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weatherbear5

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Everything posted by weatherbear5

  1. weatherbear5
    It’s definitely coming west. Probably not as borked up as the 18z from yesterday, but still should be a good hit for at least coastal locales methinks
  2. weatherbear5
    Yeah. The feature over the Great Lakes which the shortwave is essentially rotating around is further west. This should allow heights to build ahead of the s/w
  3. weatherbear5
    S/W looks better on the 12z than either the 6z or the 0z. Heights higher too not as crazy as yesterday’s 18z, but I think that cycle ingested some rancid data
  4. weatherbear5
    Early, but at the very least I think the East trend is halted on the NAM. S/W is a bit stronger, heights a bit higher
  5. weatherbear5
    Laughable the differences at 500mb vs 18z on the NAM
  6. weatherbear5
    Respectfully disagree, don’t think this is much of a sleetfest. Boundary layer is gonna be the problem if anything Seems more of a rain or snow deal to me
  7. weatherbear5
    It’s pretty clear the issue with the NAM at the onset is the boundary layer, as opposed to the mid levels. The R/S line perfectly straddles the coastline. Once the BL cools with heavy precip, it’d be all snow
  8. weatherbear5
    Relax, that’s just until the precipitation picks up in intensity
  9. weatherbear5
    NAM looks crazy amped so far through 27 relative to 12z *with reference to the shortwave over the southern plains. Different orientation of the players over the Great Lakes too though. Might be tough to call
  10. weatherbear5
    Not only that, but the progressive nature of the thing means there’s less time for warm air to wrap around it overall
  11. weatherbear5
    Only if the start, middle, and end are rain
  12. weatherbear5
    I’m glad we have a little wiggle room left too. Almost every big storm for the region has ended up slightly north of guidance anyway in the immediate term
  13. weatherbear5
    Didnt you just get like 30”? Let us coastal have some fun RGEM looks like fun so far for pretty much the entire subforum
  14. weatherbear5
    Measured 12” on the nose on my table in NW Suffolk. tough to get a true measurement though with so much drifting
  15. weatherbear5
    Precip trying to form again south of LI. Hopefully that congeals and pivots northward
  16. weatherbear5
    As much as I hate to admit it, I think after that band it’s largely done for most of LI until the storm pivots east and we get back into the decaying CCB. That dry slot is encroaching fast
  17. weatherbear5
    And the dry slot south of that band is filling in a bit. I’d imagine that precludes a bit of weakening of that Uber band just off the south shore... air can’t be rising everywhere
  18. weatherbear5
    Correlation Coefficient continues to suggest mix line staying steady about 10-15 miles south of LI
  19. weatherbear5
    I’d like to see the northern progression of that dry slot south of LI slow down a bit, but man oh man it’s coming down
  20. weatherbear5
    Based on the winds, it looks like the low is a bit too far east on that depiction
  21. weatherbear5
    It’s about to get Crazy on Long Island
  22. weatherbear5
    The ULL is stronger, but heights are being squished ahead of it. The confluence is strongeR edit: also, as pointed out, less interaction between the shortwaves
  23. weatherbear5
    NAM coming in... a bit early to call, but looks like it may come in south of 12z
  24. weatherbear5
    I’m technically on Long Island, so not my subforum, but still haha
  25. weatherbear5
    That, and it would limit the intrusion of warm air in the mid levels
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