weatherwiz

I am not overly impressed with thunder chances with this one...although an opportunity may exist across SE MA where it looks like there will be a spike in theta-e. Even with the dynamics/forcing present, it doesn't appear elevated instability is really enough to spark thunder chances...might have just enough to yield some convective elements which would help with some localized bursts of stronger gusts but I would like it more if we could poke a couple hundred J of elevated CAPE

Let's see what happens overnight/first thing in the AM. Supposedly some convection from the SE will be breaking off and coming up the coast and then boom.

The 12z euro also looks like its slightly stronger with wind gusts across the Cape and Islands lol

What I was doing was trying to follow the main pieces of vort energy along with SLP maps. From doing this that's how I derived what I mentioned above. You do have that main primary low over NYS which then seems to weaken ("transfer energy" to the coast)...which may be a product of occlusion. Speaking of transferring of energy to the coast I forgot what class it was but we discussed this briefly one day and the professor showed us some paper or something...anyways basically discussed how the concept of energy transfer (from low to the next across the east coast) is not actually correct. But if you sort of track that sfc low (which I highlighted as frontal wave or whatever) it seems to develop (defining this when a closed contour appears) right along the cold front. Obviously this is nothing new with fronts and I'm sure this gets enhanced by the anomalous upper-trough, but I think the entire system gets injected with steroids with what it does with this s/w energy that rides up the coast...seems like that stuff goes crazy when it interacts with the negative tilt and the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. This is too complex lol

Perhaps this is incorrect, but this is what it appears with regards to the "dual lows" at the surface. The wave which comes inland looks like the main wave which develops along the cold front. The secondary low looks to be the one which forms from the modeled SE convection. This low then completely blows up due to 1) phasing with the vigorous s/w energy with the trough and looks like enhancement from the jet max surrounding the base of the upper trough. This outcome then completely covers the solution with puke. It looks like the LLJ with the frontal wave is nothing out of the ordinary...but with what happens b/c of that other low and the significant strengthening which occurs you get a response in the LLJ to go wild...forgetting even the wind potential this then increase theta-e advection, moisture transport, and PWAT values into the region...add extra lift and extra moisture and the response is bonkers QPF. Naturally, as a low develops and strengthens along the front, you'll get a LLJ increase, however, the big question here is what is the driving point behind the strengthening of the frontal wave? Going to rule out dynamics here based on the structure of the ULJ and MLJ...so the next explanation would be a tightening thermal gradient...but is it possible this is being enhanced b/c of that secondary low?

GFS brushes the Cape and islands with a 50-60 kt 925 jet. By the time this really gets going it's legit already east of SNE. The Cape will likely see some decent wind gusts, but this is also going to be short duration wind episode...unless you want to count having the strong WNW/NW gusts Thursday as well. The rainfall rates will be the most impressive aspect of this event really...thankfully this is the fast mover it is, but the rain rates under the strongest lift are going to be pretty ridiculous. Someone could pop an inch in like 20-minutes lol

This is 6-HR accumulations (6z-12z). BS flags all over the place. Also fronto map (9z).

If only. NAM NEST (which I think kinda blows) shows like 45-55 knot gusts Cape/Islands...seems reasonable.

6z GFS Bufkit Thursday AM at BOS...not bad

I was at school for that...I remember it being a much more potent event then originally thought. I don't totally remember the set-up for that though...are there any similarities to this setup? (I'm not sure if NARR goes to 2017 yet). That event too also had bombogenesis occur right? Was there energy already in place during that phasing? Or was generated in a way like what is modeled to for today?

I'm always highly intrigued by your gravity waves posts. Eventually I'll get around to studying them more but most of what I know about them is from you. Those are something that is certainly in the back of my mind with this event.

ughhh COD has been having some major issues the past few months with model runs...especially 6z. Hopefully they will be able to resolve these issues at some point.

I don't think we're in the game for that. The Cape and Islands get the good winds here. This just isn't a good wind setup for us. I would suspect 35-45 mph gusts Thursday...NAM is a bit stronger with this potential but NW winds around the backside of systems is typically good for us.

I thought the post you made last night was a pretty solid layout for what to expect.

Bingo...this is pretty much the key between anomalous (that trough digging in is already going to be pretty anomalous...in terms of strength) and super-anomalous. The NAM goes wild with some convective blob across GA lol.

Very real. I love trying to sniff these out several days out.

SST's are going to be > sfc temps Also SST's are what in Long Island...lower 60's? That's not exactly "warm". We're dealing with a stable airmass here...if we got into the warm sector it would be a different story. If you want wind just wait to Thursday...we'll get our wind then

Quick go through of some point-and-click soundings across the interior have an inversion...doesn't look overly strong, but as we've seen in the past even a very weak inversion will limit winds. GFS bufkit is actually sustained like pretty much tropical storm force across at CHH. We'll have to see much much rain does fall (thankfully this is a quick mover) but there could be tree damage/power outages Thursday...still looks like some decent winds on the backside.

The trof also has rotation potential

I think there will be a real good slug of precip but not sure how widespread it will be. I do think this thing could lose its juice quick and things shut down...you can kinda see all models show that. This is kinda hard to totally decipher though I think. I’m still highly skeptical of the whole phasing thing and exactly what happens when that phasing takes place. I know we’re inside a favorable window and the support seems to be there, but phasing is a very fickle thing. I forgot who it was who mentioned this, but they mentioned about not having some sort of low in the southeast already. The ideas of these s/w is stemming on the idea of convection forming in the southeast tomorrow...and the NAM goes s/w happy and then goes bonkers with one of the pieces

I think it’s b/c in how the storm strengthens. It strengthens rapidly as its passing to the east of SNE. Plus I also think this is moving very progressive and that’s going to cut down totals

I even think the H5 height anomaly charts in this case are a bit overblown. The trough is certainly potent and of course will be associated with extremely below-average heights, but they’re being enhanced by this “phasing” of this s/w energy was seems convectively-feedback induced. So of course models are going wild with SLP deepening.

whoops...thought I had the GFS up...it's the NAM which does so. GFS isn't as strong...gusts 35-40 mph.

GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too

euro dumps like 3-5'' across western/central MA down into western/central CT