yoda

Who's ready for our favorite wind? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1204 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 MDZ003-502-VAZ025>031-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506- 310015- /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.A.0002.230401T1200Z-230402T0600Z/ Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Cumberland, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Petersburg, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 1204 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

SPC AC 301732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023

SPC AC 301732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023

15% tor contour added for NW IL and E IA on 1730z SPC OTLK Small 30% hail contour added as well in E IA

I think they meant Mid-Atlantic instead of Midwest in their Day 4-8 OTLK on Day 7

Pretty rare for a Day 8 mention, yes? @Kmlwx @high risk @George BM

12z Euro says its 80 next Saturday

Largest I see in the warnings are ping pong ball though

Always nice for a Capitals loss

MRGL risk up from SPC for wind

Sounds like some chasers also got caught up in the massive storm too

Multiple deaths reported in Sharkey County already

Been raining pretty good here for a while

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 833 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 MSC053-125-250200- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230325T0200Z/ Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS- 833 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MIDNIGHT AND SILVER CITY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR HUMPHREYS AND SHARKEY COUNTIES... At 833 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Midnight, or 7 miles south of Belzoni, moving northeast at 55 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for MIDNIGHT AND SILVER CITY! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Humphreys and Sharkey Counties, including the following locations... Silver City, Cary and Louise.

Rare TORE has been issued for this tornadic storm as well for the past 30 minutes

Pouring here right now

Thats a pretty decent hail core on LWX radar

Well surprise lol Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 MDC021-031-VAC107-240400- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230324T0400Z/ Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA- 1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... At 1143 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Germantown, moving southeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Barnesville, Park Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville and Tuscarora. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3924 7753 3938 7738 3929 7715 3910 7734 TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 298DEG 43KT 3924 7735 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

True... but its the only interesting weather we've got for a while... at least storm-wise... so maybe we get lucky

Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60 kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around sunset.

Looks like some decent storms up in S PA... too bad they will likely stay north of us

So... drought watch in effect lol

That's the college I graduated from and root for

Read up at top of this page