wncsnow

Hi Res and regular NAM still very icy for escarpment areas.

New HRRR does start out as more snow and sleet than earlier runs. It's probably wrong but let's see if it starts a trend.

I remember you as one of the "originals" Back then Burger, Griteater, Packbacker, Widreman and so many more. Some who have passed on I'm sure. It's a great community to be a part of.

Hi Res NAM Ice

NAM is coming in warmer. Pretty much all of the models all. This is trending towards a nuisance event.

There were some meager winters in 2006-2008 (kind of like now) in my location so I was looking for any crumb of information for snow. I have noticed a cyclical pattern to snowfall amounts for MBY. We will get 2 or 3 snowy winters in a row then 2 or 3 winters with a shutout or very little snow. For example 2006, 2007, 2008 was terrible, then 2009, and 2010 were good. 2011, 2012, and 2013 were bad, and 2014, 2015, and 2016 were all pretty good.

Some of us go back to the Easternwx days and before that even. I think I first started around 2005. Even tried the accuweather forums back then (nowhere near as good as these)

Counting Saturday's storm, the 12Z Euro has 4 different rainstorms and dumps the majority of the cold in the west through day 10.

Battle between the PNA, NAO, MJO and AO. I'm still not convinced we get a snowy period though because the PNA seems to be running the show.

Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups.

GFS is a strung out mess. About to put this one to bed even though my expectations were super low even for mountain and northern foothill areas.

NAM still showing a little snow then ice

GFS with a nice little front end thump of snow

Long range NAM started to show precip starting as snow now. Was only showing rain or ZR previous runs.

After 4-6 inches of rain the next week or so, I'm afraid a lot will lose any hope left remaining for this winter.

Mostly yes.

Euro is about the same as last night

Has some ZR too

GFS is light on precip but does show more snow in the mountains than previous runs

A lot of the long range guidance has gone back to SE Ridge and cold dump in the west..

RDPS still showing a lot of ice for CAD favored areas. This is likely overdone but there is potential for .25-.50 for CAD favored areas north of 40 near the Blue Ridge. Of course some of it could be sleet there too.

ICE totals going up on the NAM. I do think some of it will be sleet though.

NAM coming in with a lot more ZR

We already have one

20 at the house this morning. Here are some pros and cons for the upcoming system- Pros: 1.Timing- With the faster timing, it looks like most of the moisture will fall during Friday night starting sometime after midnight. This will maximize what cold air we do have. 2.Track- Most models have gotten rid of any TN valley low and have a southern track. This will diminish the WAA and keep CAD areas colder. 3. Confluence- Models have trended slightly colder mainly due to better confluence to the NE and a slightly stronger high. We want to see that continue with todays runs. Cons: 1. Lack of true CAD- This is always a big issue east of the Blue Ridge. We can get wintry precip with InSitu CAD but its rare. 2. Lack of moisture- Models are keeping this system weaker with less heavy precip for WNC. This could lead to freezing drizzle and it might accrue better but we need a heavy front end thump to get a few inches of snow and sleet. 3. The Pacific- The Pac has been a pain all winter and really the past 3 or 4 winters it has not been on our side at all. We need the N Pac ridge to move/dissipate. There is a ton of energy coming from the Pacific still which can be good but with the -PNA its always going to be a thread the needle type of situation.