weatherwiz

It's a shame the developing jet streak doesn't really get going sooner. It starts to round the base of shortwave south of our region. If that happened as it was exiting the Ohio Valley this would probably a region wide 12-18'' type deal. Would possibly help with pushing that QPF farther northwest...but I still think that ultimately happens. Even some nice MAUL's on some of the soundings.

I definitely think we’ll continue seeing ticks northwest. In fact, I was considering going 8-12” statewide. This is going to be yet another super impressive band. Perfect or nearly perfect H85 and H7 low tracks for heavy snow to move over CT. The 800-600 fronto from the FSU banding site was nuts. 60+ knots inflow too feeding moisture into the storm. Probably see QPF continue to bump a bit too

This was a pretty fun storm. Usually on weekends I'll stay at a friend's house in Bethel and my plan was to drive into Branford Monday morning. I was actually considering getting a hotel room Sunday night but thought I'd be fine leaving like 6:30 AM Monday. Woke up at 6 and there was already about 3-4'' of snow on the road so I just worked remote...worked remote yesterday too. Actually probably got another 3-4'' yesterday from off and on snow. Winds were pretty crazy.

I deserved to be tied up against a tree and beat with a stick. I am liking the HRRR though

OH God...I can't believe I am posting a model snowfall map. Oh please Lord forgive me for my sins. I am going to have to do hailmarys until my sins are forgiven. This is a sad and terrible day.

Even the 2z HRRR is looking a bit more juiced...or maybe it's just faster with timing

it does

I only know it on WSI. I never really use it though...sometimes I like to look at it for fun. It's one of those models that defines the phrase "even a blind squirrel finds a nut".

I wish we could steal it and hope we do. I mean the Nets are actually decent...NJ doesn't deserve anymore miracles

northern NJ is going to get absolutely pounded. Such consistent signals there. Someone is def getting 2' there

Nothing wrong with filling up the bath tub a bit early

The RPM is pretty horrific east of the CT River lol.

Actually looks pretty decent across SW CT. Decent instability too with those super steep lapse rates. Could see a scenario where they could tack on 3-5'' with this

Tuesday evening might be a bit impressive in terms of some re-development snows across parts of NYS down into eastern PA and parts of NJ. Super steep mid-level lapse rates combined with some pretty impressive llvl lift. Could see some nasty snow squalls there but I think the good remain west of our area.

I certainly may end up beating myself up with this. I mean you know me...I'm usually one to be on the conservative side and I have a huge obsession with H7 RH and track. Why I elected to be so aggressive here...well I had reasons which I thought would outweigh here but just knowing how these work, probably won't happen.

I do too...I think overall the output will be similar to that of the Dec storm...pretty much the majority of the state gets around a foot. And if lucky...some much more

The H7 closing off so early and actually becoming pretty tightly compact (is that even the proper term for it lol) seems to ingest alot of dry air ahead of it and while we do try to recover it might not be enough. Just another ughhhhhhhh here lol.

yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM

18z NAM bufkit for BDL and Waterbury does look solid. For Waterbury, it actually looks to show a good 8-hour window of 1''/HR with 3-4 HR of 2''/HR with ratios about 15:1 to maybe 18:1

yeah the H7 evolution is certainly not ideal for a HECS. It's such a bizarre evolution. I almost wonder if the NAM is correct with it...it just gets so jumpy with it.

The H7 evolution is really pissing me off. The system becomes vertically stacked by early afternoon with H7 placement PERFECT for us...totally perfect. But then H7 becomes more elongated and doesn't even appear to be vertically stacked anymore. If you look at Monday evening and down to H85...that is another area of perfection to us...this is why I am wondering if we can see some sort of llvl fronto band...obviously the goods wouldn't be great but we could still snow and accumulate. But...you look at H7 and we have a mess of dry air aloft with H7 trying to become a bit more compact and closed off to our west (not good). If H7 just slide to our south and east....ughhhhhhhhhhh

totally agreed...there is definitely going to be surprises...good surprises and bad ones lol. Hopefully we are on the good side

At least for my forecast, I hope I'm not QPF hugging too much here. It's great seeing these QPF outputs (which I obviously weighed heavily on) but damn...I think there's quite a bit to be nervous about for even getting widespread 12'' plus here. It really is just going to depend on how long we are getting maximized rates. But this is IJD (and this is very similar throughout CT) but look at how rapidly drier air starts getting down into where the DGZ would be. I'm nervous the thump is going to be very quick

If I remember correctly though that was largely due to the band pivoting back west and stalling for a while. I think the occlusion was slower to occur too so we kept the moisture advection into the storm. If H7 was to slide south and east and then take a more northeast turn as opposed to what the models are doing with it now...that type of scenario (I think) would be very likely and we would see widespread 18-24 across the state with some 30'' totals

It takes very little rising motion to get the sinking motion with the clothes