weatherwiz

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

From the press conference today it sounded like they just dropped the ball. Eversource said they didn't even really have an accurate forecast because as of Friday when they started preparing the storm was forecast to "go up the west coast of Florida."

I think that's B.S. CL&P tried to do the same thing after the October 2011 snowstorm...saying they were given incorrect forecast...they were heavily exposed. They were given warning about what was to happen and were told to start bringing in crews from out of state days before...they elected not to. 

I don't buy for a second they were given the wrong forecast. I mean the freaking cone of uncertainty changed very little from several days out. There was a freaking TS forecast to come up the coast...WTF did people think were going to happen? I would bet anything they were given forecasts indicating how bad winds would be and also given recommendations of what to do. If there is someone or people who can't comprehend what a few hour period of 50-60 mph wind gusts with sustained probably 20-30 would do...then they should not be in the position of making decisions. All you have to do is look at what seconds of 50-60 mph winds do during thunderstorms...if it doesn't click what hours of that would do then those individuals need to be doing something else. 

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

UI already restored 40k today. Where is the 50k number from?

I might not have refreshed the page but from what I'm now seeing there are 679,407 without power. When I had made the post it was just under 700K...but I might not have refreshed. Anyways...I don't know the exact number at peak but thought it was around 730K? Anyways when you look at what NY and NJ have been able to do that's pathetic...and this isn't the first time something like this happened either. I forget which one of Oct Snow/Sandy/Irene but the difference between power restoration along the CT/MA border was laughable. But anyways...NJ was hit way harder than CT...they had 1.3 or 1.4 million without power I think...outages are down to 688K

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, since about Sunday.

I can almost promise that internally they were made aware of the potential that existed and were given enough guidance to be prepared for the worst. When NJ restores nearly 800K within a day and we can barely restore 50K...that's an issue. Even on Long Island they restored quite a bit. 

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I didn’t see any trucks this morning between the Bury’s and WeHa. They were probably out but with the amount of outages...I was expecting to see crews everywhere. I’m curious now WTH is going on internally there. 

I bet they just didn't properly prepare for this...either once again disregarded forecasts or were fed just wrong information. 

28 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Well I know one part of why the rates increased which is as follows:  

The state (Lamont administration) has an aggressive carbon emission goal, and the states only nuclear plant (which is considered clean energy) Millstone which provides power to 50% of the state population was threatening to close as they stated that they were at risk to cease operations because of low market prices.  Long story short Lamont offered them a new 10 year contract and required the state utilities to buy half of millstones power output through a power purchase agreement that was rather costly.  Also there were tons of questions as to whether Dominion (who owns millstone) was even in financial trouble, they were reluctant to hand over the books and PURA said they were viable through at least 2022

 

Anyways not sure what else is going on with ES but this certainly is a driver, though it should be no means increase a bill by hundred(a) of dollars lol. 

Great info, thanks!

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

There was an expectation of a lot of rain and very little wind not too long ago

Days out it was becoming obvious wind was going to be a significant issue here in CT. Anyone who had the expectation rain would be greater than wind here in CT clearly;

1) Were misinformed but whichever source they receive their weather information from 

2) Just did not understand this setup or the processes which would result in widespread wind damage 

I know at least Ryan days before started sounding the alarm on the wind potential. Even before it looked that bad...it was still looking like gusts 30-50 mph...ok yes...sure we get that every year but not during early August when trees are fully leaved. It's the same notion that occurred during the October snowstorm...people downplaying it saying "we get several inches of heavy, wet snow every winter and it doesn't do damage"...only but how often when trees are fully leaved? 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My bill was $335 this past month which is double than what a typical July is. I filed a compliant. But I’m more concerned about restoring power and doesn’t look like it’s happening today. Not much info on their site besides they are ‘evaluating’.

It's just outrageous. I'm serious too...I saw zero utility crews out today...not a single one. I saw plenty of DPW workers though...removing debris out of streets, getting trees/limbs from side of roads. Good job on filing the complaint...I hope they get nailed. I couldn't imagine getting a bill that was that much higher...I bet there were some people who probably nearly had heart attacks. 

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

ES reporting system going down again is a big issue which needs to be addressed. Besides that power is just getting restored now because cleanups took a day to complete. Significant progress can and hopefully will be made the next few days, but anyone expecting a one to two days turnaround on a storm that knocks power out to half a million people is out of there mind. 
 

People want better infrastructure and utilities are incentivized to do so, but that comes at a cost to ratepayers which no one wants to pay. So therefore the utilities are limited with what they can do, and this is what you get.  You then hear “bury the lines!” But no one understands how ridiculously expensive and time consuming that would be .

