weatherwiz

Still looks good for a few strong storms tomorrow!!!

But did it really catch everyone off guard or was everyone forecasting high activity because it was another Nina so everyone assume it would be an above-average season b/c "it's supposed to be"? Even when the revised numbers came out indicating it would be less extreme, the thought was still above-average. Is it difficult for anyone to ever come out and admit initial thinking was incorrect instead of trying to justify an initial call? There was never...ever, at any point since Spring indicating conditions would become favorable.

We got a hotel just outside Salem. Going for the weekend. But thanks for the input regarding traffic!

I went a few summers ago but obviously COVID restrictions held things down. What was your experience during Halloween? (We're going the weekend of Oct 22)

My girlfriend and I are going to Salem that weekend. Celebrating our one-year a little late. Speaking of 40's though...I've debated going bac to drinking a 40 during Bruins games this year.

This is going to be the first Hartford Wolf Pack home opener I'm missing since 2006.

someone paid me enough

Been talking about this since last week!!!!!

Ahh I did some digging on the site https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/help/ and found this information. I think when choosing standardized anomaly you're getting the anomalies in standard deviation (I guess that should have been obvious). So In the examples I posted the one on the right is -3SD to +3SD. for some reason though I guess they don't show the unit of measurement in the legend anymore. In the example on the link they have °F and SD in the legend.

I should add…this wasn’t necessarily in reference to the ENSO work. I was working on something for work comparing summer of 2022 vs. 2021. I was looking at mean daily max, daily min, and mean avg temp along with anomalies. I’ve always used standardized anomalies in the past (for no other reason than it sounded cool lol) but for hahas wanted to see the difference between anomalies and standardized…and well that is a super large difference.

Ohh I see what you’re saying.

Temp is averaged daily temp (max + min / 2)

what are your thoughts regarding average anomaly vs. standardized anomaly.

That's a great point. I'm hoping to re-upload the GIFs in the original post sometime over the weekend.

Great idea classifying that way! while I didn’t include this in my initial notes or within any work I have taken similar notes as well regarding trends.

Great question!

Very interesting paper. There still leaves alot to be desired with machine-learning. I bet even in the future, no matter how advanced it becomes, you'll still have forecasters who can beat machine-learning. But I think ultimately, machine-learning should just be used as another tool (and perhaps a pretty powerful tool). I think the biggest challenge overall is machine-learning techniques will always be playing catch up...there are an infinite number of possibilities and potentials.

Gotcha, thanks! I do find machine learning quite interesting and probably should look more into it. I'm sure doing so would probably reduce my skepticism a bit.

I'm very skeptical when it comes to machine learning and weather. It seems to be gaining lots of steam, especially within the private sector, but my fear is it is going to be misused. I know machine learning has had some incredible results within the nowcast period (within 6-12 hours) but when looking farther ahead in time isn't still using model data? So wouldn't it really be as accurate as the data going into it?

This isn't going to be an eye popping setup and it is still a week out so this could obviously change but it's been a signal for a few days. The overall look remains me of some of the fall setups we have seen to be getting the last several years.

I wonder how that product handles high shear/low CAPE setups. Looks like a setup where we'll have nearby warm front with plenty of shear and should get some aided llvl CAPE boosting from high dewpoints and warmer waters.

Hope they keep the animals at the San Diego zoo safe.

Going to have to start a severe thread for next Wednesday soon!

These red flag warnings are nuts

I was struggling earlier with the intervals as well when re-doing temp maps. I used a range of -7 to 7 and interval of 1. I did it for All La Nina winters and weak La Nina winters (using the Ensemble ONI) and just doing a consistent legend yielded a much better look for re-analysis!