wncsnow

Look another hater! My track record has been pretty good lately. I called the clipper pattern we saw the last week or so and this upcoming mild period over 2 weeks ago. I hope I'm wrong but unless we see major changes soon it will be at least 15-20 days before this pattern starts breaking down and that gets us to 2026. Some of you have short memories because the main reason the past 5 winters have mostly sucked is because the raging Pacific jet. We were looking for pattern changes almost every winter since 2019. Its as strong now as any of the past 5 years. Look at the record breaking, catastrophic flooding in Washington state. This should be a lesson that with even a super frigid Canada, a favorable MJO and a decent NAO, the PNA and Pacific jet extension is hard to overcome.

From Jason Boyer- AVL’s 30-year average snowfall has dropped from 14” to 10.2”. That’s 27% less snow annually.

We're in this pattern for a while I'm afraid. I think after New Years. Maybe middle of January.

Some more quick data- The last widespread winter storm in between Christmas and New Years was the Christmas storm in 2010. Before that, only Eastern NC got any appreciable snow in the 2000s during that time frame (Dec 2004) In the 90s there was also only 1 widespread winter storm the entire decade for this time period as well (1997). In the 80s there was a mountain Christmas day snow (1981) for higher elevations for no other storms that decade. In the 70s, there were a couple smaller storms during that time but no major storms. Overall, each decade has only seen 1 usually small storm during that time frame which is typically less than other weeks in December, January, February and early March. For example, the time frame between December 4-10 has seen 2 major winter storms in the past decade alone.

Glad you asked. The period between December 26-January 1 is historically one of the least snowy periods for our area from December to March. I will back up with maps later (busy day at work)

It will be quite the spectacle to see what wins out. The raging Pacific or growing -AO/-NAO

I just hope we start seeing legit signs of something better in January before January turns into February

I don't even have an account on there.

There are multiple areas they list as having .1 that is not accurate though. Most of us foothills folks can tell you that. Regardless, places other than TN border areas and higher elevations have not seen a winter storm in NC this season.

I would say its generous to say 50% of NC has seen "measurable snow". 80% of those measurable snow areas have seen 1 inch or less. I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays.

That map is not even close to reality for almost everyone South of I40. Some areas east of Charlotte got a dusting but that's it.

I told my dad that literally a few hours ago. Its hard to see what can change up the new base state and the subtropical jet is straight up dead.

These overnight lows would be nearing records for warmth

Define "most of NC has measurable snow already"

Last night's Euro and EPS went back to warm/torch

18 here

Its like all new technology. Easy to abuse. Not well regulated and the longterm effects of using it aren't really known. I know a lot of folks love it because it does a lot of their work for them but it also takes human skill and the human touch out of things.

I'm not a huge fan of AI but I have Google Gemini at work and plan on using it to make some charts with regards to snowfall patterns/data.

I did notice that on the EPS. Its still steps away from a winter storm pattern but it could trend toward a CAD threat pattern.

We need a reshuffle I won't argue that. Maybe we can finally get that Greenland block in early January. I'm still concerned that the Pacific may not play nice for the majority of the winter, similar to the past 5 or 6 winters.

The EPS has been the GEFS daddy for as long as we can remember and you know this

I have been perusing data again and was looking at the most snowy 5 year periods for the foothills from the last 75 years. Most Snowy- 1960-1965- 70-80 inches of snow. Winter of 1960 had around 30-40 inches alone (most of it coming in Feb and March). 1968-1973. 70-80 inches of snow. Winter of 1968/69 was the snowiest on record for a lot of our region. 35-45 inches of snow fell that winter alone. 1943-1948- 65-75 inches of snow. Around 15 inches each season. 2014-2019- 60-70 inches of snow. Big storms in 2016 and 2018 helped this period make the list.

The snow drought continues in WNC. And the dry conditions will continue through the end of the month. Its almost a guarantee December will be way below average rain for most of the state.

Here is another map at 6 days.