Superstorm

I suspect the Euro is going to show very little snow for the LSV.  2-4" type west of Susq. and 0-2 East.  Euro followed the days trend.  

I dunno...euro just pulled the rug out completely...it pretty much starts as liquid anywhere south of the MD line now.  No back end either.  Pretty significant shift north with 12z.  The 1-2" of snow south of the PA line on the euro map is from tonight.  

Does anyone know what temperature the typical road salt they use becomes ineffective? 

Booking a room at the Heartbreak Hotel.  Posted for fun....not validity

Well...I realize there's some foolishness in doing so. My previous point was that by listening to him he has saved me a lot of heartache over the years. We've been on here chumming it up for 8 or 9 years now. I've been following his forecasts for over 30 years. I do listen and value others certainly, MAG is a great example. I just put weight into what Horst says because he knows Lanco climate like no one else. No one. 

Horst has based his entire prediction for this event on one thing: downstream blocking. 
And has that appeared anywhere? 

One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often.
I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. 

He also had 2- 4 inches on game day In November for most of us.
Harrisburg got 8.8, just like the Euro showed for days.

I'm one of the 4 Mike's. Nut is Erik. And I used to be Maytown but decided on a whim to mix things up and align my name with my occupation PLUS incorporating some weather into it...as in "training" storms.  
I know that you are probably one of the last people on here that is looking to argue! And I agree 100% about the emotional pendulum...my goodness i get sucked into the vacuum all the time. So with that said, we are good in every way!
The reality is this - despite how close we live it's in storms like this one that the distance means a lot. Your point about holding onto CAD and your temp being slow to warm up above freezing...I've seen that happen many times for you. Interestingly, for me it's kind of the opposite. I've been disappointed so many times in the past, particularly when I was younger and we seemed to have multiple storms like this each year (one that go snow>ice>rain) we (Lancaster area) always seemed to flip before we were "supposed to." I remember many a forecast for 3-6 or 4-8 down here before a changeover only to get 2" before the pingers would start. 
So to your point earlier, yes I'm sure Eric's forecast is specific to Lancaster and yes, it will come across as more "negative" than your perception because it's storms like this where you WILL do better than me, and perhaps significantly so. And that's exactly what the Ukie and Euro are currently showing. 
Anyway - it should be a fun few days. Let's hope we can all enjoy a nice winter storm this weekend. 

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I'm going to have to check my records at home. I believe you...I must be confused with a previous winter. 
I'm 53. Yeah, that's my excuse. 

I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. 

 
 
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For me, Horst is best in our area. He understands PA climatology (particularly LSV) better than anyone else.

When he starts to honk, that’s when I know things are looking good.

With that being said, if we are moving away from a phased solution, this does change the ball game.

I knew that UKMET was giving me a pause for a reason.


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Its 1035 not 1055 lol

Over us or just somewhere in the US?

1055 HP, wow!!


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This close to snow then ice scenario 

I know I’m thinking the writing is on the wall for the weekend system.

But something tells me the Ukie might be on to something. I would have thought it would have caved to the Euro and GFS but it is holding its ground firmly.

Seasonal trends have been confluence driven and this would be the first to phase.


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Yes - I believe a lot of us will end up disappointed this weekend if expecting big snows. However, it's just a matter of time until the block establishes itself and the real fun begins.
There are going to be a lot of pretty model graphics with some big numbers on them in the coming weeks...

We had an interesting weather phenomenon here this morning where it was so cold the moisture in the air was freezing, and creating snow/ice in sunny skies. Then, we had actual snow showers for an hour, then blue skies.

And the 0z Euro is rain and the 40s. 
Nice jump from 12z yesterday lol. 

'Morning all.  I was surprised to see that another whole inch of snow fell after my midnight report giving me a storm total of 2.3".  The snow melted down to 0.18" producing a liquid equivalent of 13:1.
For those of you dying to know the answer to my trivia question..."she's breaking up!...she's breaking up!!!" was spoken by Lee Majors in the intro sequence from the 6 Million Dollar Man.  You'd probably have to be 50 or older to have known the answer to that as that show was from the 70's.
Regarding next weekend I think the models will come around to a more snowy outcome.  If anything it was looking like a rain to ice to snow storm setup with the arctic air invading and producing more frozen than liquid.  I realize we're talking Day 6-7 so who really knows at this point.  That arctic air shown for one week beyond next weekend is insane.  The coldest temperature I have ever experienced anywhere was staying at a friend's house up in central New Hampshire many years ago.  It was 17 below and I took a walk and was in complete disbelief over how bitter the cold felt.  While living in northern NJ I measured -8 as the coldest ever on two occasions, one being on that Jan 1994 morning.
Finally, for those talking about the -22 at MDT I'm nearly positive the winds were calm and it was from radiational cooling because there was a deep snow cover preceding those temps.

Picked this up from the Mid Atlantic Long Range thread.  Really do not want to see this as it is life and property threatening.   These are surface temps.