wncsnow

That was an El Nino too

Sir this is the sanitarium, no hope is allowed here.

Call 1-800 we need Jesus

After looking at todays long range, I'm getting close to throwing in the towel. The NAO is trending to not be as negative and go towards neutral The cold dump is going in the west and will take weeks before it gets here if it does at all it will be modified cold. The MJO is going back to warm phases and could get stuck in those. The PNA and Pacific in general is a big problem. We need to fix a lot before we get a real shot of a true winter storm producing pattern. Otherwise its thread the needle and hope for a miracle.

Hi Res NAM still on the ice train

Cold keeps shifting west on the ensembles. The clock is ticking..

15 at the house this morning. Surprised by the outline of the warnings and advisories.

The latest NAM was a little colder than the previous run. We may have some power outages along the escarpment from Transylvania up to the VA border.

Hi Res and regular NAM still very icy for escarpment areas.

New HRRR does start out as more snow and sleet than earlier runs. It's probably wrong but let's see if it starts a trend.

I remember you as one of the "originals" Back then Burger, Griteater, Packbacker, Widreman and so many more. Some who have passed on I'm sure. It's a great community to be a part of.

Hi Res NAM Ice

NAM is coming in warmer. Pretty much all of the models all. This is trending towards a nuisance event.

There were some meager winters in 2006-2008 (kind of like now) in my location so I was looking for any crumb of information for snow. I have noticed a cyclical pattern to snowfall amounts for MBY. We will get 2 or 3 snowy winters in a row then 2 or 3 winters with a shutout or very little snow. For example 2006, 2007, 2008 was terrible, then 2009, and 2010 were good. 2011, 2012, and 2013 were bad, and 2014, 2015, and 2016 were all pretty good.

Some of us go back to the Easternwx days and before that even. I think I first started around 2005. Even tried the accuweather forums back then (nowhere near as good as these)

Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10.

Battle between the PNA, NAO, MJO and AO. I'm still not convinced we get a snowy period though because the PNA seems to be running the show.

Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups.

GFS is a strung out mess. About to put this one to bed even though my expectations were super low even for mountain and northern foothill areas.

NAM still showing a little snow then ice

GFS with a nice little front end thump of snow

Long range NAM started to show precip starting as snow now. Was only showing rain or ZR previous runs.

After 4-6 inches of rain the next week or so, I'm afraid a lot will lose any hope left remaining for this winter.

Mostly yes.

Euro is about the same as last night