btownheel

There may be nothing prettier in the weather world for us in NC than watching the overrunning ULL front end thump moisture hit the brakes as it crashes into an exploding coastal and start reversing course. .

Bear in mind all, those are 10:1 as well. Basically painting the state with a foot .

Globals are gonna struggle with convective feedback I think. CAMS will help resolve a bit of that. .

My. God. .

It’s NAM at 84. Bombing Miller A will have a really quick transition zone and temps will crash out quickly as it bombs. .

Y’all, now that the majority of this forum escaped catastrophic ice, I can say that was a damn fun storm! Always enjoy a good sleet bomb. That one was real close to peeling off like 6 inches here as well, just set up a shade too far north unfortunately. .

I want to see thundersleet this afternoon. .

Concrete bomb. Not a drop of zr yet. 15 degrees. Seem to remember someone here telling y’all to trust the mega CAD . What a fun storm! .

This pixie snow is wild. .

We’ve left the “light” part behind. Full sleet, pinging off the windows like crazy. .

I feel we mirror reports (1 mile W of Elon). Snow with a tiny hiss of a few pingers in there. .

Light snow in Gibsonville. .

Just going to throw this out there. Feel free to roast if I’m wrong. But obs. have been coming in colder/wetter since minute 1 with this system and you can see short range correcting wetter in short range real-time but then trying to be stubborn with drier later in their runs (I.e. less reliable). IMO, talking about “precip minimums” and “switching to rain” for anyone here in favored CAD regions is simple wishcasting. We’re gonna get well over an inch of QPF and in CAD climo regions not a drop of it comes anything other than frozen. Just look at setup. Climo matters, folks. Also think north of 40 and NW of 85 are 80-90% sleet which will help a lot. Lower central NC/midland SC….unfortunately not the case. .

The move away from boiling water reactors to Gen IV thorium reactors also has a ton of potential (and offers solutions for what to do with current waste) but needs huge government subsidy on front end to make it viable for utilities. .

NAM’s being decommissioned for a reason, which likely also means it hasn’t been getting resources for a bit. I’m with you. RGEM and HRRR. NAM can be good with thermals but has lost its edge and LOL at ever posting RAP. .

TBH, if that cold does push in and lock up I’d love to experience a severe thunder sleet storm. .

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP. .

Ain’t nobody in here except maybe Brick buying anything, lol. Just goofing around with clown maps. However, it’s way more fun to be scouring HRRR runs for the massive storm in 24 hours while peeking at goofy clowns for next week than trying to look at weeklies hoping the death ridge subsides in February…maybe. .

Oh so now we have “I-95 theory?” CMC trolling…. .

Dropping that on top of the 3-4 inches of concrete we’ll probably still have on the ground at that point would be enough for me to throw in the towel on at least the next two winters, if not three. .

Blacksburg still likes the odds of a little front end thump in northern NC. Nice to see. .

Okay, that’s taking “I-85” theory a bit too far…. .

Truth. FTR, also fully agree with your comment that precisely no one in NC CAD favored regions is seeing any of this above freezing. Not an hour, not a minute. We’re lining up the strongest entrenched CAD signature we may have seen in 15 years. Make the necessary prep and hope it’s all pingers (which I think is actually pretty likely). SC/NE GA and some of the Sandhills in NC? Not so fortunate I’m afraid… .

I think people are trying to wishcast away and latching onto anything. Also the general vibe in the last years for message boards/Twitter etc. on all topics has been to max out nihilism. Bottom line is we’re gonna get blasted. But *hopefully* for a lot of north central NC most of it falls as sleet which will be a super fun storm. .

Still at the rough edge of “Go home NAM, you’re drunk” at this stage. .