weatherwiz

It's amazing how quickly you can lose those skills. Going through high school, I was pretty solid at math...at least in terms of algebra. I kick myself alot now b/c we were only required 3-years of math, but for my senior year I wanted to do more math so I took trig one semester and probability/statistics the last semester. Stupid me though didn't take it seriously and I just screwed around. Then I was out of school for 6+ years before I got back and all my algebra skills were gone. But you're 100% right...its needed to understand concepts and that's what I want to do. Statistics is highly useful and very interesting...if I at least don't re-take other math classes statistics is something I would not only do but take advanced stats classes.

HM on twitter has made mention a few times along with a few others...earthlight is another...can't think of the others off hand. It's highly fascinating, albeit challenging/frustrating. If we are able to discover what the true driver or what the drivers are I think the predictability will skyrocket. We do have an understanding of the drivers and what can drive patterns...but moreso of the "after the fact"...like if we were to look at 500 plot of the winter of 1975-1976 you could likely pretty easily determine what the drivers were...but it's gauging what the drivers will be moving forward which possess the greatest challenge...I mean there are times where it is obvious (a rather strong ENSO event, for example). What I'm just going to focus on for now is Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation and then try and branch off from that. Much o the research is conflicting as to whether its the stratosphere which drives the troposphere or vice versa...however, there are some interesting papers (just read one) which states otherwise and provides some overwhelming data.

I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold.

that's what that is?

Low sun angle

This is cool...found daily EP Flux animations on the ESRL page. Guess it won't animate here but that's a nice upward flux...reading about them too. Hopefully something like this will continue moving forward.

Not if the leaves are frozen to the ground

This is pretty cool to see. I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving?

could be some decent icing up north...wow. I want a damaging ice storm

Me too He's done incredible for himself...he is the definition of genius. His programming skills alone...I would kill to learn programming like that...or even to know how to come up with algorithms and indices...like he developed the MQI and used EOF's...zero clue how to even begin with that. If so I could probably do that construction of bi-weekly NAO/AO/PNA data from the daily numbers lol.

I've been thinking of re-taking math classes...starting from algebra and then working all the way back up to differential equations...anyone else ever consider this? I'm just not certain it's worth it though. I think math is one of those things that you either just get or you don't. But I'm extremely weak (and continue to get worse) with math and feel like I don't remember even basic algebra anymore b/c I just don't use it. Maybe do some online classes?

plate tectonics hard at work

This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. *cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data*

well if I get skunked so do you hahahahaha

Ahh...thank you! Easy enough to understand. Going back to your post as well...there does seem to be some room for a potential SSW towards month's end. I wonder if that's what models are hinting at and the response is the big blocking they indicate in the higher latitudes.

Are you familar with this website? This is an incredible website put together by Zachary Lawrence which has some excellent information for stratosphere monitoring. https://www.stratobserve.com/ Anyways, there are some products I' not sure how to interpret. For example, I know this displays the structur eof the SPV...I understand what potential temperature is...but what's like the overall significance? My guess is this is indicating a pretty strong SPV which is on the elongated side?

Steve...not so much. his location...yes

Why does it seem during these colder air masses the NAM likes to mix at night?

That's what sucks about alot of this stuff...all mostly GFS based and it's difficult to get access to anything which uses Euro data. AAM seems highly intriguing but quite complex with all the different torques that are at play. But is it the AAM/torques which drive the deviations in the jet stream or is it the deviations in the jet stream which drive the AAM/torques? If it's the later then the models forecasts of it would be almost insignificant b/c if the models are forecasting some deviation in the jet (which ends up being incorrect) it will reflect in AAM/torque forecast.

I'll try and see if I can gather some info from the twitter world after

Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on?

I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them?

Are there any sites which have AAM plots? I know there are a few groups who have been working to construct them after the individuals at the PSD retired. WDT used to host them but guess they don't anymore.

You're right...wow this didn't even cross my mind. Most airport codes are pretty easy to decipher and piece together but for some reason that thought never occurred to me here. Sometimes I over think and get all bent out of shape instead of trying to put 2 + 2 together