weatherwiz

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If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

That is amazing! I've always wondered if something like this would ever be developed

Well here's a start. Will build more on this next week doing OLR anomalies by strength, structure (I'll be combining central/basin-wide), etc. This is for all La Nina's and using the ensemble ONI matric I'm also wondering with these composites if it would be even better to use a consistent legend.

Yes, this is a great point. Another year that was exceptionally borderline was '64-'65. Ultimately you would probably want to focus on the stronger type events and draw up composites that way and then when you have smaller events you can make a decision as to how much influence that weak event may really have. I suppose another thing to consider is when an event started/ended. There are a handful of Nina's that officially began during the fall months or even during the winter. Those may yield a different output than years when the event was already established.

One thing I want to add too is I was using two different datasets. I was using 20th Century Reanalysis V3 at first. This was because it covered data going back into the 1800's but it only goes to 2015. So when I did was use NCEP/NCAR R1 for years after 2015. However, when I did that I noticed some major discrepancies and this is a reported issue. For example, I think it was winter 2010-2011 which I believe was the winter with the big cold in the East (particularly into the mid-Atlantic region). The 20th century reanalysis did not reflect this. So I had to virtually start over and what I did was for years before 1981 I used 20th Century Reanalysis and after 1981 I used NCEP/NCAR as that's when that dataset began.

I only started with Nina given we're in a Nina state. I actually tried to start this project last year but I was really struggling with the climo period aspect because I didn't want to use 1981-2010 so I was going to go with 1951-2010 but I still wanted better. I'm hoping after this Nina breaks we'll get a few year period of ENSO neutral conditions...that way more work can be done with Nino composites and be ready for one

Gotcha...I see what you're saying and I share similar thoughts. But that is the big question...is the atmosphere behaving differently? My guess is that the atmosphere may behave a bit differently. Lets say the average water temperature within the ENSO region (3.4) was 27°C. So if you get 5-consecutive trimontly periods where that average is 26.3°C that's a pretty indicative La Nina episode. These colder waters are going to have some influence on convection, etc. Let's say now the average water temperature in the ENSO region is 28°C. So 5-consecutive trimonthly periods where the average is say 27.3°C would be a defined La Nina. So in theory, we have a La Nina given the anomalies with respect to the average, but these waters are still much warmer than they used to be and I would think this is going to yield a different atmospheric response than 26°C waters. So could there be a fair assumption (which would lead to the investigation) that weak La Nina's now may actually act more like how an ENSO neutral-warm or very weak EL Nino? Rays composites regarding the tropical forcing certainly do shed some light into these ideas. Next week I'm going to plot OLR anomalies and do it with the climo breakdowns I did for temperature anomalies. While I haven't done anything with EL Nino yet I may also chart some weak EL Nino's and make a comparison as well.

That is a fantastic point. That is actually why when I did my composites I used various climo periods. If you were to look at the ONI which obviously dates back to 1950...it's comparing all those years to 1991-2020 climo...I mean is it really fair/accurate to compare an ENSO event in the 1950's or 1960's to the current climo? But my next step is to make the composites looking at tropical forcing (using OLR anomalies)...is that like what you're referring to with regarding to where the forcing is? I do agree that I think we would see stronger correlations looking at height patterns then we would with temperature anomalies. One thing to really consider too, especially regarding La Nina events is how the waters have warmed over the years. Average SST's are certainly warmer now than they were 50-60 years ago. Obviously the difference isn't substantial, but my point is is a weak La Nina now different from a weak La Nina from the 1950's or even earlier? We just classify ENSO based on temperature anomalies and longevity/consistency of these anomalies but what we consider a weak La Nina now may have been considered ENSO neutral...and with waters slightly warmer than they used to be this is certainly going to have some impact, especially with moisture content and latent heat.

Agreed...I too I think was originally using something like 1951-2010...but that too just didn't seem like enough to me, especially when doing analysis on years in the early 1900's or late 1800's. But as you know, data back then certainly has accuracy and validity questions and the majority of it I believe is all re-analysis and not actual data. One thing I've always wanted to do but I'm not good enough at math to do it (although I'm sure there are programs that can do this too but I can't program either ) but when I start getting into NAO/AO I've always wanted to create a weekly/bi-weekly version of the product instead of just a monthly value. Now I know the height anomalies are significantly greater value than the raw number but you can use the raw numbers with the creation of the height anomalies. Daily data for the NAO/AO exist and you would think it would be as easy as just adding and dividing...but that doesn't work. For example, if you were to add the daily NAO values for say January 1950 and divide by 31...the answer does not equate to what is listed for the monthly value. I've tried to read how the monthly values are derived and EOF's but lie I said...that's way beyond my math skills.

