Superstorm

Continue to think this is mainly a sleet event N and W of Philly...with minimal snow even in burbs at the onset. The dry air drilling in however is impressive - but overrunning will get things going a bit earlier than modeled. With low DPs... temps will fall at onset and be slow to rise...hopefully the cold air gets scoured out before evening rush hour or else it will not be a pretty one out in the philly burbs as we transition to non-solid by late PM. By the way I for one think these early storms bode quite well for an active season with well above normal snowfall. I am working up my local winter forecast for the local paper and think we do a bit better than even last year's 59" of snow out here....just my 2 cents.

Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE.
Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is:

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984

I’m liking that front end thump too.

Saw that a lot in 2013-2014. Always over performed.


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Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now. 

My feeling for LSV is 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet going over to light rain and drizzle.

However if that ULL passes south of us and can reinvigorate the low off the coast, we could get a deform band to set up and add more snow.

Just happy to be tracking a legit threat.


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Even Eric sees a chance even in LSV off accumulating snow before changeover....

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html


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It's interesting how we have had a half decade of 30"+ snowfall seasons when in the 80s we had none.
Think the warm water offshore has something to do with it?  We see much higher snowfall rates than we used to.  Back in the 80s a 1" per hour snowfall rate was considered historic.

The 0z GFS & Canadian like the idea of some snow for most of CTP by later this week.
 

She did a good job explaining details.


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Man, that cold air kept advecting all day. Never broke out of 30s.


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Wow, that's just nuts as we have bare trees everywhere, weird!

Well hello there, Eric...
 
Next week looks quite cold...perhaps more like early December than mid-November with high temps mainly in the 40s here in Lancaster...and in the 30s in the mountains. Saturday through Monday looks mainly cold and dry, before a jet stream amplification in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Obviously it's way too early for details, but given the December-like look (as I see it)...this system could bring snow to parts of northern and western PA...and perhaps even a rain-snow mix here. Again, this system is 8 or 9 days away and so it's a very uncertain forecast--the above is my pattern-based speculation and NOT an official forecast! Behind this nebulous system will come another blast of unseasonably cold air lasting into the following weekend. --Horst

This line is really bringing down those winds.




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Houston sucks. Pearland is strip mall hell. UGH. 
Might get upper 70s today. Record high for KMDT today is 84 back in 1950, that's crazy hot. 

Might hit 70 Thursday in the LSV. 

First 20s of season (29F Millersville).


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Looks like first freeze of season at Millersville. Let the games begin.


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Jason from CWG did a good job explaining Hurricane Michael on MSNBC today.


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I'd like to introduce everyone to a new and most welcome guest that will be arriving this evening, and will be staying in our area for a while.....
 
Her name is Autumn.
 
She's quite a colorful individual and looks to be a refreshing change from what we're used to.
 
On behalf of everyone here (except that Schuylkill county dude ).....we welcome you.  Enjoy your stay!
Nut
 

It is torching today.


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Awesome stuff Don, thank you! By the way, not sure about Harrisburg, but just down the road at Lancaster it was the 2nd warmest September on record. The beat goes on...

Go wash your mouth out with soap RIGHT NOW. 

That ridge is relentless. Nice warm days in October is great.


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Yeah...
In retrospect after a fitful night of sleep I'd be remiss in not giving the Buckeyes some credit. Down 2 scores in that environment and coming back like that...I tip my cap to them for that. 
12/30/2000 fellas...I went to bed that night to a forecast of 12"-24" of snow. Woke up excitedly at 6:00am to see the blizzard. Only problem was it was partly cloudy. One of the most cruelest disappointments personally and weather model failures in modern weather history. I remember how empty I felt that day. 
Isn't it amazing what weather and sports can do to one's morale?