If that system goes west of us we will get SE flow and orographical uplift on the Blue Ridge. I could easily see 4-6" of rain with more along the crest.
The rain amounts are definitely a lot lower on most models. Looks like less than an inch for most of WNC now and possibly less than .50 for the northern foothills and piedmont.
The NAM is gone too early. It still has some gas in the tank. I can already foresee this winter having a CAD situation where we are wishing to see what the NAM is showing.
CAD seems likely. I'm more interested in what may potentially develop in the Gulf or off the SE Coast. Euro and other models hinting at something. Potential heavy rains.
With this super el Nino we should probably expect the unexpected. Just need cold and subtropical jet to meet up one time and we could be looking at Jan 2016 or December 2009 redux