wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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This is the previous run
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Well the UKMET also stepped back on precip totals and snow totals for western areas.. I'm guessing the euro will be pretty dry too
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Yes, especially the hrrr
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Yes it would.. but I think they play FSU next.. another chance to get a big win
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The HRRR is increasing moisture each run it seems as we get closer to go time so its starting to align more with the Nam and other short range models
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May get them in the dance.. unless they lose to unc..again
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Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes
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Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run
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Pretty much every model has gotten drier tonight, especially for my area
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GFS is also very similar to its 18Z run
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
wncsnow replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
My forecast- Haywood/Jackson/Swain- Generally 2-5 Buncombe/Madison/Henderson- Generally 1 to 3 Yancey/Mitchell/Avery- 1 to 3 inches Asheville City- 1.5 Boone- 1.5 Hendersonville- 2 Marion/Morganton- 1 inch grassy areas Rutherfordton- .5 to 1 inch grassy areas Jackpot for WNC- Rainforrest- 5.5 inches Snow will fall most of the day but will gave trouble accumulating due to low rates and marginal temperatures. -
RGEM snow map...
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Ask and ye shall receive
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The HRW
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HRRR QPF
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Next time I will lie and say the model looked great
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Don't kill the messenger. Just stating the facts. This was the worst SREF and NAM twin run for areas west of 77 since Monday.
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Maybe for your area but for northern and western sections there was much less moisture
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SREF snow mean was 3.6 in Hickory now its 2.2 In Asheville it was 4.2 now less than 3
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Yes
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
wncsnow replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
I know you cant but the fact that the NAM and SREF went down significantly right before game time is not a good sign -
2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
wncsnow replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Anyone who went with 3 to 6 totals may be eating crow if the new hi Res Nam is correct -
HI Res Nam even drier for western sections. Leeside shadow showing up again
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Snow map reflects the changes. I knew when the sref was drier the Nam wouldn't be as good.
