OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I was on the sidelines for this one, but my forecast went from less than 1" to probably 10ish by the time I measure when I get home.
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This event really seems to have the hallmarks of a lateral quasi-stationary (think parallel) band transitioning to a pivot. The orientation of that departing equatorward jet streak was definitely more SW/NE than WNW/ESE, which tends to promote that parallel band riding along storm track. That's what I think it pumping our highest totals up over a foot, pushing 18", vs a more uniform 6-10" followed by the pivot.
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125+ kt at 500 mb and 140+ kt at 250 mb. Not bad.
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I have 4.5 seasons of snowfall at my current location, and January 2023 (20.3") has now moved into 3rd biggest month behind Decembers 2019 (25.3") and 2020 (25.5"), edging out January 2022 today. I know March 2018 was bigger (something on the order of 30+) but I didn't have a full season there so I didn't start tracking until the next winter.
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Congrats Dendrite!
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One thing I noticed on modeling while chasing the kids around this weekend was the trend towards a more robust poleward exit region later in the event (i.e. today). Initially forcing looked mostly equatorward entrance, a classic WAA thump scenario. But by now the dominant forcing was from the exit region of the next approaching jet streak. That is a class mechanism to get the banding to pivot and involve the cold conveyor.
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Now I was mostly scrolling on my phone with beer, but it seemed like the HRRR extended ranges were onto the extent of snow. Maybe a hair too cold (snow band was displaced a little south of where it actually snowed the heaviest today), but overall was sniffing out this cold conveyor location at 12z yesterday.
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Given the last storm had the mixing hanging right on Route 2, and now this one follows up so closely before trees shed anything, this was about as easy as we'll ever have it knowing outages are coming.
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3rd time my almost 5 year old has seen a snow depth over double digits. But it is awfully wintry up here. Had 8.1" as I left for work and will probably bag another 1-2" before it's over.
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Yeah, long term climo is like 11:1 for our area, 13:1 in the mountains.
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Even the NAM has the little afternoon peak of snowfall. It's a saturated sounding with lift in the DGZ. Could be a nice little topper. 18z NAM squeezes out another cheap 3 inches for PWM.
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Trying to align more with climo rather than CWA. Our mountains/foothills just get more snow, so we bumped criteria up to 8. Otherwise everybody stayed at 6. This was NWS wide, so you'll see things like the east slope of the Berks bumped to 7.
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Well you also have new warning criteria this season (8"). So no watch because while you may push 6" I'm comfortably below the 8" threshold.
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I think so. These usually come in a little faster and I'm about 10 pm with this forecast.
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I actually like the purple area for some paste and Forecast soundings are hovering near wetbulb freezing and once we get over 4 inches power outages usually spike.
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Which means congrats Dendrite.
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If you toggle between that and Kuchie you can see the Essex Co has a lot of mixed contamination there.
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The NAM even gets max wetbulbs down to 0 to Long Island Sound Thursday. The problem is they rocket up to +1/+2 as the precip starts. Wetbulb 0 hangs out right around Route 2.
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Yeah, it's looking like we'll get max wetbulbs down around -2C through NH during the day Thursday. I'm less worried about too much rain in southern NH, more worried about the airmass being too marginal to really stack up the snow if things are partially or close to melting.
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That's a little bit of an artifact of how we do QPF (and thus snow amount). We only have 72 hours of QPF, so last night's forecast would've cut off part of the event. Now with it included today it looks like we increased amounts, but it's just adding the end of the event.
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Wait, I thought the Euro was a terrible now.
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We can start high and adjust higher as needed.
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It's like whenever we update software around here and it blows away some local fix we had. It's almost like the GFS was updated and they forgot to carry over the code that fixed this.
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I would be more gung ho if forcing weren't kind of going through the meat grinder as it squeezes east southeast. If we're losing the punch behind the WAA, rates will be lower, and accumulation in a marginal environment could struggle. If it was a wall of WAA like a typical SWFE I would be on board for more widespread warning. Right now I'm leaning low end as you say.
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Much warmer lower levels on the GFS vs NAM for instance (what else is new). GFS mid to even upper 30s over southern NH, vs NAM 32.
