weatherwiz

The backend may even be stronger

Power outages skyrocketing now. U p to 450K. That's a couple hundred thousand in the last hour I think

Yeah there's definitely support for this. Very terrifying. Even more terrifying that Ian continues to show signs of strengthening. With the eye so large too, even when a part of the eye gets over land he may still be able to ingest enough warm/moist air to maintain cat 4/5 longer than usual or even continue with the strengthening signal for a time.

I just found that too That's a bit out of my area of knowledge but I would think there would be some reduction of wind over land, however, in this case I don't think it really matters. I mean when talking about winds of this magnitude is there really much of a difference?

Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error.

Wow highest I’ve found yet. I think this is about 8K or so

Looks like another robust uptick in convection too over the past 15-30 minutes on the northern and western eyewall.

Despite the degree of dry air around there doesn’t appear to be any indications (at least from wager vapor imagery alone) of dry air wrapping into the hurricane at all. Given how healthy Ian is it’s very possible the dry air around it does not impact much.

Tat one supercell in Miami-Dade/Monroe County is pretty intense looking. That is some pretty strong rotation. If cells can remain discrete like this moving through the next several hours the tornado potential is going to ramp up pretty quickly. Now as the llvl jet strengthens you start to worry about shear becoming too strong with not enough CAPE present but 3km CAPE is around 200 J which is pretty hefty. Thankfully these two seem to be in somewhat rural areas but the HRRR shows some pretty intense storms around Miami this evening.

This latest burst of convection on the western side of the eye wall looks to be producing the coldest cloud top temperatures yet. Just eyeballing from the scale but looks like cloud tops probably approaching or even exceeding -80°C.

Eye completely wrapped in convection now. Quite the explosion of lighting on all sides in the last 30-minutes (if that)

Starting to see convection and lightning increasing in the southern eyewall now too.

The improvements with the eye over the past even 30-minutes alone is quite noteworthy. Clearing out quite nicely and trying to become more symmetrical by the (satellite) update.

Well both verified today then

There were hints at scattered showers and perhaps some thunder moving through.

These were in the forecast

And I’m talking visually

The back edge of that fell east of new Britain is very interesting

What a terrible drive down 91 wow.

12z GFS bufkit has ~48-hours of tropical storm force winds at TPA and a good 24-30 hours of hurricane force gusts. That's pretty impressive

Agreed...once RI happens with these systems models can have a difficult time playing catchup. There are certainly some flags to really consider here. Regardless of what seems to happen in terms of intensity (as we discussed in SNE thread) rainfall/flooding (storm surge and freshwater) could be rather devastating. Now...if a scenario like GFS is right a concentrated area of significant wind damage/power outages would be probable. Looks like eastern eyewall on GFS gets close to Tampa?

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions.

Now that Ian is getting its act together with a more well-defined center we should get a much better idea of exact track probably with 12z guidance. Still saw some jumping and wavering with 0z/6z

925mb from the 12z GFS