WNC_Fort

This is gonna trend just far enough north to really make it sting for us in the foothills/WNC.

Didn't expect to see everyone jumping ship this quickly but it does align with what I thought a couple days ago. This was a true arctic airmass and that doesn't work out for us. Will be painful to see the coast get more snow than I've seen in years but, that's the way it works here lately.

Euro with another coastal special. Still time for the upstate/WNC to get back in the game but chances are dwindling.

No kidding! I remember it was either Jan 2017 or 2018 when the New froze over and I had a great time walking across with some other friends from App. Used to happen a lot more back in the 60s too.

Man. Models love to show a WNC/Foothills low spot this winter haha

I'm ready to focus my attention on Sat/Sun. Next week is off the table for WNC. Too much going wrong out west.

Tick-Tock. Suppression incoming!

This sort of map is a classic @WNC_Fortand @wncsnownightmare (but one I think is more likely to happen)

Yea, I think I'm concerned by the system itself. Still a bit burned by that last system.

Still leaning towards cold/dry for us

I do feel like the MLK day storm does have legs but think it might be one of those ENC specials where we are left cold/dry. Still early but just my hunch.

I think it depends on where you are located. Each model had flaws. I think for AVL/East towards Raleigh, the NAM scored in terms of calling for the transition to sleet and the warm nose/generally lower totals. The HRRR was trash in terms of amounts, except did fairly well for Atlanta. I just don't see how anyone considers this event anything but a bust unless you're in Atlanta or west. Upstate of SC did not get anywhere near the amount forecast. The foothills fared “ok” but generally lower than forecast. SW mountains were hit or miss. Charlotte was way under. Raleigh didn't get what the models were showing 24 hours before the event. Generally, an underperformer. Look at how much Justus, Boyer, and Panovich were calling for just to see why many are calling it a bust.

Putting this in here as well. The Asheville snow hole showed up well on the models and even did worse than was forecast. Upstate of SC was really screwed. But, in general a bust just because amounts were generally lower than the low end of the forecast for the area as a whole.

Over 4000’ might have eeked out a decent event but overall, man what a bust (outside of the NAM)

I think our crew has every right to be a little disappointed. The higher elevation folks still somehow managed to get up to 6-7 inches with the wrap around. But, we struggled in an event that theoretically should have worked… in our coldest start to January in years.

If I didn't transition to sleet earlier, I bet I could have made a run at the 4” mark.

Snowing again at a good clip but again with TINY flakes

All hail the NAM. I think the storm overperformed in some areas (ATL) and was a BIG disappointment in others (Upstate SC, WNC, Triangle)

We just switched back over to snow. Its light but ill take it over the sleet! Road is a mess

Well boys. It was disappointing but also I'm surprisingly ok with it? Think we got enough in us to pull a bigger one this year?

Transitioned to sleet here. Snow was pretty and fell basically all day but just couldn't accumulate

Dang..full transition to sleet now

A decent (small) event. An underperformer for sure but I think we will take what we can get at this point

It's been snowing hard but just doesn't want to accumulate much. Little bit disappointed just because it was so cold, I thought we'd get it to stick a bit better.

Jason Boyer just cut his forecast in half. Generally forecasting 1-3 across the area except for favored SW mountain locations.