yoda

It was the Euro at 00z that showed it

Yup,.. damn Strong Winds: An unprecedented LLJ is likely to develop over the eastern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the main surface low moves through. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

Decent snowstorm on Day 9

LWX still seems very concerned about damaging winds in their AFD Strong Winds: The kinematic profile with this system is very concerning as all models indicate a strong LLJ overspreading the area east of the Blue Ridge. Current soundings from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM12 all have 50-70KT at 925mb, and 70-90KT at 850mb. Generally, southerly wind events have a hard time mixing down fully in this area, but even if just half of that wind reaches the surface, it could result in numerous instances of wind damage. Over the waters, this means Gale conditions are likely, and could possibly approach storm force (gusts of 50KT or greater).

Randy didn't, no, but there is a YouTube parody along the same lines with severe weather

I'm looking for it... including the severe weather one

LWX added those two counties to the WSW Eta - from updated evening AFD as of 9pm from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The evening model runs have shown an increase snow potential and snow amounts for parts of northern Maryland and western MD. A combination of a favorable thermal pattern along with increasing chances for near warning criteria snow has led to the expansion of the winter storm watches to include Carroll and Garrett Counties in Maryland.

18z 3km NAM is over half an inch of ice in the central Blue Ridge

Afternoon AFD from LWX om the threat SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Chilly conditions continue Friday night as lows drop to the 20s across the area, even as mid to high level clouds overspread the region. A southern stream upper trough moves east across the Mid- South toward the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. An associated surface low pressure will move across the Southeast, gaining strength/structure as it moves across eastern NC Saturday, then offshore just south of the Delmarva peninsula Saturday night. Precipitation begins to overspread the region from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. Models continue to fluctuate with storm track and inherent thermal profiles. Greatest potential for the H85 temps to remain below freezing is generally northwest of US-15, hence where the Winter Storm Watch was issued. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start to the east of this area, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks low at this time. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is likely west of US- 15, and especially west of the Blue Ridge where a CAD is likely to setup. Looking specifically at freezing rain, chance for this p-type has increased the most across the Central Shenandoah Valley and Central VA Blue Ridge, including some of the foothills east of the Blue Ridge. Accumulating snow is most likely along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially in the northern Shenandoah Valley west to the Allegheny Front. Greatest prob for 6" is from the Allegheny Front to the Washington County, MD area. However, there are concerns sleet may mix in and lower totals. As the surface low makes its closest approach, there will be some decent FGEN forcing to produce higher precip totals in any banding features. But it is way too early to say when/where/what p-type that is going to be. Given the event onset is beyond 48 hours, the current forecast is subject to change. Continue to monitor the progress of this system. The entire system quickly crosses the area Saturday night, though the upper trough remains over the area through the weekend. Lingering moisture on the backside of the low and strong forcing aloft will result in additional rain/snow showers Saturday night.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-038>040-501-505-507-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T0000Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T0900Z-240107T0000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ003-004-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Washington and Frederick MD Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

Looking at PW through 144... looks like 00z UKIE would follow what the GFS and CMC have

NOT saying this will be the same or is... but does this have any parallels to Commuteagddeon? Like wasn't that just cold enough as well?

Still snowing n va into DC into MD at 159

153 SLP near ORF... DCA ripping... but line us close

Moderate snow DCA 150

Snowing near Richmond at 147

Light snow around at 144

Anyone have the 00z ICON snow map? I'm guessing it's like 2-4 inches lol

Well... good start to the night as 00z ICON holds and looks a little bit colder

18z won't be as amped as 12z... let's see if that translates into anything

LWX seems interested - this afternoon AFD for next weekend threat As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface, with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season (and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains.

168 12z Euro has 986 east of ACY... let's see how it gets there