weatherwiz

A rather significant s/w will be slowly pushing east through ME Tuesday afternoon. Associated with this s/w will be pretty impressive jet dynamics and a cold pool aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints will only be in the mid-to-upper 50's which will limit instability potential, however, the combination of temperatures into the lower 70's and steep mid-level lapse rates may result in 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Given degree of shear/cold air aloft, scattered showers and t'storms should develop very early in the afternoon. The stronger cores will be capable of strong winds as cores collapse along with some hail...perhaps even a few large hailers. This will be predominately ME...maybe northern NH.

That 2007-2008 season was pretty wild. If I remember correctly didn't the pattern that season switch in a heartbeat? It wasn't a transition type change...it was a full blown full court press change. Wasn't there an overperfomring clipper too on NYE?

Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter.

What kind of spider is this? Web is funnel weaver like, but that spider seems a little big for a funnel weaver

MOS sucks... Actually I sort of suck. Tomorrow is Thursday...had wrong time up...anyways it still sucks

I wonder what's been going on with COD...they've been having some serious issues lately...especially with 6z models. the run just gets stuck

This might be one of the bigger Euro vs. GFS ever Regardless of sfc depiction...the pattern configuration advertised on both is enough to keep eyes open

It's something I think about from time to time. Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks?

Yeah Jose. What's funny is I think that ended up being a "closer call" after the fujiwara Anyways what makes me nervous about this is the lead time to warn people may not be very much..not saying anything major is going to happen but this is a perfect place to bring up the topic. If/when we do get a big hit...the chaos alone is going to be disastrous. You would hope there could be a good 7-8 day lead time...but realistically the lead time may only be 3-4 days...that's just not enough.

I'll probably be the first to right off SNE right off the bat like 99.9% of the time...hell...a few years back that Hurricane (forget which one) where it was 3-days out and some models had it coming to us I told people at school we had no shot. Anyways...this is just entirely different...there are too many signals which allude to not writing this off. Even if it's like a 10% chance...that's much higher than usual. climo FTW

These next 14-days are going to be extremely intriguing and the east coast should be on heightened alert. Environmental conditions across the Caribbean, adjacent Atlantic waters, and in the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for TC development and strengthening. when it comes to the east coast, it's very hard to say with certainty what we're looking at, but many of the signals within the medium to long-range are a little on the concerning side. All the pieces you want to see for an east coast threat are there, however, we don't know how they'll evolve. Given those pieces are there though...this needs to be watched extremely closely.

I know you were...but it would still be kinda fun to see such statistics. Actually, all joking manner aside those statistics could probably be used to provide value in some aspect with model improvement. All I asked if whether you thought an occurrence of once every 10 years or so is considered frequent or infrequent but you're reply made me laugh...but I agree with you that the data set can lead to a misrepresenting due to very long droughts combined with higher frequency periods (think that's what you were alluding too anyways)

I would be curious on these statistics as well. Question...interested in your opinion on this. Someone asked me on twitter at the end of last week if I thought there was still a shot for Dorian to track west into SNE (lol)...I said no...then just shortly explained it takes a special pattern for us to get hit (I didn't specify landfall or direct impact)...that's why it's so infrequent here. then someone said we average a landfall every 10 or 11 years and said that's not infrequent...what would you consider that?

How said trough evolves pushing through the central states and blocking over Greenland will be critical. The evolution of the two are also tied together. Virtually I think if there is a good handle/signal on the evolution of the trough the downstream signal will be reflected accordingly.

I actually agree...the potential pattern configuration is something which can favor a track up the EC.

WTF happened in here?

Quite the setup today (for September anyways). Pretty potent s/w trough moving through with sufficient wind shear and steep lapse rates. Question is with regards to instability, but appear there will be enough ingredients for some svr potential...including a tornado

Holy crap thanks! That's awesome. How the heck did I not ever come across this

ohh...I know that but i meant how to physically add a location. Like Steve had a white dot that said Castle de Ginx A friend at school also has a white marker labeled WCSU.

Have you saw anything whether BOX will send a team?

The radar in NC is crwzy...these convective bands get within like 10 miles of the coast and start rotating like crazy. Some of these couplets are quite legit.

A few TDS's in NC

that's what I have. How do people add locations on radarcope? Like Steve had castle de Ginx or whatever labeled

If only I left on time. Stupid Dorian

If I left work on time I would have been at BDL. Live a few minutes from the airport now. Stopped n WeHa at the golf course for line incoming