OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Maybe we can chuck a bunch of precip into the column and wet bulb it down to 33 and when it clings to everything.
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I mean technically this was run out of the NWS' basement...
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Ended up with 2.6" total frozen, maybe maybe an inch of that was snow. My depth is up to 4 inches, but boy is it solid.
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They are, but may also suffer some of the same issues the GFS does. Like trying to forecast ice off instantaneous ptype but 3 or more hourly QPF. I think the biggest issue is that the model ends up having too much snow cover and then becomes too cold going forward through the run.
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That seems like a fairly obvious no go. I can understand frozen to a degree, but freezing rain??
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Ugly stuff from the GFS code. So basically if any fraction of the ptype in the period is frozen (sleet, graupel, etc) it's considered snow. AND what's more when calculating the snow depth change it treats frozen and freezing rain the same, as positive snow depth changes. So that's why the GFS was so inflated on totals where it mixes. It thinks it's all snow. Basically they never had a serious ice storm in the test window.
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We're going to need your liquid it looks like, because the PWM precip sensor is hosed. Claiming over 5" for the day.
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PQI area shouldn't have had any mixing. I think our system defaults to the last report type you entered, so my guess is that was supposed to be snow.
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Scooter smash.
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Big aggregates now at GYX as the mixing waffles just a hair south of us.
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Yeah, we're also doing extra soundings every 3 hours to provide additional data. We tried to during the blizzard as well but lost two balloons that were shredded in the wind and a third sonde hit a tree (or the radar?) and lost signal.
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Come on, he briefly hit 32.4 at 9:45.
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You can easily see the boundary close to the radar if you loop BOX velocity. Dropped PVD from 54 to 37.
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Models handled it really well. Kind of took the cold surge and sloshed it off the ORH Hills but didn't get over the top into CT.
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Scooter below freezing before Kevin.
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You can't ever bet against those warm layers.
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Hard hat day out there. Measured 0.9" sleet before I took off for work. Went below freezing sometime between midnight and 5 am.
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I told you, that lift means business. Hope you stay on the good side of it.
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RAP says you're snowing in 1 hour 30 minutes...
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Schroeter. Those maps are sneaky, because they're going to lump sleet in and make it look like snow. I personally am less bullish but I'm not going to micromanage someone's forecast and warnings are already up for generally awful weather during the commute.
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I'm leaning closer to 10:1 for the meat of it.
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Mind you I hate the P&C wording, but I could see someone pulling 20s. That banding could support 1+ an hour for much of the event. Probably the only limiting factor is that I'm not sure we're going to have the fluffiest ratios.
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Less than 1/4SM vis here at GYX... ...with fog.
