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wncsnow

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Everything posted by wncsnow

  1. wncsnow
    So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?
  2. wncsnow
    I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then.
  3. wncsnow
    Not for this week
  4. wncsnow
    I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern.
  5. wncsnow
    21 here much colder than I expected
  6. wncsnow
    4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....
  7. wncsnow
    The big question for me is, what happens later in January and Feb/early March? Do we continue the trend of early springs or can the -NAO make an appearance later in the season when the wavelengths are shorter and the big dog potential goes up?
  8. wncsnow
    If anyone was wondering, last nights fantasy storm is gone on today's Euro. Just another brief cooldown before warming up to start the New Year!
  9. wncsnow
    We could use some rain, just don't want to 30s and 40s and cloudy CAD days
  10. wncsnow
    And after that period it looks to go right back to warm
  11. wncsnow
    There's very little to be optimistic about right now. Add in the fact that it doesnt snow during February or March during Ninas and we got an uphill battle
  12. wncsnow
    Lol
  13. wncsnow
    24 this morning
  14. wncsnow
    just gonna enjoy the old school weather local forecast Christmas music and reminisce back to when it did snow
  15. wncsnow
    The last major winter storm in February or later during a weak to moderate La Nina was March 1 2008 with exactly what Eric Webb said- A bowling ball cut off upper low. There have been 7 weak to moderate La Ninas since then, none of them had major winter storms after January,
  16. wncsnow
    We really might have had our coldest temps and closest call for snow this winter already. That -PNA looks here to stay
  17. wncsnow
    We need that every year but this year we might need a miracle with that +EPO
  18. wncsnow
    This is why having a raging Pacific and strongly negative PNA kills winter- It floods the conus with Pacific Air and leads to the SE Death Ridge.
  19. wncsnow
    We haven't had a big, slow moving cut off upper low in a long time so maybe were due? Otherwise, La Nina is flexing too much for my liking.
  20. wncsnow
    I think the best question right now is, what can get the Pacific to calm down? As shown in the chart above, the PNA will be more strongly negative than the NAO and should win that contest as the main pattern driver. There looks to be a transient cooldown in late December but as of now, it wont last more than a few days.
  21. wncsnow
    Thats awful. RIP
  22. wncsnow
    Dang what happened?
  23. wncsnow
    Exactly. The only thing that gives me a little hope is the cold air in Canada. If that leaves or moves, we are in big trouble.
  24. wncsnow
    Hope I'm wrong but I am just not seeing more than another transient shot of cold from the -NAO (with no subtropical jet which means its probably going to be dry) followed by more meh as the NAO goes back to neutral or positive. I probably sound like a broken record but without the Pacific calming down for more than a couple days, its going to be extremely hard to get winter storm threats.
  25. wncsnow
    But look how fast its going back to neutral. EPS shows this as well and had a quick cool (not even cold) shot then back to average or above by the end of the period.
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