snowlover2

ILN sounds really concerned about tornado potential tomorrow even mentioning being alert for strong tornado. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main story Wednesday will be increasingly unstable airmass meeting up with a negatively tilted shortwave heading up the ridge axis currently in place over the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front/dry line will slice through the forecast area during the late afternoon hours. Timing of this line of convergence is still a bit uncertain with the guidance. Have bracketed the time of peak concern to be from 18Z through just after 00Z, with a quick end to the precipitation behind the main line along the front. Based on several emerging mesoscale factors, including SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and 20-30kts of 0-1km bulk shear, there is growing concern for severe storms with damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes as well. In fact, STP values exceeding 3 in west central through central Ohio provide some alert for the potential for strong tornadoes during the late afternoon through early evening hours. Main question will be coverage for storms, as well as how long the storms remain discrete along the front.

T-storm warning just went up for Cincy area along that band.

Enhanced area added for tomorrow for parts of MI/OH

No 10% on new day 1 and they also trimmed away the slight some in IL.

Also a 5% tornado area for SEMI and west OH.

You have to remember with Ike there was the unexpected mostly sunny skies to the south/east of the track which aided in the stronger winds. Would be pretty hard to get another Ike scenario unless that happens.

Updated day 2

Slight risk up for IL/IN on new day 2.

End of the 0z HRRRv4 shows numerous cells in east IN and a line forming in east MO.

It was September 2008.

Nice looking band going through IN/OH/MI.

Looks like 12z Euro just misses a phase. Cristobal just a little too quick.

Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that.

Updated day 2 remains the same but there is a mention of possible increase in probs being needed for lower lakes area.

Enhanced area also expanded into west MI.

New day 2

Eastward shift of the enhanced area on new day 1.

Updated day 2 sees the enhanced area expanded more into central WI and a touch south into northern IA.

Day 3 has a slight risk over a large part of the southern sub.

An enhanced area has been added to southern MN and parts of west WI on the new day 2. Severe storms could be possible again on Wednesday farther south across IL/IN/OH.

One year ago at this time we heard the words for the first time ever from ILN, this is a TORNADO EMERGENCY for Montgomery County!!!

Tornado watch up across central IA.

It's weird for me because on my laptop I can initially go to the site and go to GFS but when I go to change to another model or setting I get a message saying can't reach the page. If I go on my phone and go to the site there is no problems.

Can't believe it's been a year already. Don't think I've ever had such a quick change of emotions like that night. Went from not worrying much to getting a little nervous as tornado warnings got closer to very nervous as the tornado really wound up near Trotwood to scared shitless as I hear this is a Tornado Emergency! First time I feared for my life from a tornado since I knew it would be very close. Luckily for me it stayed just a half mile north of me. Started to breath again only to see another confirmed tornado near Vandalia headed SE toward me. Really long night and one i'll never forget.

It is when you have cloud cover and pop up storms in the area. In fact it dropped to 83 and light rain which means game over as far as 90 goes.