Ralph Wiggum

CMC is the high end perfect situation. On the other side we have the UKIE which is a weak nothing burger, and the ICON which is mainly a Rainer. It is good to see the GFS and GEFS (also a darn near perfect track for PHL and closeby) honking. Still a long way out. Im torn whether the early seasonal trend of tracking farther N and W with slp will verify OR if as I mentioned yesterday the -AO/-NAO help us out. Decent CAD look appearing also which tends to show more as lead times lessen traditionally. I would think guidance will continue to show several varying solutions and p-type thru AT LEAST early Sunday.

Pants-tenter run

Fyp @ravensrule ... how'd I do sensei?

EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood.

Icon is warm snow Icon is a defective Volkswagen lemon

My biggest fear is that this becomes a Pa north storm cause low cant get organized in time Your concern is always justified. Should probably consult with @WxWatcher007 on how to proceed.

HH GFS the HP responsible for the CAD for midweek actually ticks stronger between hrs 114-138 as it slowly lifts. Good trend and all we can ask for at this range.

18z ICON has some accumulating snow for the NW burbs on Monday fwiw.

As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum?

Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold.

I agree with this. With a -AO and -NAO tandem in place, things generally tend to trend better or at least hold course rather than the opposite. Haven't had this setup in quite a while. Definitely an eyebrow raiser.

DT honking for N of PA turnpike. Would be nice to get one of those classic N and W of the city events. Been a long time. They were so common years ago.

Main takeaway from 12z suite....stronger confluence, HP, and CAD. Even a thump to taint in mid Dec is a win IMHO. Promising sign for the winter. Last 3 seasons the pattern was dictated by mid Dec and was crud. Reversal this year. Solar minimum ftmfw!

Euro is a classic MECS track....dont dwell on specific thermal boundaries at this range. That is a GREAT look and signal. Maybe we all score, maybe we dont....but this threat is under 7 days and has legs....sexy legs.

Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line.

I saw this ^^^ then looked at the actual GEFS h5 anomalies map and am more intrigued by the anchoring in of the Aleutian low the farther the run goes out than the specific indices posted above tbh.

This will make or break @Ji irt to whether he gets reaped or not @WxWatcher007

-AO and -NAO are locked in thru the majority of both the GEFS and GEPS runs. PAC also shows noted improvement during the run.

Good look on the GEFS. -NAO, -AO, 50/50, disturbance passing just to our South. Cant ask for a much better look on an ens mean at this point. Scandinavian ridge working its magic. The key to this winter is looking promising.

Fringed. Probably correct.

JMA, ICON, Euro, GFS, and CMC all have the midweek event. Gaining legs. Of most importance regarding this threat is the better confluence showing up and a stronger HP with subsequent deeper CAD continuing to show with each new run. Heading the right direction. Anyone who starts a specific thread of this threat before Sunday should have an auto-ban. No jinxes. Let's roll.

Liking the looks on the ensembles of the Scandinavian ridging (which has essentially been locked-in since early Oct) not only feeding and fueling the NAO ridge but also bolstering the -AO. Pac isn't looking terrible with a low around Western Alaska and a flat ridge in the PNA region. Again, we don't need/want to see -5 SD in the AO/NAO...subtle anomalies often end up verifying more often than those unicorn teases we've seen over the past few years. With these looks we should have ample chances at the very least.

Approaching the make or break period IMHO. Past few winters (or lack of), when model mahem appeared in December the final result sort of dictated the base state the rest of the winter. I know things can turn on a dime at any point but generally we establish things in the period approaching. If we can actually get some of these ull tellie looks to pan out and not be a tease, we should be in businesses this season with ample chances. We know what happened with these teaser looks past years. Fingers crossed.

Certainly a threat at day 5-6 in the MR. Euro holds the Plains energy back and allows for more spacing to amplify while most other models are faster with the flow and don't allow for much amplification due to wavelength issues with a low over the GL/SE Canada much like the system from Monday which brought light snow to the southern mid atl but was moving off the SE coast (GGEM is a close look to that). Something to watch and has potential if things can slow down with just enough HL blocking to force the Plains energy to dig to the Gulf States ala the Euro. I do like the much better looks of the GEFS and GEPS going forward in time. Not a unicorn look but better Baffin ridging, Aleutian low look. Blinds are opening. I should post the gif above more often....reverse psychology might work. We'll see.

If it weren't for the fact it was the GFS rather than the Euro showing this, DT would have already started threads in no less than 3 subforums.