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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Fridge has the Belgians...some St Bernardus, Victory Golden Monkey, and Cape May Devil's Reach.
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This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region).
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
CFS still looks decent into March. Havent seen the Euro weeklies. -
Game prep time!
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Getting ahead here but this^^ system is impacted by what happens the 19th-20th. With that said tho, I am very co fident we cash in between the 18th-26th at the very least. One of those 2 waves works out....maybe both.
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I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Close but no cigar for extreme se PA. Not surprised...little cold air to work with. Always felt this was more an elevation and rate-dependent setup. Unfortunately we wont have the heavier rates down this way. -
GFS is firing a PNA ridge on the 20th ahead of the PSU baby.
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Feels like we are marching straight ahead into fully engaged battle for 12z. Guess this is our weenie version of hitting the beaches at Normandy at the start of WW2. Well, grab our allies from the other subs....let's fucking roll men. Godspeed to you all!
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gentlemen? You got the wrong forum bro -
Exactly! These LR models are available to the public due their accuracy. They wouldn't release them to us if there were flaws or beta testing. So there's that
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Will await further instruction based on your 12z pbp for the 13th and later on, lieutenant colonel @stormtracker. Please advise the remaining troops of their position. Godspeed.
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I dont disagree with this. It's always a gamble looking 3-6 weeks out via the weeklies etc. But with that said, even if the EPO ridge breaks, it isn't a shit the blinds with the TPV hanging under the NAO block which at least looks stable. Obviously we start needing more HL help on both sides the farther along into the waning part of winter we get. But I wouldn't fold just yet.
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Maybe, but are we glazing over the next 2 weeks? Just 12 hrs ago we were tracking Feb 13, a wave on the 18, then the ideal setup for the psu baby on the 24th. The good looks advertised are upon us. I'm not getting caught up too much in what happens beyond that. Maybe we hold thru the 3rd week of Maarch or maybe this is another 10 day window, who knows. But we have trackable events showing up now. Hang in yoda, I appreciate your posts.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Hang in there chief. RGEM just went S and E fringing the LV crew. Still 4 days out. -
They're dropping like flies in the main thread. Many won't make it til mid March.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Upper Bucks just got NAMd at 6z. Band shifted s from LV bullseye. 4-8" here. Hmm. -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
6z nam is a good bit souther at 69hrs vs 0z. Let's see how this unfolds -
Hang in there man. We've already lost a few good ones along the way, we can't afford to lose you too.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
This is a tantalizingly close tease for extreme SE PA. Later period after the 20th remains loaded. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
For who? -
Just picked up a 4 of kbs and a 4 of cbs. Delish...both. I agree pd is in play still. Not pd3 but that's fine. Eta: this shit be expensive....need a cheaper vice.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
The problem is the antecedent airmass. Isn't that cold tbh. That's why the later threat(s) after PD hold the best potential still imo. The 13th is going to be a tantalizingly close tease outside of higher elevations imho. I could be wrong, the 0z GFS might be right. 6z barely backed off the threading of the needle for Philly proper. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
About half of the 18z eps members now give the area at least a SECS event Tuesday. A little more than half of those are MECS. I would say the Euro is moving towards the GFS. The GFS is trying really hard to score the rare win.