yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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New York State Mesonet Site at Beacon reported wind gust of 78mph at 420pm
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2000 SPC meso -- around 2500-3500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -8 to -10, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1100-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup
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I know its not in our area... but look at how fast the storm is moving Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 CTC001-009-NJC003-013-031-039-NYC071-079-087-119-152100- /O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180515T2100Z/ Fairfield CT-New Haven CT-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Bergen NJ-Essex NJ- Westchester NY-Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY- 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC... NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES... At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated.
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1900 SPC meso -- around 2500-3000 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup
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It looks like they barely do upon closer inspection
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Not sure why LWX was just grabbed into the MCD -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0430.html See the bottom ATTN WFO part... LWX doesn't have any counties in the watch box and isn't "circled" in the blue
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Yeah, I posted LWX afternoon disco about it in the May Disco Obs thread... they are saying 2-4 with up to 6" in some spots...
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Per 1800 SPC meso -- around 2000-2500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Also appears that effective shear gets to around 35kts as we go into the evening... that will help some
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evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 NYC025-105-151915- /O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180515T1915Z/ Delaware NY-Sullivan NY- 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES... At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Livingston Manor, or near Liberty, moving east at 45 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Liberty, Neversink, White Sulphur Springs, Parksville, Hazel, Livingston Manor, Grahamsville, Willowemoc and Roscoe.
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Baseball sized hail REPORTED along Rte 9 in Dutchess County NY
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Ulster County in east central New York... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Parksville, or near Liberty, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ellenville and Napanoch around 315 PM EDT. Kerhonkson around 320 PM EDT. Olivebridge around 325 PM EDT. New Paltz, High Falls and Tillson around 330 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cherrytown, Rolling Meadows, Rosendale, Maple Hill, Forest Glen, Palentown, Atwood, Pacama, Brodhead and Liebhardt.
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 NYC105-151900- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180515T1900Z/ Sullivan NY- 244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY... At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Livingston Manor, or near Liberty, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Willowemoc around 250 PM EDT. Neversink, Loch Sheldrake and Woodbourne around 255 PM EDT. Grahamsville around 300 PM EDT.
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BGM issued TORNADO WARNING for Southern Delaware/Northern Sullivan counties and stated that is has hail to size of tennis balls
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Mesoscale Discussion 0427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018 Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania...southern New York...southwest New England Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...96... Valid 151838Z - 152045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 96 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across the tornado watch area, with large, damaging hail, severe wind gusts and a threat of a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Storms oriented along the old outflow boundary have increased markedly in the last hour, with a few hail cores now exceeding 2.00". Cells were initially splitting per 18Z observed ALB straight line hodograph, but the southern cells are becoming dominant. Southwesterly low-level winds will continue feeding these cells with unstable air, and they may increasingly take on supercell characteristics over the next few hours. Any deviant motion of these cells to the south will likely result in strengthening mesocyclones, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Wind driven, damaging hail is also likely. ..Jewell.. 05/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...
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Sounds like some good news for you
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Will it be a blue box or a red box? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0425.html
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A STW you have received lol
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Connecticut Northern Delaware Northeast Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue east from central Pennsylvania. Embedded bowing structures should result in widespread damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Wilmington DE to 45 miles east southeast of Islip NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
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Good call lol -- Cecil and Kent are in the new watch from SPC
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I think we should be okay as afternoon goes on: Per 1700 SPC meso -- around 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 3000-3500 SBCAPE, LIs are -6 to -8, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1100 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup
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40% chance of a meh MCD late this afternoon into the evening for us?
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Tolland is in Tolland County per the maps I was looking at... okay, I missed by one county...
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Tornado watch is one county to your west... chase you must lol
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60/30 TOR probs... wow Mod risk across the board for all hazards except high for severe wind
