weatherwiz

Correct me if I am wrong here but this was/is my thinking regarding the change. 1) When looking at the hard numbers or the forecast chart (such as below) you see a big drop coming...not only big but rather quickly But when I see "change" I look at it two ways... 1) What is causing the change? 2) Is the structure of the "big picture" changing? In assessing these two questions, what I gather is 1) There is some transient ridging which evolves and traverses the southern portion of the AO domain which leads to the big drop in AO which is further enhanced by the rather positive anomalies associated with the heights. 2) The big picture is not changing which is why it is still not a good pattern. The structure of the AO and Arctic domain remains...the TPV still remains quite strong, however, the most negative height anomalies just push a bit towards the opposite side of the pole (hence the "drop in AO"). Look what happens after this drop...the AO spikes right back up as that transient ridging either weakens or pushes east of the AO domain. I would even bet that when this drop peaks it ends up being slightly higher than forecast.

Are we still holding out hope that these D10+ pattern changes are going to verify?

I am just going with a friend...we are not doing a tour company. I know that could be a little risky as neither of have have done chasing out in the Plains and it's completely different than here in the Northeast, however, we're not looking to get up front and close to any tornadoes should we see any. We'll likely be tracking from a rather far distance. At worst (depending on storm mode and hazards) we would maybe try to get into some really good hail and winds.

Drove to the Wolf Pack game with windows down on the highway...felt amazing.

These last two pages are gold

but the EML with a strong cold front is more likely to occur than a blizzard in Atlanta betcha I can find more severe reports around your area on June 5th historically than there have been snow reports

Man people have a tough time letting go It will be June 5th and we'll have an EML in place with a strong cold front moving through and people are going to hope the sfc low jumps southeast and somehow that will produce snow

I miss 40's of Steel Reserve Haven't had one since December 12, 2018. I retired from them as soon as I finished school.

How's the moon/tides looking?

yeah definitely depending on what the reference location is...although I thought BOS was a bit higher. But Ray wasn't flat out wrong in that saying that...plus I'm pretty sure Ray was going by general metro area

It's pretty dang close to double. Boston is well up in the 40's to probably around 50. NYC is somewhere in the mid 20's

I remember too a while back reading some research into how there seems to be a pretty decent link between how these Pacific teleconnectors evolve and Atlantic teleconnectors, however, there were some major questions/lack of understanding...some believed if that understanding could be solved we could long-range forecast with great accuracy. There is also this one index...I think it's the Pacific-Transition (PT)...it's like a fall signal with data only available between Sept - Nov or maybe Sept - Dec...but some research showed a very high correlation to the fall phase of this index and winter pattern over the CONUS.

That's a part of the glob where I would really like to focus on more weather wise. I think having a strong understanding/background on how short-term weather is performing across this area of the globe (this includes how the jet is behaving) can significantly increase medium (maybe even into the long-term spectrum...depending on what your definition is separating medium/long-term) range weather forecasting across the CONUS. But the WPO is a great place to start...I've been thinking of doing alot of stuff with NAO/AO...but I kinda want to revert and focus more on the western Pacific region. Isn't there some sort of (strong) correlation between behavior of the jet there and how it will respond here (like a 10-14...or 14-18 day lag)? Low east Asian MT anomalies/AAM anomalies eventually result in low Rocky mountain MT/AAM anomalies down the road = trough digging through the west?

That's a very good point..and further emphasizes the reasoning of why we BD more frequently during the transition seasons. Very interesting too about eastern Asia/Japan...that would probably explain why that area is a major area of interest for those who monitor MT?

I wouldn't mind snow/cold into April...I mean the last time that happened we had a monster severe wx outbreak only a month later. 2018 was wild...I think we even had snow showers down in Danbury around mid-April. I've always wondered this (I think I kinda had done some research with this a while back) but I would think we stand a better chance of having an active/early start to convective season if we're colder deeper into spring.

Most of my cardio comes during the summer when I'm running between inside and outside when t'storms are coming

These past couple of cold shots have been pretty decent. Looks like we can continue seeing brief cold shots well into March so perhaps something can just time right for once

I've been wanting to diet better but just haven't done it. Just have to strap down and come up with something and just do it.

I use styling wax...no more gel. Just run the fingers through the hair and do the magic. But yup...always cold. In fact, I wonder if something is causing my body temperature to be low. When I went to urgent care last month for my stomach they took my temperature (what a fancy tool too) and it was like 98.2 or 98.1...maybe that's why I'm always cold. I think I have poor circulation. But no way you'd catch me outside in a tee shirt in this cold.

It was brutal this morning when I left. I was pissed too b/c I didn't put a sweatshirt on under my jacket. I had already started doing my hair and realized I forgot to put my sweatshirt on...I was so pissed.

Time to start gearing up towards summer!! Any thoughts on May/June out in the Plains in terms of the pattern? I hope to God we don't see a massive ridge build in the central U.S. otherwise I'll be a bit upset.

+10000000000

This!!! It would be freaking awesome if someone who had the skill really divulged into the data and did some extensive research. For example, looking at periods where a phase change occurred and determining the percentages a storm occurred during a phase change...or a transition period. Or how many storms producing > "x" amount of snow (choosing climate locations for data source) occurred when positive or negative....and just so forth. The list can go and go. All of these results can be used to vastly increase medium/long range forecasting.

I love you!!

Yes...although I've been having trouble accessing them. When clicking the link it directs to a bunch of folders and when clicking on the daily values it wants to open up something and the computer can't recognize the file or something. But I wish the process would be as easy as taking 7-days worth of numbers, adding, then dividing lol. One time for hahas I added up all the daily values for January 1950 and divided by 31 and checked if it equaled the Jan 1950 value...nope