weatherwiz

There may be some scattered thunderstorms which develop ahead of the main rain area Sunday evening. This is well before the core of the LLJ arrives, but still decent winds aloft.

Definitely going to be a long night down that way. Nothing scarier than overnight tornado potential

While intertwined, the concept of global warming and climate change aren't entirely the same. The term global warming essentially just defines the trend in the average temperature of Earth over an extended period. The argument and differentiator is whether global warming is causing or contributing to climate change and how much of this is human induced and how much of this is attributed to just a natural cycle. When you look at this science from all the basic concepts, I don't see how it can be argued that a warming climate is causing some degree of climate change. What irks me with this topic though is how much it is argued as whether it's human induced versus natural variability. Yes the Earth was warmer at times throughout the history than it is now and perhaps climate conditions (at least locally) may have been much more intense than now. However, the biggest difference between now and then is there are over 7 billion people on this planet and we're nearing 8 billion. Populations have increased considerably along coastal areas and with urban sprawl, populations have increased within regions prone to significant weather episodes. Whether or not much of climate change is related to human induced activity or whether or not much of climate change is related to natural variability...who cares, there are definite ramifications which are impacting people's lives. We should be striving towards a cleaner planet anyways and get rid of fossil fuels. Who wants to breathe in disgusting air. There is nothing like going into the country away from air pollution and smelling fresh air...it does wonders for the soul.

A potent low pressure system developing across Florida today rapidly moves northeast up along the East coast Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a strong and amplifying shortwave trough digs across the Ohio Valley, swinging a strong cold front across the region. Out ahead of the low pressure system, unseasonably mild and moist air surges into New England, resulting in several daily record warm temperatures likely within the region (with the warmest temperatures overnight Sunday and Monday morning). Combination of temperatures and dewpoints soaring through the 40's and into the 50's with precipitable water values ranging between 1.30'' and 1.60'' and very strong dynamics will result in torrential rainfall overspread the region. Widespread rainfall totals of 2-5'' are likely across the region which will result in urban and poor-drainage flooding with stream and perhaps some rivers overflowing their banks as well. Combination of a deepening low pressure system and strong high pressure over the central Plains will also result in a strong pressure gradient across the region. This should yield windy conditions region wide as well with sustained winds ranging anywhere from 15 mph in the more sheltered areas to as high as 20-30 mph in the more exposed areas. About a few thousand feet above the ground will exist a very strong low-level jet characterized by 925mb winds in excess of 60 knots. Where the strongest core of low-level winds traverses will ultimately depend on the track, however, it appears coastal region of Connecticut and coastal eastern New England will stand the greatest chance for the core of these winds to traverse. While it will be on the windier side thanks to the pressure gradient, the greatest question is whether we can tap into this low-level jet and raise the concern for wind gusts of 50-60+ mph which would result in potential for downed trees and scattered power outages. This will also be determined by the exact track of the low pressure. Some things to watch out for which could enhance the potential to mix down some of these winds is the potential for convection. Given modest lapse rates, instability is expected to be very weak, however, the presence of a rather moist low-level airmass and higher theta-e air may result in some very weak instability traversing the region. Given the poor lapse rates and nearly saturated thermal profiles, it will be very difficult to really tap into these winds and mix them down without the aid of convection or steeper lapse rates. All in all, the strongest winds should be confined closer to the Connecticut shoreline (maybe even just inland) where winds could gusts 40-45 mph and towards eastern southern New England where there could be some gusts 45-50 mph. There are some indications though there could be a low topped squall line with lightning which tries to sneak into coastal areas from New Jersey...this is something which really needs to be watched. Given we're on the heels of what was a pretty intense rainstorm just one week ago, it is possible the flooding potential here could be elevated, especially along stream and rivers and within areas which are prone to flooding. As the system departs to the Northeast and we're introduced with cold air advection and with some pretty intense vorticity around, it is very possible we see widespread snow showers develop as Monday afternoon progresses and especially Monday night and Tuesday and perhaps some heavier snow showers which could result in some localized minor accumulations.

sometimes I find the precip maps quite intriguing and not sure how much skepticism to place. I mean look at the PAC NW there...predominately below-average and a decent amount and then you have a small area that is extremely above-average. Must be just some weak fronts into the PAC NW and majority of precip east of the Cascades with significant downslope going on west.

Are you aware of any correlation which exist between precipitation and snowfall? I know there is the correlation where if we (we meaning north of NYC) have above-average precipitation during the winter, we tend to have above-average snowfall). But these historical periods where snowfall was below-average, was majority of precipitation falling as snow or rain? Or were these below-average snowfall periods equated with just inactive times.

If only they sold loaded waffle fries

I forget what year it was (was it winter of 2014-2015) we got crushed in like February. We had a snowstorm like every Monday or Wednesday. I was taking differential equations at community college and we only met like once a week for a month straight. almost got screwed b/c we lost so much class. that is epic stuff. I know this also happened the winter of 2010-2011 where we had a storm like every week for a month stretch. That is what elevated my back issue which I am still dealing with today.

If they're close enough, yes

yes

Agreed, I don't think anyone was calling for an epic December. There was discussion that we could have a few periods of potential. I mean if people are equating a discussion to a forecast that's on them.

The NAM does have enough llvl instability to make the wind potential a bit intriguing. It's probably a very small window though and I'm not sure if the potential is something that's on a widespread level or very localized and tied into any embedded areas of convection - this is probably most likely.

Gotcha…just looked at Jan 87 and I see what you mean. EPS there indeed looks a bit like it. Looks like Jan did have some decent blocking but I initially overlooked because it wasn’t reflected in the seasonal mean

That's a good thing? I think I had that as a wild card analog and as an analog which would not be good to us. That winter didn't have any blocking IIRC correctly

I get excited for thunder, lightning, shelf clouds, and towering cumulus. Anything else is a bonus

Pretty soon we'll all be dodging Hadley Cell induced fires that engulf the mainland and send everyone to shore

Brush fire in New Haven closing down a portion of 91. This wouldn't have happened if we had snow on the ground.

Not likely we mix to the top of the mixed layer there. Adjusting the momentum transfer from 10 to 1 yields this. There is also a bit of an inversion there...even the weakest of inversions hold back mixing down of winds substantially. We'll need some convection to maximize gust potential.

Folks will get stronger gusts from their bedroom fans Sunday night

The GFS has some severe weather for me on the 27th in Florida

This is highly dependent on the track, but it is not out of the question that a low topped squall line moves across southeastern areas (southeast CT, RI, and SE MA). If this scenario were to occur, it would likely coincide with a very narrow ribbon of weak instability. There may be enough to have some lightning strikes embedded, but this would offer the best potential for damaging wind gusts. Outside of this potential the winds will be pretty lame overall. Probably "better" than last week due to a stronger gradient but we'd be looking at mainly sustained winds (15-25 mph) with not much in the way of gusts (outside of the coast).

Soundings are certainly a bit interesting with the wind potential. The one thing I would really like to see more of though is at least some weak instability. I just don't see much mixing potential though to really utilize the wind potential. There is much more of a stronger pressure gradient though so this will certainly make it on the windier side (nothing crazy) but lapse rates are pretty poor so ultimately, I don't think we're mixing much wind down outside of southeast areas.

Woah that is awesome

Yikes just saw the GFS for next Saturday lol. Flying to Florida that day so I'm banking that will happen

EL Nino's typically peak in the late Fall/early winter then begin to weak (exception being super strong events which tend to maintain there strength through winter). But this should not really have an impact on anyone's thoughts for how the rest of winter will proceed.