wncsnow

Hope you do well. I haven't caught much there since Helene

Need the NAO to trend a bit stronger negative to help switch up the Pacific. There's positive signs, especially after the first week of January. Getting that subtropical jet going will be huge.

Just to temper things a little. I like middle month but maybe we can get a light event the first 10 days of January.

And remember last winter when you told me you would be shoveling your driveway when the Gulf Coast got hammered? Everyone is wrong sometime.

There are some positive changes but its far from a slam dunk. The EPS is still not quite cold enough for most for the 4th-7th. The Op GFS looks terrible. The GEFS isnt there yet either.

We'll see what happens. Cold and wintry is still far from a certainty. There are positive signs out west but it could trend the other way

You know its not good when we are relying on the JMA seasonal.. Now that Christmas is over, lets get real about the pattern. It's pretty obvious we are punting until at least January 10. Its not a torch but more of a wash rinse repeat of cutter, brief cool down, warm up, rain. Most seasoned mets and long range forecasts are pointing to the period of January 12-20 for our next real shot of snow. Will that materialize? Who knows but we are about to start wasting prime climo. I don't see a January 2022 repeat next month. Maybe we get a week or 2 period but 2022 was cold for most of the month with multiple snows in different parts of the state.

75 for the high. Has to be an all time record..

Merry Christmas everyone. Us foothills folks deserve a February 1969 redux for Christmas

Op Euro not impressed with winter weather chances the first week of the month.

High of 72 so far..

64 already. What a beautiful morning.

And they shouldn't be taken too seriously unless they show something consistent multiple runs. Remember a few winters ago when they showed a colder pattern always a few weeks away that never really happened? Just another tool you can use to get a big picture.

@Met1985

There's Jan 2022 showing up again

I remember a time when the skies needed to heal before it could snow

The Weeklies literally just had a run of above average for the month of January a few days ago

Not on the Weeklies. Its been above average to below average to above average to average

But what will they say next run? The variability is crazy this year.

The op runs and ensembles from the Euro and GFS werent cold past day 7/8 today. It will probably show something different tonight.

Today's GFS run is quite mild long range FWIW

Its one crazy backdoor front. 70s to 40s back to 70s in 72 hours.

That's wild, hopefully it makes up for lost time soon.

CAD is hard to predict

I hope the entire forum gets snow