the west side of the risk areas where storms have already passed.

Watch coming for SW MI/IN.

New tornado warning in south WI.

Couple of tornado warnings in SW WI on the north side of the bow.

Probabilities for the watch. Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (90%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

Second test he took this afternoon came back negative.

Looks like parts of IN/OH could see heavy rain to start the month.

Ohio goes under a statewide order at 6pm today for 10 year olds and older. Obvious exceptions for medical conditions and eating and drinking.

Confirmed tornado over Eau Claire WI.

New tornado warning east of the other one.

Tornado warning just south of Springfield IL.

Tornado warning west of Kokomo IN.

They expanded the slight risk for tomorrow to now include se MI, most of Ohio and most of central IN.

Got the very rare PDS T-storm watch for a good chunk of MN.

No real change on the updated day 2 but they do mention that an enhanced area will likely be needed.

SPC has expanded the moderate risk area into northwest WI and the enhanced across the rest of north WI into the UP of MI. They even say in the disco that a derecho appears possible.

It actually is backing off the extreme heat especially the farther east you go. It's been showing temps around 100 for all of Ohio but the 12z is now showing low/mid 90's for most except far northeast with temps in the upper 70's/low 80's. Wouldn't surprise me too much to see it back off a bit more.

Pretty big change in the 0z runs (GFS, GGEM) starting next weekend as far as heat goes. To this point they were showing the heat lasting to the 19th-20th area. Now both are showing the center of the ridge over the rockies instead of the plains with a trough over the lakes/ov. Now only showing highs in the 60's and 70's. This would be much welcomed relief.

92 in Dayton today. 4 days in a row of 90+ and counting. No clue what the longest streak of 90+ days is.

8 year Anniversary of the 2012 Derecho is today. One of those events you never forget.

That area of storms around Kankakee IL has been persistent. Looks like radar is estimating close to if not over 8" southeast of Kankakee.