After looking at todays long range, I'm getting close to throwing in the towel.
The NAO is trending to not be as negative and go towards neutral
The cold dump is going in the west and will take weeks before it gets here if it does at all it will be modified cold.
The MJO is going back to warm phases and could get stuck in those.
The PNA and Pacific in general is a big problem.
We need to fix a lot before we get a real shot of a true winter storm producing pattern. Otherwise its thread the needle and hope for a miracle.