weatherwiz

I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east.

mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on

The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential

HRRR pretty aggressive but not outlandish given shear/lapse rates and strength of shortwave

nahhh...never want to see a scenario like that were property and lives are being impacted. If it was going over a field or woods different story.

The RAP with 300-350 J of 3km CAPE across eastern IA/IL border later on...that is insane given the shear parameters.

A 90

Funnel cloud spotted with the cell headed towards LIT. Maybe they'll report funnel in the METAR

ehhh kind of a loaded question. I'm not a huge fan of comparing events, but certainly given the potential today holds, this could be a very bad day.

woohoooo

Agreed, sometimes it's too easy to get caught up with these composites and parameters. Basically, just shows that if mature enough updrafts can materialize they have a ton to work with. I almost can't get over the HRRR...it's like a QLCS line of supercells (and multiple of them). The storm motions are through the roof too which is not good. People will have very little time to react and get to safety.

The HRRR has been trending more and more aggressive which is not a good sign. I know one concern I had against a large-scale widespread outbreak was a "dirty" warm sector but the warm sector is full of breaks. The RAP (using mesoanalysis) is developing widespread 2,000 J MLCAPE and > 200-250 J of 3km CAPE. That is very scary

Two PDS watches coming as well

It is certainly possible. If the upper air pattern favors the advection of elevated mixed-layers (and for them to maintain their integrity) into our region then we'll certainly see our higher end severe events. This was the case in 1995 (as you said) as well as 1998. 2011 was also like this to an extent.

HOLY CRAP TWO AREAS Mesoscale Discussion 0391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 311544Z - 311745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will increase this afternoon. PDS Tornado Watch issuance is eventually expected for parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across parts of AR this morning, within a plume of rich low-level moisture and along the periphery of a lead shortwave moving across eastern portions of the central Plains. Additional convective development has been noted recently into southeast OK and northeast TX. Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating to some extent, but gradual warming amid increasingly rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range and weakening MLCINH with time. Area VWPs already depict very favorable wind profiles, with strong low-level (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear (effective shear of 60+ kt) expected to persist through the day. Tornadic supercells are expected to eventually evolve across the region this afternoon, with a few longer-lived supercells capable of producing strong/intense tornadoes possible, especially across AR toward the MS Valley. Onset timing of the greater threat remains somewhat uncertain, but one or more Tornado Watches will be required by early afternoon, with PDS Tornado Watch issuance expected across parts of AR toward the MS Valley. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

Scary wording Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region.

No...I don't believe there really is a correlation between what happens there and what happens here. There are many reasons for this, but one striking one is just the atmospheric profile. That region is prone to high-end severe weather events because of the elevated mixed-layer, which tends to weaken with eastward extent. Some say there is a connection between what happens in Michigan the day before but I think that is voodoo. That just came about b/c of 1953. I mean I guess you could look at our "bigger" events and then see what happened in Michigan the day before but I think it's a unrelated-correlation.

HRRR has multiple lines of superells along with some QLCS. Going to be really ugly if that verifies. Some pretty big cities in this area too.

Wowzers

Happy Severe Season!!!!! Should have been countdown to April 1 and not May 1

You gotta spin to win

18z HRRR with violence around Chicago tomorrow

Let's keep the active pattern rolling right through the spring and eventually right into our area once the heat/humidity gates open up