wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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Less precip.. don't like that. First Euro run in a while that brought precip totals down instead of up.. -
Here are my reasons for optimism- 1. Snow pack to the north and cold in place 2. Cold (frozen) ground and sun angle are ideal for quick accumulation 3. Majority of the precipitation falls at night. Easier to stick. 4. Confluence should prevent it cutting too far north/west 5. The air is dry out ahead and will allow for evaporative cooling.
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The 00Z run will be interesting.
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Yep it's close but it's also the HR 84 NAM so it should be looked on a broader scale
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Heavy snow WNC
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Pretty cold on the NAM
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Looks good through 63. Let's see if it shears it out like the Euro is doing.
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18Z NAM has some differences. More precip on the northern side of the system through 60.
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Euro or Euro AI? I thought the regular Euro was a tad too far south originally
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My early forecast- Smokies and Balsams- 4-8 inches all snow Asheville- 2-4" Northern Foothills- McDowell, Burke, Caldwell- 2-4" ending with some sleet Southern Foothills- Rutherford, Cleveland- 1-3" some sleet and ZR
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The Euro did shift the low track west near the coast.
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The rates are pretty low across most of NC. We need heavier banding to setup
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Well the good mojo may have stopped. The UK is weaker and warmer.
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The Canadian is slightly north but fine for I 40. A lot of the sleet would be snow IMO.
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A lot of places start as snow then mix further east.
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Mountain and foothills special this run.
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Much further south
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Looks like a good run of the GFS coming. Think it will be a little further south with the confluence stronger
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Shouldn't be a big issue with the storm track. Models can overdo it at times. My biggest concern is gulf convection
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Baby steps. Still trending positively for WNC.
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Just noise really not a huge difference.