If you use this link you can customize the climo period https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html Choose your source for the data set and then check subtract dataset 2 (for the dataset 2 box select the dataset) in the Enter year range if different from dataset 1 (area highlighted in blue) input your range...this will be the climate period. For variable static make sure you click on mean. This will give the anomaly. I emailed PSL well over a year ago and they gave me this link and told me these steps to make a customized climo period!

Hopefully we can get some type of crazy pattern in September otherwise this may go down as the worst severe wx season we've ever had

Agreed...there is definitely alot of subjectivity involved because there are really so many different ways you can go about things. I actually thought about doing composites from November-March as well (and that is what I had done in the past) but I wanted to focus more on the primary season and for the reason of November and March there can be a lot of transitioning going on. But I'm going to be making these same composites looking at 500 pattern, jet stream, and OLR. I have a feeling and well Ray pretty much indicated as such, you're see much stronger connections here.

Crap maybe it was a Coyote. It looked very similar to this

That's what was crossing my mind but the face structure and fur was definitely more fox like. It was a golden brown short fur coat.

Well good news is the fox seemed to be acting normal. Sniffed some grass and carried on through a narrow gap between a missing fence piece. I always thought foxes were super small and low to the ground...not this one. Maybe climate change is causing foxes to get bigger too.

Dog weighs somewhere around 50...in the 50's. The fox was pretty tall...must of been a full grown adult. I thought those suckers transited at night

Do foxes go after dogs? Was on a call and all of a sudden I see a big fox just walking through the yard. Not sure I ever seen a fox that big. Thank God the dog wasn't in the room...he probably would have went wild. Usually outside playing too around that time. The Fox would have had a 2 for 1 meal

Thank you! This is why I am really trying to evolve this to incorporate so much more. As Ray stated, ENSO is a critical piece of the puzzle, but it alone is not the overall or biggest driver. There are many other factors which need to be taken into account and consideration and perhaps the greatest challenge of all is gauging and figuring out what is driving the pattern...and more times than not it's not just one "piece" it's a combination of "pieces" and figuring out how all those pieces or interacting and driving is the greatest challenge of all.

I figured this would be right up your ally and I am looking forward to some great back-and-forth discussion from you and anyone else. To your first post, I am thrilled you made such a post. I don't want to come across and I don't want to make it seem like I am de-valuing ENSO at all. As you stated, ENSO is an extremely important piece of the puzzle. But you make a great point regarding the sample-sizes...perhaps it would be best to combine central-based and basin-wide. You're totally right, it is extremely difficult to sometimes decipher between the two. Per my breakdown I differentiated central-based from basin-wide from whether the core anomalies where between 120-170 or whether the core anomalies extended into 120-170...ultimately, those fringe ENSO regions are relatively small in comparison. This is a great idea! I'm also glad you brought up the MEI as the MEI and SOI are also important to take into account when assessing ENSO. Of course there is also the TNI (trans-nino index). I've read papers on the TNI but I am still not sure how to grasp, use, and interpret this index. Really great opening posts here! As this is a subject I am trying to do much more studying and analysis on this will be an ever expanding work. This will be expanded to look at teleconnection patterns, stratosphere, etc. I am so glad I was provided with that second link I provided where you can create anomalies based on a climo period of your choosing. I think this can yield more accurate results. IMO, comparing temperature anomalies from 1908-1909 to a climo period of 1991-2020 I think will slightly skew the integrity of the 1908-1909. Now I'm sure the differences are not that much.

(EDITED 09/14/2022) Weak Basin Wide La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies: Moderate Basin-Wide La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events): Strong and Super-Strong Basin-Wide La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events):

(EDITED 09/14/2022) Weak East-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events): Moderate East-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events): Strong and Super-Strong East-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events):

(EDITED 09/14/2022) Weak West-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events): Moderate West-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies (Includes Ensemble ONI and ONI Defined Events): Strong and Super-Strong West-Based La Nina Winter Temperature Anomalies: