LP08

Considerably slower than the globals. Ok enough Nam talk.

Nam long range so all caveats yada yada, but at 75 the NS SW looks elongated and "over the top" rather than diving into the Trough. H5 way south compared to other models.

Subtle changes but two things I see to watch today. Using the Nam cause its running. Ocean storm intensity (notice the change in strength from 6z to 12z and as it pushes northeast). Pushing the PV lobe west some, causing heights to drop in the east. This allows our storm to gain longitude as it moves. Second piece not in range but talked about a bunch. NS SW that eventually phases with our storm. Delay it and the storm gets further east before turning north (delays the trough turning negative). Speed it up and congrats Pittsburgh.

Trough went negative sooner than 18z.

For fun, delay that NS capture by a few hours and..

H5 was on va/Nc border, now on Nc/sc border.

Just west of OBX at 99. Nice shift south and east.

Savannah GA at 90

We are going to have a 100 page storm thread before the NAM gets precip to us….who said long tracks are no fun.

Temps in the Mid to upper 20's at onset.

114, Mix line pushing west of 95. LP over Richmond. NW VA crushed.

Mod snow by 108 into DC, still heavy snow throughout VA.

Don't like the EURO at 96. Slower H5, will be west of 0z.

Best part about this storm is it snows during the day/evening and we can just go to bed when it flips.

96. NS a little slower to dive in and main h5 a little quicker. Mostly just noise but any little bit helps.

Looks a little flatter out front through 90. Perhaps stopping the west trend a bit..

I melted in 2009-2010 because it was the first and only winter I didn’t live here….

Just playing around before 12z but toggling between the 6z ICON and 6z GFS, the ICON actually has a stronger vort than the GFS, GFS just drags too slowly as it marches east. The NS SW that dives in and phases is basically the same on both but the ICON has our main vort over NE Georgia at 102 where the GFS has it over western Arkansas.

Maximize the WAA and hope for dryslot. Euro is a very substantial storm even for the cities. Yes it won’t be a clean storm for the fall line and east but as it stands now, still a WSW criteria storm. Not sure why the gloom.

Not to muddy to storm thread but, this map kind of checks all the boxes…-AO, -nao, +pna, 50/50. still learning but what am I missing that allows it to drive to Harrisburg without popping a secondary? Is it because the 50/50 basically evaporates?

Had potential, the High just gets booted out of the way.

Through 90 were some improvements but H5 keeps slowing down each run and allows the confluence to lift out.

LP in TN, trough more positively titled. Can it wait to turn the corner?