wncsnow

We already have one

20 at the house this morning. Here are some pros and cons for the upcoming system- Pros: 1.Timing- With the faster timing, it looks like most of the moisture will fall during Friday night starting sometime after midnight. This will maximize what cold air we do have. 2.Track- Most models have gotten rid of any TN valley low and have a southern track. This will diminish the WAA and keep CAD areas colder. 3. Confluence- Models have trended slightly colder mainly due to better confluence to the NE and a slightly stronger high. We want to see that continue with todays runs. Cons: 1. Lack of true CAD- This is always a big issue east of the Blue Ridge. We can get wintry precip with InSitu CAD but its rare. 2. Lack of moisture- Models are keeping this system weaker with less heavy precip for WNC. This could lead to freezing drizzle and it might accrue better but we need a heavy front end thump to get a few inches of snow and sleet. 3. The Pacific- The Pac has been a pain all winter and really the past 3 or 4 winters it has not been on our side at all. We need the N Pac ridge to move/dissipate. There is a ton of energy coming from the Pacific still which can be good but with the -PNA its always going to be a thread the needle type of situation.

It's showing a front end of snow and sleet for the mountains and immediate foothills.

UK shifted 50 to 75 miles SE. It now has a lot more wintry precip in WNC. Basically none at 12Z.

I think some of this would be sleet and ZR but this is a big shift. Another shift or 2 and it might be game on

UK is best its been yet and further south.

GFS and Canadian both look decent guys. This ones not over yet! Keep that primary to the south and we got a shot IMO.

GFS continuing the trend of South and weaker. I really think we might sneak an advisory level maybe even warning event above 3k north of 40. Inch or 2 of sleet and snow with .10-.25 ZR

RDPS looks more what I expect. Lots of sleet near the Blue Ridge north of 40 for the first few hours of precip. It's a good short range model usually. Although this is at the end of the run.

The WAA is crazy on the NAM but it's way out at the end of the run. It goes from 26 with a dewpoint of 18 to 33 wetbulbed with rain falling within 6-8 hours.

The NAM (I know) has AVL at 26 with a dewpoint of 18 Friday night around midnight. If that verifies before the moisture moves it, it will be difficult to get above freezing especially in CAD areas.

It's snowed plenty of times in Raleigh in February.

Near normal is ok

It's not showing as cold now for first week in February?

The QPF is drying up on most models. Trended weaker for sure.

Has ice still. Just not much moisture

Get your boats and kayaks ready

Hi Res NAM showing a little something too. More than it has thus far.

NAM trying to show love again tomorrow for N GA and SW NC

The latest Euro isn't as bad but its still a lot of cutters. Hopefully after the 15th or so it will finally transition to a better pattern. I'm in wait and see mode though.

Canadian

ZR Threat might be increasing

A product of climate change I think. Even when we get 12 inches of rain in 2 weeks, it almost all runs off and the water table goes down quickly allowing the droughts to intensify quicker.

I'm not there yet but its concerning. The Pacific is still ruining our snow chances. I hope we can at least get a few inches of slop before the downpours this Saturday morning.

The long range Op Euro is a disaster. I hope it's incorrect