weatherwiz

I would be excited for the prospects this winter and next spring (attempt #2 at going out west) with what could be a La Nina but honestly with climate change and other factors ENSO just doesn't seem to hold the weight it once did (with exception of a strong event)...that or perhaps with just a growing data set correlations that were once thought to be correlations just aren't as strong anymore.

yup...and convection in general. I mean I've had crap...CRAP. There was that one day though in late spring where I had hail on 2-3 different occasions but this is ridiculous. I was so pumped about going to OK at the end of the May but obviously with everything going on we didn't...which worked out b/c the season has been crap there too. There have been a few good events in the Northeast though...the PA derecho and the stupid CT enhanced risk in which the biggest severe threat was north and west of here and that's exactly what happened...yet we had an enhanced here AND a tornado watch...stupid. But there's nothing...nothing to look forward to, nothing exciting. Second half of summer can be fun but it's usually nocturnal events...I don't care for those that much...you can't see cloud features and I don't have the energy to stay up all night anymore for them. Our weather patterns have been nothing short of fooked. It's tiring and it needs to stop.

My head is about to explode...I am getting more and more upset everyday. Very tough not to melt

It's on Netflix? Sick

This summer is stupid...absolutely ridiculous. Just no good CAPE in sight or no good anything...just pure 100% trash. I suppose perhaps around next Wednesday could be something...looks like perhaps an open wave which usually comes with good shear and even directional shear but we'll probably get screwed by poor timing. Lapse rates would probably be garbage anyways. I guess all we can hope for is a massive heat ridge to build in the center of the country and we can get some ridge roller potential...actually this looks to happen but we get screwed and the mid-Atlantic gets whacked. This has been complete bullshit. There was that one really good event into MA...the one where we had that ridiculous enhanced risk into CT...and then saw an extension of a tornado watch into CT which was completely unwarranted and not necessary. Enhanced risk for that crap AND a tornado watch...really????

Looks like the pattern is setting up for some big time MCS action/derecho potential across the mid-Atlantic. Oh joy

I might have a meltdown soon. This is fooking ridiculous. Haven't gone chasing ANYWHERE.

wish we lived there

Has anyone been using NBM MOS at all? Or does anyone know if it runs extended like the GFSx? From what I can find I don't see anything. But MOS is freaking awful...want to see if NBM is any better.

I think they've had more marginal and slight risks up that way than we've had

I used to hate tomatoes and then something happened and I love them...especially garden tomatoes.

yeah right do you grow cucumbers or tomatoes? I'll eat some of those

I hate lawns and I hate gardens. If someone were to ever ask me to care for their plants I'd care for them by emptying my bladder in them

Might be thinking of another year...there was a year where NY/PA got hammered with damaging wind events but we kinda were left out. I also think 2003 was like the only PDS tornado watch we've ever had.

This may go down as the worst severe season we've ever had. This is horrific...it sucks. Reminds me of like 2003 and 2009 where all the big events happened in NY/PA and we got screwed. Although...MA has had some decent action...can't let backyard-ism get to me but I haven't even had anything to chase ughhhhhhh

ughhh next week is going to blow. maybe down into the 40's a few nights

I can't win. When I'm home BDL gets shafted and when i go to my girlfriends in Newtown...BDL gets hit lol. Only action I've seen so far is with that cold pool like a month ago when I got hail on 3 different occasions but so far this season SUCKS. Haven't been chasing once. My girlfriend said she is down to go chasing with me once too and try it...NEED A SETUP. HOW ******* HARD IS THAT???

that came up nicely

Good point haha...though I think it's a bit easier with the HRRR than with other models

I can certainly see how if they get snow events in June they can be pretty big...especially taping into Gulf moisture and drawing that into the system. These troughs which have been pushing into the west coast have been no joke. Even tomorrow...snow levels drop in to like 7,000 feet in like CA/UT and PAC NW. Big time fire danger too in some areas of NV.

I love the HRRR...sure it can definitely be done at times but if you're able to recognize those situations then you just disregard it. But outside of those situations it's pretty damn good

I saw there was some place that had more than they had all winter...that was kinda shocking given how active it was out that way. I think parts of CO broke records or at least had like top 5. It's been crazy...I think first winter related watches came back in like mid-September..

The west has been extremely fascinating. Go from torch to snow in the mountains lol. That winter storm they got in parts of WY and MT was pretty sick. How common is that for June for them?

Just really depends on the position of the cut-off low. If we are hot though I don't necessarily think it will be bone dry...there would be MCS potential and several opportunities for convection. Either way just zero confidence to really lean one way or another

Well looks like GFS caving to the Euro for next week.