Superstorm

After some snow, correct?

Looks around 1.75-2” or so but haven’t officially measured. Pretty out. 
Lets hope next weekend isn’t a massive rainstorm like a few 0z models depicted. But damn does it get cold after that. Euro has most of PA below 0 it looks like. 

Seeing the first flakes (flurries) starting to fly her in Lancaster County.


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The 12z NAM really increased precip totals along from Route 30 area to the south into MD & VA.
The overall northern edge of the precip did not change much, with a sharp cut off to the north of Harrisburg & Lancaster.
Do you guys think the overall precip shield will be able to move another 30 to 50 miles further north to get the Harrisburg area into those .5 or better precip totals ? 

Wow, the 12z NAM.

Continues to bring heavier stuff into southern PA.


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Monster op hit. Could be some doozies in ensembles.


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Yeah we had that in the 80s lol, more snow both south and north of us.  Examples: 86-87, 87-88, 88-89, 89-90!
 
Specific storms- all of 86-87, Vet Day 1987, Feb 1989, Dec 1989
 

HM references this map a lot so I would argue he's using PA/NJ as the Northern Mid Atlantic:  

There's actually a fair amount of big hitters though. Obviously not the most likely scenario, but there are four big hits among the GEFS and some that are either close or pretty solid hits.

Horst is one of best when looking at long range patterns, and he has been sticking with “real” winter starting Feb. 1.


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Seen some flakes this morning. Winter is still here.


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Great data
I had no idea that December was so snowy during the ‘50’s

I got the Kocin-Uccellini -KU -
Northeast Snowstorm books for Christmas!!!
I have wanted these for years !
Hopefully we get another 1 or 3 legendary storms to add to the book this year !

2-3 events.  i don't need 8-10 snow days, and as fun as blizzards are, they take a while to clear out which has its cons.  6-10" events are the sweet spot.  i'd take 2-3 of those every season and call it a winter.  

Give me a 3 foot blizzard and I would be happy.

I travel a lot for work. 2” to 3” of snow in 10 events just makes travel more of a havoc.

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Shut up Chuck! 

Good map of piedmont


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I only trust these crazy maps when the NAM spits it out.
January 2016 or bust. Greatest. Storm. Ever.

Exactly.  You also nailed it.  2015 should be fresh in the minds of many (head starts to tick as i type).  

We really go through this every year, and some years are worse than others, but it has beem warm and snowless countless winters up to this point and things still turned around and many times the weather took on extremes of cold and snow.  
Even in the pre climate change era, winters started off slow at times only to go colder and snowier after various dates, sometimes near Jan 3, other times Jan 15 th and others near the 20 th of Jan. 
Just because it snowed in Dec 02 and Dec 09 and it did not snow this year in December so far, does not lessen what is on the table next month, and in Feb and even March.
 

Euro op, GEFS, GEPS all suggest otherwise. Not saying they r right but definitely not any overwhelming support for the control run u posted. Mid Jan thru mid/late Feb is our time if we r going to cash in this season.....at least based on past history and climo. 

The 6z GFS has a little snow for us on Christmas morning!
Only 9 more days to track it ...!
 

Starting to like prospects of a change to snow at end of this system.


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Future pattern screams clippers that bomb away on coast. Hopefully can get them to cut underneath.


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Yeah, blizz is the shizz.  Being the other resident snow whacko, its good to be along side him.
Yes, storms like this will often do the north jog Ao@ 2-3 day leads, so we have time with this.  I am not YET rooting it north, as if it starts now, you'll see too far W solutions start showing up and tainting our precious white gold potential.  Just look for subtle changes in confluence, 500 flow pattern, tilt axis, ridging etc. 
Thats the way we can baby step our way into a doozy.

Yeah I’m living and dying by every post and model run.  Weenie life ain’t for everyone.