It's weird because it looks like decent echoes on simulated radar for hours yet totals are meager. 2-4 generally for us despite decent returns. Dry air.
Yeah I think its all perspective. Generally I only look at the NAM 3K for p types and to get a general idea where heaviest precip will be. HRRR looks ok. Nothing special and not like the Euro though.
We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us.