OceanStWx

Love the -35 dewpoint in the mid levels.

Better chance of seeing this tomorrow.

Snow depth change products are all around 4 to 5 inches for those cities. Might be better between RIC and DCA, like CHO, where 6+ is being hit a little harder.

There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+.

Social media tornado report last year (of course it ended up being correct ) Still not seeing a lot of room for dramatic improvements here. Northern stream is still coming in deeper than model forecasts, which is going to tend to flatten the whole thing out. Any minor differences in the southern stream or ridging ahead of it doesn't look to be enough to overcome. It's really splitting hairs, but when the expectation is 2 inches at IJD and the highest model guidance is like 0.8", no wonder people are always disappointed around here.

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon.

GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too.

Gotta watch those ones brewed with lactose.

I wish I had more runs of the EPS to look at but IAD mean snowfall went from 2 to 6 inches in 18 hours.

Euro initializing?

Nice conflicting signals tonight as sonde data comes in. Both the northern stream and the southern stream are deeper than 12z guidance forecast. Conflicting because ensemble sensitivity suggested that you wanted a deeper southern stream/weaker northern stream to produce a stronger/farther west system for Monday. So then the question becomes which feature do we believe dominates. I'm personally leaning that the northern stream is going to "cap" just how much room this one has to sneak north. If we can't give ridging enough room to flex ahead of the southern stream that pretty well limits potential.

The states like to have their own individual maps when they go to the website. We grab CAR's forecast to stitch into our western Maine forecast for the Maine map.

You can hear the snow melting.

My salads too.

Just perfect snowfall out there right now. Real efficient inch over the last hour.

You would be surprised. I have two 4x6s and it was a handful keeping up with the beans and squash. I tried doing everything by seed this past season and I definitely had similar tomato/pepper issues. Also notice the carrots were pretty small. I ended up buying pepper plants and those did great, my tomato finally popped around August and we got a handful of fruit, but I think that may have been shaded by the beans by then. The kale/broccoli gets destroyed by caterpillars.

Ideally a good ensemble will make sure that the ultimate result falls within the ensemble forecast goalposts, not smooth out the errors. You actually want those errors to compound and lead to different solutions because we know the model is going to have those errors from the observed atmosphere anyway. Median heights? No, but there are median values for other variables. I also think some of the clustering analysis gets closer to median solutions too.

3.3” up here by the Presumpscot. Managing to claw our way to a slightly below normal December. You’ve had several inches more than me though so the Jetport might squeak out normal.

CC definitely collapsing towards KBOX more rapidly now in the last half hour.

I'm just looking through the METARs from ORH for 2008 () and there are some classic WTF ones in there. KORH 120254Z AUTO 05012G19KT 2 1/2SM FZRA BR OVC001 M01/M01 A2982 RMK AO2 CIG 001V006 SLP110 P0021 60038 T10061011 56039 Ripping off 0.21" FZRA in an hour, gusting to 19 kt. Within 2 hours the ASOS shit the bed as it ticked off another 0.18" in an hour. Kind of wish those ice sensors were up and running then.

You probably aren't wrong there. So much ice research was from the central CONUS, where shallow cold outbreaks lead to ice storms. Those tend to bleed down the valleys as opposed to our active damming events that maximize cold in that 950 mb zone. All you have to do is dig through StormData and see all the big ice reports are always at elevation and always on the northeast side of town.

Big triple bun ice energy in here tonight.