weatherwiz

looks like a training line of low-topped supercells south of Long Island. Think 10% TOR should have been expanded or pushed east to cover southern CT. 

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

wow almost eleven years.  This is a better setup than the July 23rd 2019 tornado day?

ehhhh I don't think you can accurately compare the two...each are special in their own way. 

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

WIZ, when was the last time Cape Cod and both Islands mentioned in a TOR Watch?

excellent question. Maybe November of 2009? (or somewhere around there). It was a few days before Thanksgiving I think. 

Stuff south of LI getting a tad more interesting looking...either it's strengthening or just getting in better range of the radar (maybe both). But also looks like it is being enhanced by the nose of the LLJ. Moving into an extremely favorable environment. Can't wait for reports/obs out of LI. 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Tornado watch is up!

wow mentions isolated damaging wind gusts to 80 mph possible 

That Winsted one may be close to a TOR

Looks like some rotation over winsted. Man...IDK how NWS warning desk workers handle TOR's in these situations...so tough to tell. Although thank God for dual pol...that helps

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Good fish sandwiches

Mcdonalds fish sandwiches are the BEST

Looks like ~80 knots or so being sampled about 5,500K from OKX. 

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

405k out in New Jersey now. Numbers haven't jumped in New York yet.

That's insane 

Tons of 3KM CAPE ahead of this stuff. Just gotta utilize it somehow...gotta get some convection...deepish convection going. Maybe watch that stuff south of LI? the VTP though is insane for here 

15z HRRR actually looks like it ticked up slightly with gusts across CT

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Jersey is wild . That all spreads right up into and thru SNE at same mph

yeah you would think so anyway. Environment is prime here but we'll see I guess. 

Tough to tell but looks like a divergent signature near Patterson, NJ?

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I want to see what happens on LI pretty soon. That will give us a good barometer of what the south coastal communities may see. 

Agreed...If there are not impressive obs/reports coming out of LI then that does not bode well for us. But the reports out of NJ are a bit encouraging

Looks like TEWR is sampling like 60-70 mph ~1,000 feet off the ground...not bad at all

Well just ahead of LLJ max we have the steepest 2-6km lapse rates. Certainly better mixing potential up this way. Also not much in the way of crap out of head of it to sort of stabilize things a bit. This is really going to be interesting over the next several hours

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

impressive winds with last night's storm-gusts to 50 with it...was like a glorified warm front moving through

That's awesome!! 

I'm getting excited. I'm in Branford and have my camcorder ready...bring it on!!! 

12z NAM for BDL at 1:00 PM...yikes

New Watch coming 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

winds ramping up here.   Not much rain so far-a shower around 5am and the thunderstorm last evening

How was that? Woke up around 11:30 I think it was and saw the line in southern CT...was impressive. Woke up again a little later and it had died faster than lawn's this summer.

Just realized but all the tornado reports on SPC page are actually eyewitness accounts 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stuff starting to spin west of HFD

have to watch those...and anything else that develops ahead of main activity. Probably won't produce in CT but have to watch in MA...especially moving through Valley

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

New Jersey power outages just jumped over 75k in 10 minutes 

Holy ****

Well it's coming...should see rapid decline in weather across CT over the next 30-60 minutes. We have a pretty ripe environment across the state...especially southern CT. Let's see how this pans out