LP08

Just adding this to the "signal party". That's DCA, the means look better the further west you go.

Euro has some northern md snow at day 6.

Look at the height lines....it’s a shredder north of us and has no room to amplify. 18z and 0z below.

Suppressed south...no precip north of Ric ...interesting

2-4” on the icon...nice start to 0z

Icon a hit at 168

Depends on where the biscuit is from, IMO

@psuhoffman Great post. Have a question though. I was digging through some of my older posts and have noticed a similarity with extended NAO looks. Below is 300+ hr forecast for the EPS gor Jan 13 showing a very nice west based block and fast forward to today and it is more centered as an east based NAO. It’s been the pattern it seems all winter. I’m curious to what too look for to make sure we get the retro west that has been seen in the past but failed so far through January.

Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS.

Saw some bagi-ness off the coast but def not until NJ...poorly worded on my part.

Primary into Illinois with a transfer of some sort to off the mid Atlantic...woo blocking

The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west. Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

Not that it matters much. Just happy to see a colder solution.

Maybe....a hit? It’s a full day and a half later than the euro but the GFS is close to getting it done.

Nice trend on the 18z gfs for the “Euro Storm”.

Let's see how people handle expectations for day 8 euro storm. I have high hopes! lol

It's getting tedious waiting for any colder air to arrive. Looks like after that storm there is some dropping behind it into the Midwest, but again that's another 10 day wait to see if its actually true. I'm still optimistic but we need to see it get under 10 days before we believe any colder air is truly coming. Wait and See!

I agree with this but those two chances in Jan were noticed through the ensembles as periods of interest and imo we were unlucky with the NS sws being perfectly timed to crush everything coming north. The one where it snowed in SW VA was because of the block and that little sucker pinwheeled down at the absolute wrong time, it happens. I think we have been in a favorable period and have been completely unlucky to not see anything. Definitely not a Hecs pattern but at least some winter could have happened during these two weeks of Jan.

LOL...that's quite the block.

GFS is back for the 18th. Mostly light stuff. Some marginally better snow down towards Richmond.

Get a nice cold light storm before the super blocked swfe monster cold air penetrating right through the region.

It’s getting funny at this point.

Icon has the 18th storm....It’s light but it’s snow.

They should probably try and cover Smith and probably not with a linebacker.