But the fact that it doesn't even appear 50K have been restored is concerning...especially when NJ alone looks to have restored nearly 800,000. Hell, I even think LI has made decent progress. Now..sure there are other factors to consider...we have tons of trees and wooded areas so maybe there are grids that need to be replaced but the fact that anytime something major happens we seem to be behind surrounding states...and significantly...that's a problem. 

I've seen more DPW crews on the roads than I have utility workers.

Eversource should be called out...they are nothing but money seeking frauds. They're already being investigated for the debacle about the significant increase in people's bills last month. There are people who opened their bills only to find it HUNDREDS of dollars higher than previous months...HUNDREDS. A friend of mine knows someone who's bill is usually around $200/month (they have a heated pool and hot tub)...their bill last month was $600. POS money scamming dirtbags 

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Lamont calling on PURA to investigate the response by the states utilities already. Seems incredibly premature to call out the utilities one day in when we were just hit by the largest storm since Irene. This should end well..

Well I guess the question to that is...did they prepare for this? The big killer in Oct of 2011 was they virtually disregarded the forecasts given to them. So far there are just under 700K w/o power. NJ for comparison, which had over 1.4 million without power is down to 744,000 outages. They've restored more customers since this storm ended than CT has power outages. 

NY was nearly hit by two hurricanes yesterday 

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, shortys don’t exactly represent the same thing as long lived majors. 

Pretty much every storm this season with the exception of Hanna and Isaias has been mehhhh. Hell...weren't two of them named for like 2 hours lol

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Woah Windsexy? Where did this come from? Cold air aloft

You know what...looks like we do have some CAA in the mlvls. The TCU's I've seen have that look and after what you just posted I decided to take a look. The core is to our north but not bad

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is no end game. Vaccine is a panacea but how long does it last,effective, one positive right? 

 

I guess we can hope that it will last long enough to where by the time most people get it this can just fizzle out...and at the same time start becoming weaker. But obviously this leads to a ton of questions but it's just hope I suppose.

7 minutes ago, klw said:

Don't forget the snow Sandy left in WV.

ahhh I had forgotten about that. They got destroyed 

I just saw the NWS has mostly sunny skies at Newark tomorrow...odd. 

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Redux of 1804????

history always repeats 

maybe we'll get a blizzard hurricane tornadic producing system in November 

8 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

What the hell happened to the murder hornets?

When they heard the news that the Seattle NHL expansion team was named the Seattle Kraken they left the state

19 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

may have been mentioned already but sad news out of N. Conway where a woman was killed in her home from a falling tree.

A 66-year old man was killed in Nagatuck, CT when a tree fell on him as he was removing debris from the road  

There is a beautiful TCU outside...gorgeous. Almost kinda looks like it could be a developing shower or t'storm

We can all just hope and pray that the phase 3 trials by Moderna/Oxford will yield great success and hopefully in the meantime additional treatments will have been found. Was reading something about some treatments in the works to help with antibody response. There is just no way the world can continue to operate the way we are. But the problem is as soon as you open up...boom. Something is going to have to give. Somehow...CT continues to just have this under control. It's gotta be pushing 4-5...maybe 6 weeks now where the daily percent of positive tests has been under one. There have only been a handful of days where it was just over 1. but bars/clubs can't open b/c the fear numbers will rise. Hospitalizations have been up/down...they did get as low as 53 I think but are just above 60 now. 

I know a few teachers...some have kids and they are petrified about going back to school. One of my friends who is around 30 is a teacher (no kids) but she has underlying health issues and lives with her grandfather and takes care of him who also has issues. I can't even imagine what parents/teachers are going through. There are huge arguments for both sides of the spectrum and the worst part is how the hell do you know which side is correct? 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is one of those times I wish I went to school for a met degree. When I got into UConn I considered it but would have needed to do some kind of independent study degree or something like that. I would have gotten killed on the math aspect without help lol. I also felt that my best use of ability would be in policy and public service.

There’s so much knowledge that can be learned out here if you follow the right people. I just try to soak it up as best I can, and never feel like I’ve got a lock on knowledge. The most frustrating thing about this board is the declarative statements one way or another on tropical. It’s one of the hardest fields in all of meteorology still. You can’t get comfortable with a medium to long range model consensus. You have to work the problem all the way through. 

I once drove all the way to the Mississippi coast to chase. Even the day of I was adjusting and watching short range trends. I missed the storm by 20 miles. When I chased Florence I ended up in a perfect location, even as the hotel became surrounded by water. Ten miles over and I would have lost my car to river flooding. Tropical tracking ain’t for the faint of heart. 

