Ralph Wiggum

@WxWatcher007.....you better get the Panic Room ready.

Thanks and same to you and the others on this forum. Cheers!

Few stray flakes here in Warminster (Ivyland) earlier.

Didn't plan on it this year. My time has been devoted much more to family. If I have some free time I will put my thoughts together. I can tell you that I dont see any indices that make me feel all warm and fuzzy. I doubt we have a shutout, but honestly if you were to force me to commit to anything, I would say we are in trouble. More red flags than positive signals. We do have the solar minimum working for us and historically we have fared well, so there's that. I dont like the coupling of the trop PV and eventually strat PV over the pole. Even hints it tries to settle in over Alaska by early Dec. That generally doesn't bode well for forcing negative temp anomalies into the region as it locks into AK, Canada, and the Northern tier states and Maine. We'll see, maybe we can get a transition to something good, especially into January. Eta: I have seen blocking in Scandinavia being rather persistent this fall. That is an area that can push into the NAO region as we have seen a couple of times. As usual, the NAO/AO needs to be watched...could be a potential gamechanger.

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

Didnt note the timestamp. Just getting the rust off for autumn lol.

Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para

Maybe already been discussed but I see we have a new GFS-para now. Fun times.

Both rounds uneventful here yesterday.

Pretty uneventful here. Downpour, a few distant rumbles of thunder, and 2 gusts. No damage, no hail, no naders.

Bomb Cyclone? Thundersnow? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mother-s-day-weekend-snowstorm-could-bring-bomb-cyclone-thundersnow-n1202811?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Just wait for the zombies....coming this summer to an area near you!

Benchmark track for us. Bring it!! And people wonder why everyone is sick.

Fully prepared for Wentz to be out an extended period with Covid-19, then another few weeks with an ingrown toenail.

K that's not too bad. In philly we learned the importance of not having a decent bu if Wentz goes down. Foles was big on ball control and not turning it over and subsequently got Philly a SB. But when Wentz went down last year we saw what an elderly immobile over the hill qb was capable of.....nothing. I believe with a healthy Wentz another trip to the SB was likely. As long as Lamjack has someone half decent behind him as an insurance policy, the sky is the limit with this team imho.

Who's Lamar's backup?

I'm out, NAM caved. Winter cancel. Reap me. Ty.

Are you still reaping these days?

Meh. Some were acting like we needed an ark:

Looks and feels like rain.

That model is the equivalent of the ICON when forecasting winter storms at 5 day lead times.

This may be your personal best post over the span of the past 4 years. I admire your shift towards optimism. Well done. I pondered this as my family travelled to NYC in mid Nov then came down with the dry cough/shortness of breath a week later around Thanksgiving. However, I keep saying to myself if this was Covid19 already running rampant in late fall, wouldnt hospitals have been completely overrun and inundated with cases and the need for respirators etc? That alone leads me to believe it was a form of influenza.....OR could this have been/was this the start of the coronavirus spread but it has since mutated into something more vicious?

I dont know, but us winter weather folks need to figure out what is causing all the BN temps and AN precip, NAO blocking, PNA ridging so that we can repeat this in DJF rather than MAM next year. If it means cancelling flights and closing factories I'm all in. Anything for a return to solid winter regimes during actual winter months. Obviously I mean this tongue in cheek....I dont want airlines or factories closed and job etc in jeopardy. But seriously, something's gotta give with these winter patterns occurring well into springtime.

But were more tests performed? From what I've read there has been an increase in testing thus the increase in cases. The CDC site still shows the % new cases unchanged.....actually irt public testing it has gotten higher which isnt really a good signal.