RCNYILWX

What's your distance and direction from DKB? We could use your report as a LSR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It probably is wrong. Parallel GFS a little better but probably still too aggressive with its warming aloft in that pattern. GEM and ECMWF solutions have looked more realistic. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Toss the GFS thermals for sure Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This little band overhead here is producing solid SN so I think ratios should be good with the lake enhancement today into this evening once that fully gets going into NE IL. Pulling for us to need to issue an advisory for the LES tomorrow. Chicago guys deserve this haha. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Call it 4" here and just started snowing nicely again. Everything plastered, looks great and sledding should be prime for the kids over the next few days. Obviously wish we could've had more, but I'll take it. One of the red flags noted by some of the posters when this event started to change character was the main mid-level vort centers being pretty far north. That helps explain the most persistent mid-level f-gen banding setting up farther north. Fighting dry air at times didn't help either, without that we do a little better. Hopefully the lake enhancement and lake effect performs well the rest of day and tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ripping here in southeast Naperville. Huge flakes and legit +SN under this band. Calling it 2.9" now but we're stacking quickly. Just got home from the office, it was freezing drizzle/mist and snow grains when I left there, and the band suddenly blew up near Bolingbrook.

Filling in better now and maybe lake enhancement starting to kick in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For everyone with RadarScope in LOT CWA, use tORD or tMDW Long Range Z while KLOT is down. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think the convective bands lifting up from central IL should help with the snow rates from near here (LOT) and north once they get in. Starting with evening updates here. Edit: looking at SPC mesoanalysis, there's a relative minima in max 2-6km AGL lapse rates (6.5C/km) over NE IL with steeper lapse rates southwest of that (7.5 C/km) so we could be seeing the response to those lapse rates getting advected northeastward.

Maybe just give him his own thread to post maps all day? No one gives feedback on his posts anyway so he probably won't know the difference. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think we need a board intervention. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'd be up for changing the name of the Medium Long Range thread to Spartman's Model Hub. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This quote from TSSN12's sig via baro from GHD I. Such perfection, it's amazing how much more rare it is to get everything to come together like that at our latitude and longitude. It's just about time for my annual tradition of reading Gino Izzi's AFDs going into that event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Our event page for the snow squall: https://www.weather.gov/lot/2021jan19 Includes a short presentation put together by one of our forecasters that I tweaked for public consumption. Really fascinating event. Looking back, it's clear that at a busier time of day we would've needed to issue our first SQW, and there was some consideration put toward it as the event unfolded. The last snow squall event of this magnitude I can recall, brief whiteouts and roads going to trash, was late January 2014 with an Arctic front. And multiple instances of thundersnow associated with a Clipper type system is rare, if I'm not missing any events, I think have to go back to December 2010 for that in the LOT CWA. Disappointed I missed out on personally experiencing impacts where I live, but glad others got to experience this unique event, and was cool to look back on again while putting together the event page. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think you might have the wrong take here. Anyway, new thread for the potential event Saturday PM into Tuesday. There's additional potential later next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

New thread for this potential event, let's take the discussion over there. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'd prefer that shifted south too, riding the edge a bit here on the DuPage-Will border. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

WE TAKE Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

If anyone has links to some of the threads for the past greats (GHD I & II, etc) in the Great Lakes Ohio Valley area since the inception of American Weather forums, would be appreciated to post them here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I wasn't going to post the pivotal Midwest snow map for the GEM but here it is. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There's the warm advection phase Saturday into Sunday and then main wave comes out Sunday night-Monday night. Problem is the GFS is suppression city for the main wave. 12z GEM solution is a good hit for many north of US-24. Edit: 12z UKMET is suppressed with the main wave but not to the extent of the GFS.