I literally have zero clue how I got through the math...I mean I did the majority of the math at community college so maybe I got off easier (though I did have to re-take Calc III b/c I got a D and couldn't transfer it). I thought Physics was a million times harder...that I have absolute zero clue how I passed considering I failed every single test (I think lab grades and extra credit helped). Like I completely could not grasp the concept of physics...drawing those diagrams didn't help me one bit lol. I did wish I understood the math/theoretical aspect of things much better. 

But yeah...following the right people here...you'll learn more about forecasting than you will in school and it's not even close. I agree...it's frustrating during any event when people start declaring bust...not only the board but social media. Then discussion just starts going downhill

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m a pretty conservative forecaster by nature and part of that is because I don’t have a degree (it’s too late for me), but I think I know tropical pretty well.

If a bona fide cat 1 or 2 were coming to CT I’d probably be just short of calling it the apocalypse...because in CT it probably would be. 

I've learned a ton about tropical from you. I've honestly never really followed tropical or studied it so my knowledge is slim...I do follow Josh, Eric Webb, and a few others closely on Twitter when they discuss tropical so I've picked up on things but not nearly enough to where I have confidence discussing things. The only thing I really know is...it takes one helluva pattern to get one here and IDK if models show a hurricane striking 3-days out...if the pattern isn't supportive I'll write it off faster than a Trump bounced check. 

I'll never forget (3 years ago?) that hurricane models had hitting us...the one that fuji------ off the SE coast? One of my classmates needed new pants b/c he was going wild about it saying it was going to be a hit. It was like 3-days out, models showed it hitting and he said to me, "you still think it's going to be a miss?" I said, "yup". He said, "you're crazy" and ran out of the weather center saying he had to call and warm people...lol

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m still a little puzzled as to why it didn’t gust that hard for places like ORH into interior E MA and N RI...they were under pretty strong LLJ late afternoon and there was actually some sunshine there so you would have thought very good LL lapse rates and mixing potential. But it was basically a clunker for winds....you wouldn’t have even known a storm moved through looking at pics of my neighborhood....and it’s a susceptible area for tree damage too on a hill. There were some pockets of convective showers that produced...esp closer to the south shore, but otherwise, meh. 

But im struggling to meteorologically explain it. Maybe the LLJ just weakened a lot more than every piece of guidance had it as it moved northeast. Or maybe there was just enough extra land friction there...not sure. The latter wouldn’t explain places like BAF up to Chris in greenfield getting big winds though while the 495 belt was experiencing merely a gusty summer afternoon. 

That is rather puzzling. Given the wind direction yesterday, is it possible gusty outflow perhaps led to the strengthening of an inversion? Breaks of sun though would have certainly negated that though. Perhaps the difference had to do with the dewpoints? We were mid-70's down in CT which helped to create a great amount of low-level instability. One thing I just thought of but didn't look at yesterday was DCAPE. I've never thought about using this in these type of situations but I think it provides value. Here is DCAPE values at 16z yesterday. This is right around the time when winds started to ramp up in CT. One thing I've noticed over the years too is there is a disconnect between max DCAPE values and strongest winds with convection (differences in that you won't see max DCAPE coincide with strongest winds). 

I also think that the system evolved a little erratically...perhaps as a result of a transition to a more ET nature. But looking at the course of the H85 low, it actually kinda of elongates a little bit and I guess you could say "weaken". At first I thought maybe this tracked a bit farther east in the last few hours but I think the system overall just became a bit more elongated/tilted. This was happening as the LLJ max moved into CT so we maximized it, but it also began to shove the LLJ max farther east...which I think explains why even PVD got into some solid gusts.

Here is 19z and you can see the MAX over CT

Here is 21z. Based on this I would think the LLJ max is shunted east rather then going north into MA/northern New England

The core of the LLJ yesterday was also a bit more compact and on the narrow side. It really aligned rather well too with the dry slot. With dewpoints shooting into the mid-70's, temperatures ~80, and breaks of sun...it was the perfect recipe to draw down those strong winds. Let's be thankful those solutions of 80-100 knots at 850 didn't pan out...not that we mixed to 850 yesterday, but I'm sure 925 winds would have been 60-80 knots. 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

When we were under the tornado warning our peak gusts came from that convection. 50-55 knots easy here. Reminded me a lot of the epic southeaster a few years back just before Halloween. 

I wonder if anything touched down. Given how weak any tornado would have been though it would probably be impossible to differentiate between tornado damage and damage from convective winds...which can be a challenge during tropical systems. But we lucked out big time with the tornado potential yesterday. 200+ J of 3km CAPE with those shear values could have ended up pretty ugly. Just weren't able to generate a decent enough updraft to utilize it.