OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I would like to see the difference between east and west facing elevations too. A little upslope cooling may have made a big difference early on. Not positive, but those may be actual surveyed depths from official sites for SWE. Look at me up there around the highest point in Portland with a half inch more. Probably more compaction than anything else though.
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It is a bit of a bummer to be able to shovel the driveway and see grass after a winter storm warning.
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They probably will. Gotta collect all the Coops and CoCoRaHS reports and weed out the slant stickers.
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The NWS almost always will fall below the number on extreme snowfall, you just can’t walk it back once the horse is out of the barn. You rarely ever see an OKX 2015 kind of disaster forecast. And in general we’re slow to ramp up to those extreme numbers as they are occurring. Like October 2011 and December 2020 in NH for us.
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4.8” on 0.91” liquid Probably puts me just above normal though.
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We do well in our own backyard (like any office). Maybe some growing pains, but I think it’s mostly being spoon fed these new forecast processes in an attempt to make the national maps more collaborated across borders.
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I think we’re going to need a pretty good post mortem on the season. We were lights out through January, but we’ve derailed to the point that I don’t think our stats are that great currently. Caveat that I haven’t run the numbers yet, but the false alarm has gotten away from us. A couple causes could be several experiments we’re running this winter. WPC QPF, NBM running through a forecast builder, etc. They can lead you astray if you don’t know how/aren’t comfortable editing.
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Once the flakes start flying, we’ll steal snow from everybody.
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Yeah I’m hearing the roars we usually get when we’re in the upper 40s.
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4.3” at 8 pm. Let’s get another inch or two for some
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You’re going to need a Coop to measure it, so there needs to be one in the most impacted area. And then you’ll need minimal compaction as most Coops only measure once in the morning. But if they were diligent about it and measured without clearing they can reported their greatest depth of new snow, even if it compacts before 7 am.
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One thing you’ll just about never see is elevation dependent ratios. This event would’ve been a great case for sampling elevations below a certain value and drilling down ratios. But an NBM will never do that. Most models just show ratios until just above the surface.
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The weird thing is we get harped on for data quality all the time by them, but it’s impossible to change data once it’s in their system (hence the harping).
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Max T would probably be very similar, as Kuchera looks at the max T below 500 mb.
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Should be any minute, but I’m just a sick leave bystander today.
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I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.
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Congrats Dendrite.
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Well there’s a big difference between being wrong on accums and wrong on ptype. All accum maps are garbage really, unless we get a pure all snow event.
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There was a really strong elevation signal on guidance leading up to this. That seems like it’s mostly going to be on track. Lower elevation is running into trouble because models struggle to really hammer ratios down. I’m probably like 5:1, and there’s no model out there that will incorporate that as part of their forecast. Cobb can do a fair job, has PWM around 5-7:1 the rest of the event.
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There’s still plenty of modeled lift left. There wasn’t much accumulation forecast prior to 18z (1-2” range for your area). The forecast still has 5-7” left, so you’ve really just lost the high end amount at this point.
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Well everyone in my house has been throwing up all over themselves for the last two days, only fair that some models do too.
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1.3” here. It’s been mostly light snow here today, visibility has never really taken a nosedive. But the 6 hourly forecasts still have 4-6” and 2-3” for the rest of the event, so we could be more or less on track.
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
OceanStWx replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Nothing drastic, general look to vorticity appears right across guidance (but that's to be expected at hour 00). But guidance does seem to have initialized too high on heights for the vort max across southern Iowa. Ensembles don't seem to be all that sensitive to that specific feature though. Not sure it is playing that large a role. -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
OceanStWx replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind). -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
OceanStWx replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
This is what happens when you auto-generate images. It's winter precip onset, so it's probably something like when snow becomes 50% PoP. So you nail it that the higher elevations flip first and then it gradually works towards the lower elevations and coast, giving it the blocky look. Now the color table is trash, since it duplicates colors.
